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American Public Power Association Pre-Rally Workshop February 28, 2006 Washington, D.C.

Climate Change: Making Community-Based Decisions in a Carbon Constrained World. American Public Power Association Pre-Rally Workshop February 28, 2006 Washington, D.C. Climate Vision, Power Partners SM , & GHG Activities for Public Power. Daniel E. Klein Twenty-First Strategies, LLC

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American Public Power Association Pre-Rally Workshop February 28, 2006 Washington, D.C.

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  1. Climate Change: Making Community-Based Decisions in a Carbon Constrained World American Public Power Association Pre-Rally Workshop February 28, 2006 Washington, D.C.

  2. Climate Vision, Power PartnersSM,& GHG Activities for Public Power Daniel E. Klein Twenty-First Strategies, LLC McLean, VA 22101 dklein@21st-strategies.com presented to American Public Power Association Climate Change SeminarFebruary 28, 2006

  3. What we’ll cover today • Background on U.S. GHG programs • Climate Vision • Power PartnersSM & industry activities • GHG accounting & upcoming activities • What’s a Power PartnerSM to do?

  4. Improve Energy Efficiency Reduce FuelCarbon Intensity • Renewables • Nuclear • Fuel Switching • Demand Side • Supply Side Technological Carbon Management Options Carbon emissions = $GDP X Btu/$GDP X carbon/Btu – sequestration Sequester Carbon • Capture & Store • Enhance Natural Sinks • All options needed to: • Maintain economic growth • Affordably meet energy demand • Address environmental objectives

  5.   emissions time Improving GHG intensity is a key component of the U.S. strategy Over time, improving GHG intensity could: • Slow the rate of GHG growth • Stabilize GHG emissions • Reduce absolute emissions … depending on the rate of improvement

  6. Addressing Climate and Energy Securityin the Global Climate Change Initiative • On February 14, 2002, President Bush set a goal to reduce U.S. GHG emissions intensity by 2012 • GHG “intensity” will be measured in terms of GHG per unit of GDP • This goal is equivalent to ~500 million metric tons of cumulative carbon equivalent reductions from 2002-2012 “My administration is committed to cuttingour nation’s greenhouse gas intensity... by 18 percent over the next 10 years.”

  7. GCCI Launched Several Initiatives • Multi-sector voluntary programs • Transformational technology RD&D efforts on renewables, clean energy • Expansion of global outreach and partnerships • Support for green trading • Exploration of innovative policy instruments

  8. Climate VISION Program Launch • Climate VISION – VoluntaryInnovative Sector Initiatives:Opportunities Now • A part of GCCI, launched February 12, 2003 • Part of a continuum of short- mid-, and long-term approaches to address climate change • Nature of problem requires development and use of transformational technologies

  9. Alliance of Automobile Mfgrs. Aluminum Association American Chemistry Council American Forest & Paper Association American Iron & Steel Institute American Petroleum Institute Assoc. of American Railroads The Business Roundtable Industrial Minerals Assoc. – N. America International Magnesium Association National Lime Association National Mining Association Portland Cement Association Power Partners Semiconductor Industry Association Climate VISION Private-Sector Partners Each partner has committed to contribute to President’s GHG intensity goal.

  10. Elements of Voluntary Programs

  11. Climate VISION Website www.climatevision.gov • Announced during COP-9 in December 2003 • Provides resources for partners and an avenue to communicate with public on progress • Averaging 10,000+ “hits” per month

  12. So … how is the U.S. doing so far? • Goal: 18% reduction in GHG intensity, 2002-12 • But BAU forecasts show ~14% improvement (~1.3%/year) • 18% implies average annual rate of ~1.7%/year • From 1990-2003, GHG intensity fell ~1.9%/year • First year: 2003 relative to 2002 (EIA data) • GHG emissions increased 1.0 percent • But $GDP grew 2.7 percent • So, GHG intensity fell 1.7 percent • Second year: 2004 relative to 2003 (prel.) • GHG emissions increased ~2.0 percent • But $GDP grew ~4.2 percent • So, GHG intensity fell ~2.1 percent • 2005 shows GDP up ~3.5%; CO2 maybe flat

  13. Power PartnersSM: Meeting the Challenge • In 2002, electric power sector created Power PartnersSM • Voluntary partnership with Federal government • Address the President’s voluntary climate initiative • Designed to deliver results in short, medium and long term • Participating in Climate VISION & Climate Leaders • Industries/companies commit to reduce GHG intensity • Power sector: Equivalent of 3-5% reduction in emissions intensity (CO2/MWh) by 2012

  14. Power PartnersSM: Historical Roots • U.S. electric power sector recognized early on as a world leader in voluntary approaches for reducing, avoiding or sequestering GHG emissions • Power industry came together in the 1990s • Successfully undertook voluntary climate initiatives through the Climate Challenge program • First major industry to do so • 281 MMT CO2 of reported reductions in 2002. • But … does this reputation for “early action” still hold?

