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Diffuse Priors for Fisheries Assessment Models: Insights from XDB-SRA Analyses

This study explores the implementation of diffuse priors for estimating key fishery reference points like Fmsy/M and Bmsy/B0, particularly within the context of the XDB-SRA model. We adopted a comprehensive approach using mean values and varying standard deviations for catch-based assessments of brown, China, and copper rockfish across different regions. The results offer insights into spawning biomass and exploitation rates relative to targets, providing a better understanding of fish population dynamics and predictive modeling outcomes.

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Diffuse Priors for Fisheries Assessment Models: Insights from XDB-SRA Analyses

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  1. Diffuse Priors for Base Models • DB-SRA priors for Fmsy/M and Bmsy/B0 are somewhat informative (catch-based method) • For XDB-SRA, adopted ‘diffuse’ Fmsy/M prior based on Zhou et al. (2011); mean=0.97, logSD=0.46 • Tripled SD of prior for Bmsy/B0 (0.5 to 1.5); mean=0.4

  2. XDB-SRA:Brown Rockfish

  3. Brown Rockfish Catch History

  4. Brown, XDB-SRA Spawning biomass quantiles, relative totarget & limit (left) and catch-based prior (right)

  5. Brown, XDB-SRA Exploitation rate and biomass,relative to targets/thresholds

  6. Brown, XDB-SRA Reference Points

  7. Brown, XDB-SRA Indices of Abundance,rescaled to biomass units with median q 1: Central CA onboard CPFV 2: Southern CA onboard CPFV 3: CA RecFIN

  8. Brown, XDB-SRA Posterior Predictive Distributions 1: Central CA onboard CPFV 2: Southern CA onboard CPFV 3: CA RecFIN

  9. Brown, XDB-SRA Posterior Predictive Biomass 1: Central CA onboard CPFV 2: Southern CA onboard CPFV 3: CA RecFIN

  10. Brown, XDB-SRA Brown Rockfish Posteriors vs. Priors

  11. Brown, XDB-SRA Posterior UpdateXDB-SRA w/ diffuse priors

  12. Brown, XDB-SRA Pairwise Posterior Scatterplots

  13. Brown, XDB-SRA Sensitivity Analysesmedian (5% - 95%)

  14. XDB-SRA:China Rockfish, Central

  15. China Rockfish Catch History

  16. China Central, XDB-SRA Spawning biomass quantiles, compared totarget & limit (left) and catch-based prior (right)

  17. China Central, XDB-SRA Exploitation rate and biomass,relative to targets/thresholds

  18. China Central, XDB-SRA Reference Points

  19. China Central, XDB-SRA Indices of Abundance,rescaled to biomass units with median q 1: Central CA RecFIN 2: Central CA onboard CPFV

  20. China Central, XDB-SRA Posterior Predictive Distributions 1: Central CA RecFIN 2: Central CA onboard CPFV

  21. China Central, XDB-SRA Posterior Predictive Biomass 1: Central CA RecFIN 2: Central CA onboard CPFV

  22. China Central, XDB-SRA China (Central) Posteriors vs. Priors

  23. China Central, XDB-SRA Posterior UpdateXDB-SRA w/ diffuse priors

  24. China Central, XDB-SRA Pairwise Posterior Scatterplots

  25. China Central, XDB-SRA Sensitivity Analysesmedian (5% - 95%)

  26. XDB-SRA:China Rockfish, North

  27. China Rockfish Catch History

  28. China North, XDB-SRA Spawning biomass quantiles, compared totarget & limit (left) and catch-based prior (right)

  29. China North, XDB-SRA Exploitation rate and biomass,relative to targets/thresholds

  30. China North, XDB-SRA Reference Points

  31. China North, XDB-SRA Indices of Abundance,rescaled to biomass units with median q 1: Northern CA and OR, RecFIN 2: Northern CA and OR, onboard CPFV

  32. China North, XDB-SRA Posterior Predictive Distributions 1: Northern CA and OR, RecFIN 2: Northern CA and OR, onboard CPFV

  33. China North, XDB-SRA Posterior Predictive Biomass 1: Northern CA and OR, RecFIN 2: Northern CA and OR, onboard CPFV

  34. China North, XDB-SRA China (North) Posteriors vs. Priors

  35. China North, XDB-SRA Posterior UpdateXDB-SRA w/ diffuse priors

  36. China North, XDB-SRA Pairwise Posterior Scatterplots

  37. China North, XDB-SRA Sensitivity Analysesmedian (5% - 95%)

  38. XDB-SRA:Copper Rockfish

  39. Copper Rockfish Catch History

  40. Copper, XDB-SRA Spawning biomass quantiles, compared totarget & limit (left) and catch-based prior (right)

  41. Copper, XDB-SRA Exploitation rate and biomass,relative to targets/thresholds

  42. Copper, XDB-SRA Reference Points

  43. Copper, XDB-SRA Indices of Abundance,rescaled to biomass units with median q 1: Central CA , onboard CPFV 2: Coastwide, RecFIN 3: Southern CA, onboard CPFV 4: No. CA / OR, onboard CPFV

  44. Copper, XDB-SRA Posterior Predictive Distributions 1: Central CA , onboard CPFV 2: Coastwide, RecFIN 3: Southern CA, onboard CPFV 4: No. CA / OR, onboard CPFV

  45. Copper, XDB-SRA Posterior Predictive Biomass 1: Central CA , onboard CPFV 2: Coastwide, RecFIN 3: Southern CA, onboard CPFV 4: No. CA / OR, onboard CPFV

  46. Copper, XDB-SRA Copper Posteriors vs. Priors

  47. Copper, XDB-SRA Posterior UpdateXDB-SRA w/ diffuse priors

  48. Copper, XDB-SRA Pairwise Posterior Scatterplots

  49. Copper, XDB-SRA Sensitivity Analysesmedian (5% - 95%)

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