The Future of Twin Cities Transportation Policy

1. The Future of Twin Cities Transportation Policy November 28, 2007

2. A number of factors are converging to exacerbate congestion in the metro area. • The Met Council predicts that the seven county metro area will continue to grow in the next 20 years • Add over 1 million people and 470 thousand households • Add nearly 500 thousand new jobs and generate 4 million additional daily trips • Automobile ownership has increased significantly since 1970 • From 1/3 of homes with two cars to nearly 2/3 with new cars since 1970 • On average, there is slightly more than one car for every licensed driver in MN • Road usage, as measured by vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is expected to grow 51% by 2030. • 93% of all daily trips are motorized • Nearly 80% of urban interstates are already congested • Over 2,530 lane miles are needed to eliminate severe congestion by 2030, almost all in the metro • Minnesotans continue to become more mobile, yet demand far outpaces supply of roads • Households living outside Minneapolis/St. Paul have increased from 54% to 73% since 1970 • Jobs outside Minneapolis/St. Paul have increased from 44% to 69% in same period • Lane miles of freeway construction have declined significantly in the past 35 years • Only 151 miles added in the 1990’s; only 29 miles from 2004 to 2006 • Minnesotans annually lose over 59 million hours in traffic at a cost of $1.1 billion including nearly 42 million excess gallons of fuel used due to congested roads • The average driver wastes 43 hours in traffic and 30 gallons of fuel per year • The Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) estimates that metro drivers add a buffer of 1.3 to 1.7 times the normal travel time due to congestion • Delays have increased by 37 hours in the past twenty years, fifth worst in the nation • During the last decade, an average of 600 people per year have been killed in Minnesota traffic accidents • The I35 bridge across the Mississippi River collapsed in August, 2007 killing 13 people

3. Minneapolis/St. Paul Minneapolis/St. Paul has become one of the most congested metropolitan areas in the country. Source: Texas Transportation Institute

4. Does congestion really matter? Not if we want to be like LA. Source – David T Hartgen, Professor of Transportation Studies, UNCC • Congestion weakens urban economies because it slows the motion that makes our cities vital • City economies are losing to the suburbs; In 1969, only 11% of America’s largest corporations were in the suburbs, now it’s over 50% • Unreliable delivery bottlenecks the supply chain and increases costs to consumers • Extra warehouses, vehicles, expeditors and other non value added items • Companies must pay higher salaries to attract talent willing to offset commuting time • Unreliable travel times cause drivers to build in ‘buffer’ time to our trips • Congestion costs lives – think EMS

5. Transportation funding in Minnesota is less than 1% of the general fund, meanwhile other funding sources are declining. Funding facts • Gas tax rate has not increased in over 20 years • MVST revenues are forecasted to decline • Federal funding is generally flat 2008 Minnesota General Fund Allocations Gas Tax Rankings (by state) MNDOT Construction Program

6. According to the Transportation Alliance, there is over $1.5 billion of unmet annual needs in Minnesota. However, it’s unclear what if any impact this funding will have on reducing congestion.

7. 2030: A tale of two cities? Likely, though not yet funded Needed

8. Our current transportation policy is not a vision, it’s a fight over funding gaps and taxes. • ‘Ask for as much as we can get’ • Minimal discussion of key metrics like congestion and safety • Funds are allocated based on politics of re-election • Earmarks fund low priority projects • Pressure at state level to fund projects in every district so large projects that reduce congestion often don’t get funded • Many competing interests all vying for their ‘piece of the worm’ • K-12 education • Higher education • Environment • Energy • Health care • Human services • Public safety Our issue isn’t funding, it’s priorities!

