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Stefan Åström

Application of air quality strategies of Western Europe for modeling of the transboundary air pollution impact on the Russian Federation with the GAINS model. Stefan Åström. Disposition. Emissions of air pollutants , environmental and health effects Scenario description

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Stefan Åström

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  1. Application of air quality strategies of Western Europe for modeling of the transboundary air pollution impact on the Russian Federation with the GAINS model Stefan Åström

  2. Disposition • Emissions of air pollutants, environmental and healtheffects • Scenario description • Scenario results • Results from the latestreported GAINS modelanalysesperformed by IIASA for the CLRTAP • Summary

  3. Emissions of air pollutants, environmental and healtheffects • Air pollutants cause adverseimpact on the environment and human health • Human exposure to fine particulatematter is consideredtohavemanyadverseimpacts on children, adults as well as elderly • The GAINS modelcan (inter alia) calculate emissions of, and impact from small particulatematter • The health end pointsconsidered in the GAINS modelare: • reductionoflifeexpectancy from ambient concentrationsofparticulatematter • fatalities from ambient concentrationofozone

  4. Scenario description – Using the GAINS modeltoexplore scenario-specificeuropeanimpact on Russia • The scenarios present different extreme and intermediatelevelsofEuropean emissions ofprimaryfine particulatematterand the impact on lifeexpectancy in the RussianFederation in 2010 • The scenarios presentedarebased on the latest national projectionsdeliveredto CLRTAP for the revision of the Gothenburg protocol • The scenarios focus on controling emissions ofprimaryparticulatematter (PM) from stationarysources • The technologiesusedtoreduce emissions areestablished, but implementation time is omitted

  5. The current situation - emissions of fine particulatematter (PM2.5) • In the National 2010 Baseline, the European (inclRussia) emissions of PM2.5 is estimatedto be ~3500 kton in 2010 • These emissions cause a reduction in averagelifeexpectancyof 6.8 months per person in Russia, dueto exposure tohighbackgroundconcentrationsof PM2.5 (reduction in lifeexpectancyduetoambient air concentrationof PM2.5)

  6. Whatwouldhavehappenedif Western Europedid not control PM2.5 emissions? • If 29 Europeancountries (not includingRussia) wouldhave a VERY low ambition level: • The European emissions of PM2.5 would be ~13500 ktonof PM2.5 in 2010 • Thesehigher emissions would cause a reduction in averagelifeexpectancyof7.8 months per person in Russia (reduction in lifeexpectancydueto ambient air concentrationof PM2.5) (verylow ambition levelincludes a useofcyclone emission removaltechnology in for 50 % of the fuelused in the Power plants, Industry and conversionsectors)

  7. Whatifsomecountriesweretouse all technologiesavailabletoreduceprimary PM2.5 emissions from stationarysources? • Polish max PM2.5 reductionefforts in 2010: • European emissions wouldhavebeen ~12500 kton PM2.5 • reduced ave. lifeexpectancy in Russiawould be 7.7 months / person • Polish + Belarus max PM2.5 reduction in 2010: • European emissions wouldhavebeen~12250 kton PM2.5 • reducedave. lifeexpectancy in Russiawould be 7.5 months / person (Max PM reductioneffortsincludeuseofhighefficiencydeduster emission removaltechnology in 100 % of the fuelused in the Power plants, Industry and conversionsectors, as well as a 100 % useofmostefficienttechnology in othersectors)

  8. And whatif 29 countrieswouldhaveusedall technologiesavailabletoreduceprimary PM2.5 emissions from stationarysources? • Euro29 max PM reductionefforts in 2010: • European emissions wouldhavebeen~2900 kton PM2.5 • reducedave. lifeexpectancy in Russiawould be 6.7 months / person

  9. And whatif the European part ofRussiaalsowouldhaveimplemented all technologies? • Four scenarios for the European part ofRussia in 2010: • 100 % Highefficiencydeduster in power plants and industry • Europe emissions ~2850 kton PM2.5, Russian loss in ave. lifeexpectancy 6.5 months / person • Maximum efforts in households and waste management etc • Europeemissions ~2750 ktonPM2.5, Russianloss in ave. lifeexpectancy 6.1 months / person • Maximum efforts in process industry • Europeemissions ~2570 ktonPM2.5, Russian loss in ave. lifeexpectancy5.5 months / person) • Cumulativeeffectof the above • Europeemissions ~2380 kton PM2.5, Russian loss in ave. lifeexpectancy4.7 months / person)

  10. And whatif the European part ofRussiaalsowouldhaveimplemented all technologies? • PM2.5 Emission reductions in EuropeanRussiawillhave an impact on the rest ofEurope • The anticipatedyearsoflifelost in EuropeoutsideRussiawould be reduced by 10 million lifeyears.

  11. Summary • Emissions of air pollutants cause significanteffect on the environment and human health • International collaboration has led toreduced emission levelsof air pollutants • Morecan still be donetoreduceimpactof air pollutants • For Russia, verymuch is still to be done by domesticmeasures • The GAINS modelcan be usedtoanalyse emissions, costs, environmental and healthimpact from different national and international air qualitystrategies

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