  15. Power PartnersSMParticipants • American Public Power Association (APPA) • Edison Electric Institute (EEI) • Electric Power Supply Association (EPSA) • Large Public Power Council (LPPC) • National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA) • Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) • Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)

  16. Power SectorGoal • Achieve equivalent of 3-5% reduction in GHG intensity by 2012 through credible, verifiable reductions in GHG emissions or offsets • Collaborative, industry-wide initiatives • Individual actions that best suit company capabilities, resources and business strategies • Cross-sector programs and outreach • Signed Umbrella MOU with DOE • December 13, 2004 • Highlights roles of partners in achieving voluntary reductions

  17. Power Industry Initiatives - Update • PowerTree Carbon Co. – New reforestation effort • Sponsored by 25 U.S. power generators • Committed over $3 million for up to six projects – will remove and store over 1.5 million tons of CO2 • Program formally announced last year • C2P2 – Coal Combustion Products Partnership • Increase CCP use from approx. 14 million tons to 20 million tons of CO2 annually by 2010 • Increase utilization rate from current 32% to 45% by 2008 • 40+ utilities have become C2P2 “Champions”

  18. Power Industry Initiatives - Update • IPP – International Power Partnerships program • Work with DOE and State Dept. to identify GHG reduction opportunities overseas • Promote use of renewable energy and clean coal technologies • Other Efforts • Pilot-Scale Test Centers for Engineering, Economic and Environmental Evaluation of CO2 Capture and Containment • Coal Fleet for Tomorrow

  19. Cross-Sector Programs & Outreach • Clean Coal Technologies • IGCC – AEP, Cinergy, Southern, TECO, FirstEnergy • Clean Coal Technologies Conference • FutureGen • Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships • Companies teaming up with federal government • Evaluate technologies & infrastructure needs • Utility Hybrid Truck Initiative • Initiative for New Homes • Wise Use Website - help customers reduce energy use

  20. So … how’s the Electric Power Sector doing so far? • Goal: 3-5% reduction in GHG intensity, 2002-12 • First year: 2003 relative to 2002 (EIA data) • CO2 emissions increased ~1.25 percent • But generation grew only 0.6 percent • So, CO2 intensity increased (worsened) ~0.6 percent  • 2004 looks a little better? (prel. EIA) • CO2 emissions increased ~0.87 percent • Generation grew ~1.95 percent • Then CO2 intensity declined (improved) ~1.0 percent  • How does 2005 look? (very preliminary) • CO2 emissions increased ~2.8 percent • Generation to grew ~1.7 percent • Then CO2 intensity increased (worsened) ~1 percent or more 

  21. Business-as-Usual predicts some improvement EPICI target Data compiled by EOP Group.

  22. Recent & Upcoming Activities forElectric Power Companies • Increasing State and local pressures • Release of Revised §1605(b) Reporting Guidelines (now expected March 2006) • May have impact on voluntary efforts • Expand Power PartnersSM Resource Guide • Help companies identify actions to reduce emissions • On-line format for utilities and public use • Continue and expand GHG reduction efforts

  23. States are getting more involved in Climate GHG Reporting and Registries Powerplant Carbon Caps of Offsets Climate Action Plans Completed Greenhouse Gas Inventories Source: Pew Center for Global Climate Change, July 2005 update

  24. U.S. Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement • Initiated shortly after Kyoto Protocol took effect • Actions urged: • Cities should meet or exceed Kyoto targets • State & federal governments should meet or beat Kyoto targets by 2012 • Congress should enact cap & trade legislation • Effort has growth rapidly • 202 Mayors have signed (as of Feb. 2, 2006) • Representing over 41 million citizens • Press attention worldwide

  25. Rapid Growth in U.S. Mayor’s C.P.A. 16-Feb-2005: Kyoto Protocol takes effect 30-Mar-2005: 10 Mayors launch program 13-Jun-2005: U.S. Conf. of Mayors unanimously endorse 8-Dec-2005: Mayor Nickels (Seattle) highlighted at Montreal COP 2-Feb-2006: 202 Mayors signed, representing over 41 million citizens