9. There is an absence of leadership on transportation. • Governor • Committed $1 billion in early days of administration to ‘fast track’ high priority projects • Has not articulated a longer term vision for transportation policy • Unclear what level of funding he is willing to support • Appears willing to consider gas taxes along with a bonding package • Does not support other tax increases as funding mechanisms • Legislature • Has not articulated a vision for transportation policy • Appear willing to fund at higher levels than the governor including sales tax increases • Unclear on the priority of transportation policy relative to other issues • Transportation advocates • Have not articulated a vision for transportation policy; trying to ‘get as much as we can get’ • Do of good job of providing information and statistics to decision makers • Do a good job of identifying the needs and raising awareness • Met Council • Created 2030 Regional Transportation Policy • Goal for congestion actually increases the level of congestion in the next 25 years • Goal for highway capacity increase is 20%, goal for transit ridership increase is 100% • Defined criteria and scenarios for funding • Supports public/private partnerhips (PPP’s)

10. We need a vision for transportation policy. • It should focus on improving our quality of life • Reduce congestion • Improve safety • Reflect our desire to be mobile and drive • Drive economic growth • It must be measurable • Congestion relief • Accident avoidance • It must be based on facts, not emotions • Life cycle analysis • Specific criteria for project selection • It should include a combination of funding mechanisms • Free market approaches such as public private partnerships (PPP’s) • Traditional sources such as bonding • ‘Radical’ ideas such as increasing allocation from the general fund We can start by learning from others.

11. Houston • Implemented congestion relief program in the early 80’s • Added 100 miles/year of highways from 1986 to 1992 • Reduced average delays for peak travelers 21% • Stopped spending in 1992 and congestion increased to pre-1985 levels • Business community created Trip2000 • Build more road capacity • Manage demand through tolls and access management • Increase overall transportation efficiency • Governor created Texas Metropolitan Mobility Plan • Created congestion targets • Quantified costs/benefits

12. Atlanta • Recognized that congestion was the biggest problem facing the city • Time to work increased by 24% to 31 minutes in the 90’s • Transit market share was falling • Port of Savannah projected to double volume in seven years • Created the Congestion Mitigation Task Force in 2004 • Made recommendations to the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) • Selection criteria based on cost/benefit ratio • Those that helped reach the congestion-mitigation goal the quickest • Projects judged on their merit, efficiency and effectiveness, rather than political benefits

13. Tampa • Constructed the Crosstown Expressway www.tampa-xway.com/home2 • Reversible lanes • Electronic tolling • Computer based safety controls • Useage is 33% higher than planned with 50% higher than planned tolls

14. The solution will require strong leadership and new ideas. • Need champions to articulate the vision • Governor Pawlenty • Legislators • Business leaders • Create a congestion reduction task force to lead the effort • Define goals for congestion and safety • Develop criteria for selecting projects • Determine funding needs and methods to achieve • Reconsider existing funding formulas • Determine accountability for results • Consider free market options • Public Private Partnerships (PPP’s) • Toll truckways • Bridge endowments • Twin Cities Express and/or BRT network • Life cycle analysis • Supplement with more traditional funding schemes • Reconsider general fund priorities – Increase percentage given to transportation funding • Increased gas tax – Minnesota has not kept pace with inflation • Increased bonding – Transportation is an investment "There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less than the long-range risks and costs of comfortable inaction." - John F Kennedy

15. 5.00 4.00 3.00 Cents per mile 2.00 1.00 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Average A word about the gas tax; it’s not a viable long term funding alternative. • Decline in real value of fuel taxes in 1997 dollars

16. Benefits of Public/Private Partnerships (PPP’s) • Lease, not sale of asset • Source of new capital • Typically raise more money than public agencies • Upfront fees and/or toll revenue sharing • Better management • Life cycle management • New infrastructure faster • Minimize risks to taxpayers

17. Information Sources • ‘The Road More Traveled’ – Ted Balaker and Sam Staley • ‘Safeguarding and Modernizing America’s Highway Infrastructure’ – Bob Poole, Reason Foundation www.reason.org/ • ‘Minnesota’s Transportation System: Our Future is Riding On It’ – Minnesota Transportation Alliance www.transportationalliance.com • Atlanta Regional Commission www.atlantaregional.com • Texas Transportation Institute tti.tamu.edu/ • Minnesota Department of Transportation www.dot.state.mn.us • American Road and Transportation Builders Association www.artba.org • The Metropolitan Council www.metrocouncil.org/