Renewable Energy Wim C. Turkenburg (CLA) Utrecht University, The Netherlands
Treatment of Renewables in GEA • Main chapters in GEA on possibilities renewable energy • Lead Authors GEA chapter 11 on ‘Renewable Energy’ • Chapter 7: Energy Resources and Potentials - CLA: Hans HolgerRogner • Chapter 11: Renewable Energy - CLA: WimTurkenburg • Chapter 17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development – CLA: KeywanRiahi • Chapter 20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy - CLA: Suani T. Coelho • Doug Arent (USA) • RuggeroBertani (Italy) • Andre Faaij (the Netherlands) • Maureen Hand (USA) • Wolfram Krewitt † (Germany) • Eric Larson (USA) • John Lund (USA) • Mark Mehos (USA) • Tim Merrigan (USA) • Catherine Mitchell (UK) • José Roberto Moreira (Brazil) • WimSinke (the Netherlands) • Virginia Sonntag-O’Brien (France) • Bob Thresher (USA) • WimTurkenburg (the Netherlands) • Wilfried van Sark (the Netherlands) • Eric Usher (France)
World Primary Energy Supply in 2009 (using GEA substitution method to calculate contribution from renewables) Fossil fuels: 412 EJ ( 78 % ) - oil 167 EJ - coal 139 EJ - gas 106 EJ ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Renewables: 89 EJ ( 17 % ) - traditional biomass 39EJ - large hydro 30 EJ *) - ‘new’ renewables 20 EJ *) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Nuclear: 27 EJ ( 5 % ) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Total: 528 EJ ( 100% ) *) Assuming for hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, and ocean electricity: 1 EJ(el) = 2.85 EJ savings on fossil fuels, and for solar and geothermal heat: 1 EJ(th) = 1.17 EJ savings on fossil fuels
Contribution Modern Renewables (2009) (using the GEA substitution calculation method) - Hydropower: 32 EJ - Modern biomass energy: 12.1 EJ - Wind electricity: 3.7 EJ - Geothermal energy: 1.2 EJ - Low temp. solar thermal energy: 0.5 EJ - Solar PV electricity: 0.33 EJ - Solar thermal electricity (CSP): 0.02 EJ - Ocean energy: 0.005 EJ ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Total: 49.9 EJ *) Assuming for hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, and ocean electricity: 1 EJ(el) = 2.85 EJ savings on fossil fuels, and for solar and geothermal heat: 1 EJ(th) = 1.17 EJ savings on fossil fuels
Impact of the calculation method Primary supply ‘modern renewables’ in 2009 using different calculation methods
Technical potential renewables (EJ/yr) : WEA estimates relate to the amount stored underground; GEA estimates relate to annual terrestrial heat flow. : Differences in outcome between WEA and GEA due to different calculation methods. : One reason for the difference between WEA and GEA is the inclusion of offshore wind in GEA. : Excluding marine biomass. Differences between WEA and GEA mainly due to using different sustainability criteria. : The differences mainly relate to OTEC estimates. Also, WEA present figures after, GEA before the conversion.
Status wind energy, end 2009 *) in 2010 nearly 200 GWe, and in 2011 about 240 GWe
Status Solar PV, end 2009 *) In 2010 about 40 GWe, and in 2011 about 70 GWe
Installed capacities in 1998 and 2010 Installed capacities to generate electricity, process heat, and liquid fuels
Global transactions renewables Global transactions in 2010 (blnUS$2005) - Includes all investments as well as acquisition. - In total: 231 blnUS$2005 - Excluding large hydro: about 190 US$2005, nearly a 100-fold increase compared with 1990.
Cost development non-fossil technologies Solar PV modules Solar PV systems Nuclear power wind turbines heatpumps US$ per kW installed versuscumulative deployment
Some general findings and trends • The renewable resource based is sufficient to meet several times the present world primary energy demand, and potentially even more than 10 times this demand. • Since 1990 energy provided by renewables has risen with 2% a year, but in recent years with 5% a year. • In last 5 years: many renewable technologies have experienced a high annual growth rate – some (biofuels, wind, solar electricity, solar thermal, and geothermal heat) even experiencing two-digit growth (up to 50% a year). • In 2010 more than $230 bln investments ($-2005) in renewables. Investments in ’new renewables’ from about $2 bln in 1990, to about $190 bln in 2010. • Contribution to primary energy supply in 2009: 17% (89 EJ); contribution to electricity supply: 19% (3800 TWh). • Renewable power capacity additions in 2010 represented more than one-third of all global power capacity additions. • → Renewables are beginning to change the energy paradigm!
Major developments in 2011 • Renewables continued to grow strongly in all end-use sectors (power; heating and cooling; transport). • Global investments in renewables increased by 17%, compared with 2010. • Net investments in renewable power capacity (including larger-scale hydropower) exceeded that of fossil fuels. • About half of the new electricity capacity installed worldwide was renewable based. • European Union installed more renewable energy capacity during 2011 than ever before. • Globally, an estimated 5 million people work directly or indirectly in renewable energy industries. • At least 118 countries now have renewable energy targets in place, and 109 countries have policies to support renewables in the power sector.
New Investments in Clean Energy • 2012 investment levels worldwide declined 11 percent from 2011 • Q1 of 2013 has shown a further decline. • Average clean energy investment increased by at least $90 billion triennially, from an average of $64 billion in the 2004-06 period to an average of $156 billion in 2007-09 and $245 billion in 2010-12 (bln US$2012)
Investments in GEA energy pathways (billions of US$/year)
Some conclusions about role renewables in 2050 • Some conclusions based on the outcomes of the GEA Energy Pathways toward a Sustainable Future: • Renewables have to play a major role in achieving low carbon energy supplies for everyone in the coming decades. • Strong growth in renewable energy, beginning immediately and reaching 165-650 EJ a year by 2050 - about 30-75% of primary energy demand (and in some regions more than 90% of this demand in 2050). • Growth in bioenergy to 80-140 EJ a year by 2050. Strong growth of liquid biofuels in the short to medium term. Thereafter, the mix of liquid and gaseous fuels depends on transportation system choices. • Need to develop biomass plus CCS to achieve negative CO2 emission in longer term. • Increasing requirement for storage technologies, apart from other measures, to support system integration of intermittent renewables.
Integrating renewables Typical wind load profiles over a 7 day interval Source: R. Goic et al, “Simulation of aggregate wind farm short-term production variations”, Renewable Energy, 35(2010)2602-2609.
Integrating renewables Electricity from solar PV in Germany in 2011 and 20012 Source: BDEW, ‘ErneuerbareEnergien und das EEG: Zahlen, Fakten, Grafiken (2013).
Integrating renewables The integration of (especially) intermittent renewables into energy systems, while maintaining the reliability and affordability of energy supplies, is a major issue at integration levels above 20-50%. Options to be applied to address this issue: • Diversify renewable supply technologies across a large geographical region to leverage resource diversity. • Enlarge balancing regions to increase access to larger pools of generation and demand options • Ensure access to, and installation of new transmission lines (e.g. high-voltage direct current transmission cables). • Add flexible responses (load management), V2G systems, and storage capacity (on different time scales). • Improve measurement and forecasting of variable generation. • Use more comprehensive system-level planning. • Develop and apply smart grids and smart meters. • Introduce real time pricing for electricity consumption (on an hourly basis).
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