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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Potential Risk Reduction In Asia Kunming, China April 2004

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Potential Risk Reduction In Asia Kunming, China April 2004. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST). Industry. Government. DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCC

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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Potential Risk Reduction In Asia Kunming, China April 2004

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  1. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) PotentialRisk Reduction In Asia Kunming, China April 2004

  2. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Industry Government • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • System Safety • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO** • JAA • TCC • NATCA** • NTSB** AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing GE and RR ** Observer

  3. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST • Data analyses Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Safety enhancement development Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

  4. General Methodology for Calculating the Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Intervention =  ( ) Accident Risk Reduction , Effectiveness that an intervention has for reducing the accident rate if incorporated Portion of world fleet with intervention implemented

  5. Process Example - Values Used are Hypothetical Portion of Accident that would have been eliminated by Interventions =.59 Intervention is effective (1-.41) Output to Strategy 1 Accident Prevention .41 Intervention not effective on accident (.52x.797) .797 .52 Probability that EGPWS will not be effective Other Inter- ventions CFIT Training Aid EGPWS 60% Fleet Incorporation 40% of Fleet 80% Effective .4=1-.6 .12=.6(1-.80) .1 .697=.9(1-.226) Airplane has EGPWS installed but it is not effective. (portion with EGPWS x (1-effectiveness)) Airplane has Inter #2 installed but it is not effective. (portion with Inter #2 x (1-effectiveness)) Airplane does not have EGPWS installed (1-installed portion) Airplane does not have Inter #2 installed (1-installed portion) 5

  6. Spreadsheet Example – Historical Airplane Accidents and Proposed Safety Enhancements

  7. Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003* COSCAP CIS Just starting Europe 0.7 C.I.S.1 JSSI 35 SEs 5 SEs to EASA 11 complete 62% reduction JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 COSCAP’s Asia 9 SEs on plan 7 SEs in study 57% reduction United States and Canada 0.4 China 0.5 CAST 46 SEs 25 complete 21 in work 73% reduction Middle East 3.1 Asia 1.7 (Excluding China) Africa 13.3 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 ASET Just forming up PAAST CFIT, ALAR & RI SE-23 + Oceania 0.0 World 1.0 Accidents per million departures 1Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. * 2003 Preliminary Information 11/1/0 REG-053a

  8. Asia (Operator Domicile) 1987-2001 Part 121 Equivalent World Wide Hull Loss & Fatal AccidentsPortion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted (2007 CAST Plan Implementation Values) 100% 90% 80% Risk Eliminated 70% Remaining Risk 60% Fatality Risk 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% RE ICE CFIT ARC LOC-I FUEL USOS FIRE-NI SCF-PP Grand Total

  9. Asia (Operator Domicile)1987-2001 Part 121 Equivalent World Wide Hull Loss & Fatal AccidentsPortion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If COSCAP Plan (SE 1,2,3,10,11,12,14,15,16) is Adopted (2007 CAST Plan Implementation Values) 100% 90% Risk Eliminated 80% Remaining Risk 70% 60% Fatality Risk 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% RE ICE ARC CFIT LOC-I FUEL USOS FIRE-NI SCF-PP Grand Total

  10. Asia (Operator Domicile)1987-2001 Hull Loss & Fatal AccidentsScore of CAST Plan SEs Relative to Region (2007) CAST Plan Implementation Levels) 45 40 35 30 (% Fatality Risk Reduction) 25 Score 20 15 10 5 0 11. CFIT CRM Training 1. CFIT TAWS- one project 2. CFIT SOPs – one project 85. Vertical Situation Display 6. CFIT PAI-RNAV 3-D instrume.. 30. LOC Training- Human Facto.. 3. CFIT PAI-Vertical angles (PAI... 7. CFIT PAI-RNAV RNP instrume.. 8. CFIT PAI-XLS (ILS, MLS, GLS)... 26. LOC Policies and Procedur.. 14. ALAR Policies (Safety Cultu... 10. CFIT Proactive Safety Pro... 31. LOC Training – Advanced... 23. ALAR Flight Crew Training... 12. CFIT Prevention Training –... 13. CFIT ATC CFIT Training – ...

  11. Effect of SEs On the Fatality Risk - Asia

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