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PHYTOCLIMATIC ASSESSMENT OF AIR TEMPERATURES TRANSITION ACROSS IMPORTANT BOUNDARY VALUES

PHYTOCLIMATIC ASSESSMENT OF AIR TEMPERATURES TRANSITION ACROSS IMPORTANT BOUNDARY VALUES. Dr. Valentin Kazandjiev and Dr. Nikola Slavov National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology – BAS 1784, Sofia, 66 Tsarigradsko shausse – Bulgaria E-mail Valentin.Kazandjiev@meteo.bg.

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PHYTOCLIMATIC ASSESSMENT OF AIR TEMPERATURES TRANSITION ACROSS IMPORTANT BOUNDARY VALUES

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  1. PHYTOCLIMATIC ASSESSMENT OF AIR TEMPERATURES TRANSITION ACROSS IMPORTANT BOUNDARY VALUES Dr. Valentin Kazandjiev and Dr. Nikola SlavovNational Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology – BAS1784, Sofia, 66 Tsarigradsko shausse – Bulgaria E-mail Valentin.Kazandjiev@meteo.bg

  2. Globalandregionalinvestigationofthermalconditionsisascientificproblem, permanentlyin the field of vision of agro-climatologists in the World. Much of these investigations abroad and in Bulgaria discuss the course of long time variations, cycles of their periodicity and especially records of air temperatures variations average per year, six months, seasons and months. • All estimations of steady transition air temperatures across 0, 5, 10 and 15ºC in the spring and autumn are made with high attention, because they have important scientific and practical meaning i.e. they are the borderline between cold and warm part of the year and draw the duration of vegetative and non-vegetative periods for different bio-systems.

  3. In regions with moderate climate Climatologists usually characterize seasons with equal duration, approximately – 3 months as follow – winter (December, January, February), spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July, August) and autumn (September, October, November). • Actually this equal season’s duration do not opportunity for clear assessment peculiarity of meteorological conditions with connection of development mode for different plant ecosystems in different country regions, for different years.

  4. First of all we take that steady transition of air temperature across 0°C is an evidence for cold period change with warm and biological active for plants period, with arriving of this temperature transition finish the quiet period for plants. • Steady stay of average daily air temperatures above 5°C is important Climatic and Ecological indicator for the spring start, which shows end of snow melt and stabilization of General Atmospheric Circulation (GAC) and spring synoptic processes. After this temperature boundary start vegetation for all hibernate plants, early developing bush and tree species

  5. Contrary process of lasting transition of air temperature below 15°C define end of summer and it is connected with fruits growth. • Steady transition of air temperature below 10°C mark the end of active grow and it is accepted as the end of PVP and ripening of fruits for a lot of plants. • Steady transition of temperatures below 5°C shows end of autumn season and it is connected with vegetation stop for more of plans, autumnal color of leaves, falling of leaves etc. • Temperature transition across 0°C is connected with change of warm-biologically active for vegetation period with cold, snow, non active period of winter season.

  6. MATERIAL AND METHOD • Assessments which we made on the dates of steady transition of air temperatures across boundary values 0, 5, 10 and 15°C using data for various years reach to 140 stations and pointsregular situated on the territory of Bulgaria and cover contemporary climate period (1961-1990). • Results which we receive was verify on the independent time series on the same observation points but for the 1991-2000 period. Stations disposition are shown on fig. 1.

  7. Situation of used stations for territory of Bulgaria

  8. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION • We start with search of dependence between average dates of different transitions coming of air temperature, because they fix beginning and termination of the periods, which characterize grow and development of plants and duration of seasons in the course of the years. • In Bulgaria first attempt on the investigation of average, initial and final dates for transitions come across air temperature boundaries 0, 5, 10 and 15°C are made by L. Subev, Sv. Stanev, E. Hershkovic and other use data for air temperature for 1916-1945 and published in “Agroclimatic Reference book of Bulgaria” (1960).

