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Snowpack Modeling at CAIC: Enhancing Avalanche Safety through Advanced Weather Forecasting

Explore the evolution of snowpack modeling at the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) since 2010, including the integration of WRF simulations and off-the-shelf snowpack models. Learn about the operational tools developed by CAIC for avalanche warning groups and their efforts in snowpack density evolution.

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Snowpack Modeling at CAIC: Enhancing Avalanche Safety through Advanced Weather Forecasting

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  1. SNOWPACK Modeling at the CAIC Colorado Avalanche Information Center

  2. CAIC’s Modeling History • Manual weather obs for highway operations from 1950 in some areas and 1995 along most sections • Formal database of automated wx data began in 2007 • CAIC WRF simulations became operational in 2010 • CAIC SNOWPACK simulations began in 2012

  3. CAIC WRF • Weather Research and Forecasting Model • Nested grids • 12km over western US (230x200x37) • 4km over Colorado (187x187x37) • 84 hr forecast, 4 times a day • Model run on two, 16-core computers

  4. CAIC WRF • Initialized with LAPS (Local Analysis and Prediction System) • Uses RAP (Rapid Refresh model) as background • Incorporates CAIC and MADIS datasets • Forecasts use NAM 13km for lateral boundary

  5. SNOWPACK • Off-the-shelf snowpack model from SLF • Similar to model developed by Metero France • Forced by either weather obs or weather model • Used operationally by SLF Avalanche Warning group • ASARC developed operational tool for CAC

  6. 2012-13 Density Evolution at RMP

  7. CAIC SNOWPACK Effort • 2012-13 season: SNOWPACK simulation of cover on Red Mountain Pass from CSAS Swamp Angel study site • 2013-14 season: SNOWPACK simulations driven by observations for • Red Mountain Pass • Grand Mesa • Arapahoe Basin • Cameron Pass

  8. CAIC Modeling Effort • 2013-14 season: SNOWPACK simulations driven by CAIC WRF model data • Simulations every 6 hrs • 1 simulation for every WRF grid cell over 2700 m • 3599 simulations • Current visualization • Snowpack temperature • Snowpack density • Snowpack grain size

  9. Questions?

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