Climate Change and Agriculture in the South-West Coastal of Bangladesh

1. Climate Change and Agriculture in the South-West Coastal of Bangladesh Presented By- Malay Krishna Madhu Student Id:1009282004 & SK. Abu Jahid Student Id:1009282005

2. Introduction • Climate change (CC) is the most alarming issue facing the world today. • The consequences of climate variability and CC are potentially more significant for the poor in developing countries . • The impact of CC on agriculture will be huge and substantive. • Coastal people are highly exposed to a range of natural hazards, from storms and cyclones to widespread flooding and coastal erosion Table: Potential Change of Climatic Variability Source: Agrawala et al 2003:IPCC2001, 2007

3. Objectives of the Study • To know the present scenarios of the climate change (CC) impacts on agricultural sector in the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh. • To identify the potential impacts of climate change (CC) on agricultural sector in the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh

4. Methodology • Firstly relevant recent papers, Journals of the CC and • the report of IPCC are reviewed. • Then the driving forces of CC have been identified. • There after the damaging events • of CC and its associated impacts on agriculture have been recognized. • And finally, the potential • impacts of CC on agriculture • mainly crop production are predicted. Figure: The overall methodology of study

5. Results and Discussion Figure : Crop damage (MT) due to historical flood Floods • Flood affects agricultural production considerably. • Prolonged floods would tend to delay Aman plantation, resulting in significant loss of potential Aman production Source: Overview of Climate Change Impacts in Bangladesh: Consequences on Development, 2009 • The flood in1988 caused reduction of agricultural production by some 45 percent. • In 1998, Aman production potential of some 2 to 2.3 Mha could not be realized.

6. Results and Discussion (cont….) Cyclones-Storm Surges • In terms of CC, 1°C increase in sea surface temperatures could increase tropical cyclone intensity by 10 percent • Cyclones bring severe winds, storm surges, and flood that impact on lives, crops and property. • Cyclone SIDR, on 15 November 2007, struck the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh and total damage for the crops sub‐sector is estimated at about BDT 28.4 billion. The loss of production in all crops is 1.3 million metric tons, of which 63 percent (0.8 million metric tons) is aman rice. • Cyclone AILA, which struck the southern coast of Bangladesh on May 25, 2009 amount of damaged crops is estimated to be 340,660 acres.

7. Results and Discussion (cont….) Sea Level Rise-Salinity intrusion • Salinity intrusion would be a more acute problem in the South-West coastal region. • The South-West coastal region of Bangladesh would experience severe drainage congestion due to 62cm sea-level rise and embankments will be overtopped due to increased water level in the peripheral rivers. • The adverse effects of saline water intrusion will be significant on coastal agriculture and the availability of fresh water for public water supply will fall. • On an average year, increased salinity not only causes a net reduction of about 0.2 Mmt of rice production, but also diminishes potentials of Boro and wheat cultivation in saline affected soils of the coastal areas.

8. Results and Discussion (cont….) The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture • Higher discharge and low drainage capacity, in combination with increased backwater effects would increase frequency of such devastating floods under climate change scenarios. Prolonged floods would tend to delay Aman plantation, resulting in significant loss of potential Aman production. • On an average year, increased salinity not only causes a net reduction of about 0.2 Mmt of rice production, but also diminishes potentials of Boro and wheat cultivation in saline affected soils of the coastal areas. • Changes in climate may affect irrigation requirements for all the three cropping seasons: Rabi, Kharif-I, and Kharif-II. Increase in temperature will lead to escalating irrigation demands by 200 Mm3 for March only

9. Table: Rice and Wheat Production under Different Climate Change Scenarios The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (cont….) Table: Rice and Wheat Production under Different Climate Change Scenarios Source: Karim et al., 1998

10. The potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture (cont….) Table: The potential impact of Sea Level Rise and Flooding on Crop Yield Source:World Bank ,2006

11. Conclusion • Floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges and Sea level rise and Salinity intrusion are the continuing features of the South-West region of Bangladesh. • Crop production is more vulnerable sector in the coastal region. Developing countries like Bangladesh is not responsible for CC, but they are severely affected. • On the other hand, developed countries are main culprit for CC. If the situation is continued 17% of the total area of Bangladesh will be inundated. • For resolving the potential impact of CC as soon as possible the developed countries must be reached in a commitment, that they stop the responsible activities of CC. • To cope with the present situation of CC in agriculture sector of Bangladesh, research should be conducted for introducing of salinity and flood tolerant variety of rice. Otherwise, the food security will be hampered in the near future.

12. Recommendations • New agricultural practices, such as floating bed cultivation system • Carry out research on new varieties e.g. Saline and flood tolerant crops • Coastal dykes to protect flood damage • Conference of the Parties (COP-15) did not provide as our expectation, in the next conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP-16 have to raise our voice.

13. THANKS TO ALL