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Web-ATCF, User Requirements and Intensity Consensus

Web-ATCF, User Requirements and Intensity Consensus. Presenter Buck Sampson (NRL Monterey) Funded Participants Ann Schrader (SAIC, Monterey) Providence Software (Don Hames, Jorge Rodrigues) NHC Participants Chris Sisko, Chris Lauer, Alison Krautkramer, James Franklin (NHC). IHC 2009

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Web-ATCF, User Requirements and Intensity Consensus

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  1. Web-ATCF, User Requirements and Intensity Consensus Presenter Buck Sampson (NRL Monterey) Funded Participants Ann Schrader (SAIC, Monterey) Providence Software (Don Hames, Jorge Rodrigues) NHC Participants Chris Sisko, Chris Lauer, Alison Krautkramer, James Franklin (NHC) IHC 2009 St Petersburg, FL

  2. Overview 1. Web-ATCF ( 90% complete) 2. User Requirements ( 90% complete) 3. Intensity Consensus (complete)

  3. 1. Web-ATCF • Client • Windows or Linux (MAC coming soon) • Launches from web page • Mobile code (Java Web Start) • Communication is • https (SSL) protocol • works through most firewalls • Same code base as “real” ATCF • Compiled and linked with different libraries • Some different switches in code

  4. 1. Web-ATCF

  5. 2. User Requirements • Approximately 50 requirements addressed • 2007 • Mouse-over Information • Sidebar • Run Your Own Consensus dialog • 2008 • Selectable objective aids • Partial best track display • Off-time best track positions • 2009 • New advisory dialog (in progress)

  6. Partial Best Track Display IKE (2008) track has been cut off at 00 UTC on Sep 8th so that the objective aids for that time can be displayed without clutter.

  7. Off-Synoptic Positions IKE (2008) track has a landfall at 02 UTC on Sep 8th that has been included in the best track.

  8. NHC Intensity Consensus • Forecasts are all “early models” • Consensus is average (equal weights) forecast • ICON = DSHP+ LGEM + GHMI + HWFI • all must be present to compute • IVCN = DSHP+ LGEM + GHMI + HWFI + GFNI • two or more must be present to compute • Baselines for more complex methods • More info: Sampson, C. R., J. L. Franklin, J. L., J. A. Knaff and M. DeMaria, 2007: Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Wea. And Forecasting, 23, 304-312.

  9. 2008 Atlantic Intensity Skill (381) (326) (262) (213) (169) (139) The four top-performing intensity models and their average (consensus). The consensus generally outperforms individual models. ICON is the four-model consensus, and IVCN is a five-model consensus (IVCN=ICON+GFNI).

  10. 2008 EastPac Intensity Skill (308) (240) (177) (121) (80) (50) The four top-performing intensity models and their average (consensus). The consensus generally outperforms individual models. ICON is the four-model consensus, and IVCN is a five-model consensus (IVCN=ICON+GFNI).

  11. Intensity Consensus Summary • ICON and IVCN both had good years • GFDN intensity forecasts improvements may improve IVCN • 1D coupling in October 15th , 2008 • 3D coupling in progress

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