  26. Background on Revising the §1605(b)GHG Reporting Guidelines • Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program • Established by Section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 • Oct. 1994: Final Guidelines issued • First reporting year was 1994, reported by DOE in July 1996 • Reporting rules were quite flexible • Scope of the reporting entity • Emissions and/or reductions • Entity-wide or project-specific • Power sector initially dominated, still majority

  27. Background on Revising the §1605(b)GHG Reporting Guidelines • Concerns grew with the original program • “Flexibility” reduced credibility • Weak basis for future crediting • Emergence of competing reporting standards • Administration plan to “substantially improve the emission reduction registry” • Part of Feb. 2002 GCCI • “create world-class standards for measuring and registering emission reductions” • “transferable credits to companies that can show real emission reductions” • take into account emerging domestic and int’l approaches

  28. Release of Revised §1605(b)GHG Reporting Guidelines • Status of §1605(b) revisions • Feb. 2002: GCCI to “Substantially Improve the Emission Reduction Registry” • November 26, 2003, DOE released proposed revised General Guidelines • Jan. 2004: DOE Public Workshop on General Guidelines • March 2005”: (1) revised Interim Final General Guidelines and (2) Draft Technical Guidelines proposed • April-May 2005: more DOE Public Workshops • Current status (as of Dec. 2005): • DOE had expected final guidelines by end of 2005 • Now aiming for “March 2006” • Then a round on revised reporting forms • Full implementation in 2007 for 2006 reporting

  29. Release of Revised §1605(b)GHG Reporting Guidelines • Will §1605(b) help or hinder its purposes? • Feb. 2002: “These improvements will enhance measurement accuracy, reliability and verifiability, working with and taking into account emerging domestic and international approaches.” • But is the WRI/WBCSD GHG Protocol becoming the new standard? • Will §1605(b) be a uniter or a divider?

  30. Enhance the Power PartnersSM Resource Guide • Old Climate Challenge program developed an “Options Workbook” of “best practices” • MOU commits to developing and maintaining a “Power PartnersSM Resource Guide” • At a minimum … • Meet Climate Vision commitment • Information for utilities, esp. smaller ones • Information for general public • … and maybe also … • Data collection for measuring intensity? • Aid in annual Power PartnersSM report to DOE? • Other purposes?

  31. Why Have a Website for the Resource Guide? • Limitations with “One Big Document” • Bulk discourages quick and easy use • Limited tie-ins with the Internet • Difficult and costly to update    … likely dead-end project • Possible advantages of being web-based • Easy to access and navigate • A “gateway” to broader Internet resources • Updating via collaboration • Ties into other Power PartnersSM activities • Quicker and less costly to maintain    … more likely to be a “living document”

  32. Scope of Resource Guide Website • Overall Power PartnersSM enabled • Expansion for additional content and uses for public and/or EPICI members only • PPRG is a Homepage link • Resource Guide is current focus of website • Nearly 50 topics • Text and references for each topic • Ample opportunities for users to add content

  33. http://uspowerpartners.org/

  34. Power Companies should continue and expand their GHG reduction efforts • Understand your GHG footprint and risks • Identify GHG reductions already under way • Assess options for further GHG reductions • Costs • Effectiveness • Ancillary impacts • Develop capabilities for GHG reporting • Join climate programs? • National? • State & local? • Set a GHG target? • Absolute level of emissions? • GHG emissions intensity?

  35. + = CRISIS = DANGER + OPPORTUNITY Closing Thought #1 Every challenge containsopportunity as well as danger.

  36. Closing Thought #2 In a future filled with uncertainty, there’s value in being proactive. Come gather ’round peopleWherever you roamAnd admit that the watersAround you have grownAnd accept it that soonYou’ll be drenched to the bone.If your time to youIs worth savin’Then you better start swimmin’Or you’ll sink like a stoneFor the times they are a-changin’. Bob Dylan, 1963

  37. Closing Thought #3 “If you’re not at the table,you’re on the menu.” -- Washington D.C. proverb

  38. Questions? Dan Klein Twenty-First Strategies, LLC 6595 Terri Knoll Ct. McLean, VA 22101 703-893-8333 dklein@21st-strategies.com

  39. Climate Change: Making Community-Based Decisions in a Carbon Constrained World American Public Power Association Pre-Rally Workshop February 28, 2006 Washington, D.C.

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