  9. r=0.95 Er=12.78 (1) r=0.94 Er=18.47 (2) r=0.84 Er=33.24 (3) r=0.99 Err=3.69 (4) r=0.96 Er=25.25 (5)

  10. This investigation continue with finding and discover of relations between average dates of different air temperature transitions coming in reverse range i.e. when the temperatures decrease and which define end of grow, development and end of this season by different years. r=0.99 Er=2.56 (7) r=0.99 Er=6.8 (8) r=0.99 Er=5.57 (9)

  11. On the end of this investigation we try to find relations connected with average date of transition coming across 0°C i.e. average date for cold period set. For this we use data for temperature transition across 15°C boundary on summer termination, transition across 10°C on the end of PVP and transition across 5°C on the autumn end. These dependencies are present on fig. 20, 21 and 22 and their analytical description are given by equations (10), (11) and (12):

  12. r=0.79 Er=99.55 (10) r=0.79 Er=99.39 (11) r=0.80 Er=97.81 12)

  13. CONCLUSIONS • Analyzing results of this investigation biological estimation of steady air temperatures transitions across 0, 5, 10 and 15°C dates are made. • Close connection between them by coming spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons are find and they are present with equations (1-12). • Received relations are verified for the same stations but for different years (1991-2000). • Maps for start and termination of temperatures transitions and duration of bio-climatic seasons on Bulgaria territory are drawn.

  14. Spatial presentation of warm period durationin Bulgaria (1991-2000)

  15. Spatial presentation of cold period duration in Bulgaria (1991-2000)

  16. Spatial presentation of summer duration in Bulgaria (1991-2000)

  17. BIBLIOGRPHY • Borzenkova M.1999. On the Nature Indicators Contemporary Warming, J. of Meteorology and Hydrology, 6/98-110. (in Russian) • GoulinovaN.1974. Methodsforagroclimaticprocessingdataseries. Gidrometeoizdat. (in Russian) • DavitayaF. 1964. Prognosisoftemperatureconditionssupplyandsomepeculiarity seasonal development of nature. GIMISM. 132. (in Russian) • KostykovV., M. Chernikova 1997. Assessment of variability agro-climatic resources, J. Meteorology and Hydrology 11/102-114. (in Russian) • Kiuchukova M. Et all 1983. AirTemperature. Climatic Handbook of Bulgaria, 3/15-367. • LebedevA. N. 1964. DurationofrainfallontheterritoryofUSSR, Gidrometeoizdat, L., 203 p. (in Russian) • Minin A., A. Lissev 1991. Amplitudes of variations dates of spring season set on the Russian lowland, J. of Meteorology and Hydrology, 11/62-87. (in Russian) • MininA. 1994. VariabilityofsteadytransitionaveragedailyairtemperaturesdatesbythresholdvaluesontheRussianlowland, J. OfMeteorologyandHydrology, 4/66-71. (in Russian) • Mirvis V., N. Gousseva, A. Meshterskaya1996. Trend, variabilitytimeserieslimitationsforawarmandvegetativesesonsontheterritoryofUSSRforalongtimeperiod, J. OfMeteorologyandHydrology, 9/106-114. (in Russian) • Naumova L. 1986. On the dates of steady transition of meteorological values across different levels, GGO, v. 501/41-53. (in Russian) • Rankova E, G. Gruza 1998. Indicators of Climate Change in Russia, J. Meteorology and Hydrology 1/5-18. (in Russian) • Slavov N. 1969. Onthecriteriaformaizevegetativeseasondefinition, J. OfAgricultureScience 2/69-76. • Slavov N., G. Georgiev and V. Alexandrov 1988. Long-term variations of air temperature and transitions across 0, 5, 10 and 15°C, Proceedigs of First National Conference of Climatology, 199-205. • Slavov N., G. Georgiev 1990. Long-termvariationsofvegetativeperiodduration, J. MeteorologyandHydrologyProblems, 7/70-80. • Slavov N., V. Kazandjiev 2003. Investigation on forest-climatic indicators for spring season set in Bulgaria, Proceedings 75-years forest institute in Bulgaria p.155-161. • Stanev S. 1955. On the regime of temperature in Bulgaria, Works of the HMS, 4/107-175. • Stanev S. 1991. ThermalConditionsinBulgaria, in “TheClimateinBulgaria” BAS-Publishing 151-208. • HershkovicE. 1984. Agro-climaticResourcesinBulgaria, BAS-Publishing, 116 стр. • х х х 1960. Agro-climatic reference book, 202 p. • х х х 1980. Agro-climatic Atlas of Bulgaria, 117 стр. • Houghton J., L. Meira Filhe, B. Callandar 1995. The Science of Climate Change, IPCC, 572 p. • Karl T., Kaight R., D. Easterling, R. Qugyle 1996. Indices of Climate Change in United States, BAMS 77/279-292. • Slavov N., I. Raev 2001. Forest-climate assessment on the duration of potential vegetative period in Bulgaria, J. Silva Balcanica 1/35-46. • Trenberth K. 1990. Recent observed Interdecadal Climate Change in the Northern Hemisphere, BAMB 71/988-993.

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