Global macro-economic, energy and environmental scenarios Brian D. Fath

1. Global macro-economic, energy and environmental scenarios Brian D. Fath DYN, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria Biology Department, Towson University Towson, Maryland, USA

2. Outline • Overview of IIASA Activity • Ecosystem Indicators as guide for environmental management • Proposed CEEH Research

3. IIASA: Science for Global Insight Leen Hordijk Director International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburg, Austria

4. Vienna-Schwechat Airport Location of IIASA

5. IIASA Premises Housed in Schloss Laxenburg, a renovated 18th century Habsburg palace, 30 minutes south of Vienna, Austria

6. History • 1967 initiative of US Pres. Johnson and Soviet PM Kosygin • Create research center as “neutral bridge between east & west” • Original Charter signed in 1972 by 12 countries • 1994 Ministerial Conference: renewed mandate as independent, scientific institution • In addition to East–West, also North–South

7. Identity • A renowned research institute that is • International • Interdisciplinary (40% social science) • Independent • Sponsored by National Member Organizations from 19countries • International scientific staff (~184 persons, 85 person years from 27 nations)

8. Austria China Czech Republic Egypt Estonia Finland Germany Hungary India (NEW) Japan Netherlands Norway Pakistan (NEW) Poland Russian Federation South Africa (NEW) Sweden Ukraine United States of America 19 Members in:

9. Research themes and programs 2006-2010 ENERGY and TECHONOLOGYDynamic Systems EnergyTransitions to New Technologies ENVIRONMENT and NATURAL RESOURCESAtmospheric Pollution and Economic Development Land-Use Change and Agriculture Evolution and EcologyForestry

10. Research themes and programs 2006-2010 POPULATION and SOCIETYPopulation and Climate ChangeWorldPopulationProcesses of International Negotiation Risk and Vulnerability SPECIAL PROJECTSHealth and Global ChangeIntegrated Modeling EnvironmentGreenhouse Gas InitiativeWater

11. Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) • Advanced students • June – August • Work with IIASA programs • Funded by NMO & other sources • Publication • January application deadline

14. Strategic goals and objectives DYNAMIC SYSTEMS PROGRAM • MethodologicalDevelopment • To develop analytic and numerical methods for estimation and control of large-scale dynamic systems • Application • To apply these methods to particular systems in IIASA’s research on global change: • Economic • Technology • Energy • Environment

15. DYNAMIC SYSTEMS PROGRAM DYN Program Matrix

17. Ecosystem Indicators as guide for Environmental Management 1) Open systems: input-output models Ecological and Human systems 2) Network Analysis: understanding connectivity and indirect effects 3) Ecosystem Growth and Development

18. Open systems …connect to their environment through both inputs and outputs Environment Sink System Source Input-State-Output

19. High quality Energy Input Low quality Energy output (waste heat) System (human or natural) Open Systems …build and maintain order and organization by taking in high quality energy, using it, and passing degraded energy outside of the system.

20. System Input Output Ecological and human systems are open Sustainabilityis dependent on the energy-matter flows that support it AND having a sink for the waste.

21. Simplified Ecosystem

22. Simplified Human System

23. Economy as a closed system A perpetual motion machine

24. energy waste heat raw materials material waste Economy as an open system Environment

25. System Input ? Output Input Sustainability Challenges Limited Supply?

26. Energy Estimation Using Peak Production (M.K. Hubbert)

28. North Sea Oil and Gas Production

29. Global Oil and Gas Production

30. System Input Output ? Output Sustainability Challenges Limited Sink?

31. Environmental Impacts of Fossil Fuel Use Limited Sink for output Acid mine drainage Photochemical smog Climate Change Oil spills

32. System ? Input Output Sustainability Challenges System Dynamics ?

33. Environment Ecosystem ? Input Output Ecosystems have evolved and developed within these input-output environmental constraints. Thermodynamically, what patterns of organization arise in ecosystems?

34. Ecosystem Development Trends (Odum 1969) Ecosystem Attribute Developmental Mature Stage Stage Community energetics Food chains linear weblike Gross production/community respiration (P/R ratio) >1 ~1 Biomass supported/unit energy flow (B/E ratio) low high Production/ Biomass (P/B ratio) high low Nutrients Mineral cycles open closed Nutrient exchange rate rapid slow Overall homeostasis Internal symbiosis undeveloped developed Entropy high low Information low high

35. Ecosystem Growth and Development 0. Boundary Growth: Energy enters the system. I. Structural Growth: Increase in biomass. II. Network Growth: Development of system connectivity. III. Information Growth: Development of system behaviorfrom exploitative patterns to more efficient ones.

36. Ecological Goal Functions 1 Minimize specific entropy production (Prigogine 1947). Decrease in the respiration to biomass ratio. 2 Maximize energy throughflow (Odum 1983). Increase in the internalenergy flow. 3 Maximize exergy degradation (Kay 1984). As the amount of exergy captured increases, so does the amount dissipated. 4 Maximize exergy storage (Jørgensen & Mejer 1977). Exergy storage (biomass) and information increase due to shift to more complex species composition. 5 Maximize retention time (Cheslak & Lamarra 1981). Biological components develop mechanisms to increase time lags to maintain the energy stores longer.

37. B A t s Ecosystem orientor E F D C Time G H I J K Dynamic orientor, response to disturbance

38. Conservation – mature stage Exergy stored Release – creative destruction Reorganization Exploitation – pioneer stage Connectedness Long-term dynamics System gets “reset”

39. Develop- mental potential Connectedness

40. Exergy stored Connectedness Real long-term, after series of disturbances

41. Human modifications to ecosphere • Current human society encourages high Production/Biomass (P/B) – which is indicative of immature ecosystems such as agriculture, aquaculture, forestry. • Nature’s strategy is the reverse, a high B/P– maximize structure for a given amount of productivity. • This conflict of growth versus development is at the core of our environmental management issues today.

42. Proposals for IIASA-CEEH collaboration I. Air Pollution Mortality and Long-run growth Ulla Lehmijoki (Helsinki University) and Elena Rovenskaya (IIASA/DYN) II. Analysis of Ecological Indicators and Network Methodologies Søren Nielsen(Copenhagen University) and Brian Fath (IIASA/DYN)

43. Network Perspective • actors/objects and their actions are viewed as interdependent rather than independent, autonomous units • linkages between actors/objects are channels for transfer or flow of resources (material or nonmaterial) • the network structural environment provides opportunities for or constraints on individual action • network structure gives lasting patterns of relations (ecological, social, economic, political, and so forth) among actors/objects • Wasserman and Faust 1994.

44. competition Humans Simplified fisheries model Seals Cod Everything else From Yodzis, P, 1998, J. Animal Ecology, 635-658.

45. Humans More realistic fisheries model A greater probability for decrease in total fisheries yield after reduction in seal biomass. Single species management gave poorest results. Yodzis, P, 1998, J. Animal Ecology, 635-658.

46. Thank you for your Attention!