1. Contribution analysis Anita Morrison and Jackie Horne, Office of the Chief Researcher, Scottish Government

2. Contribution analysis, results chains, logic modelling….It’s all about outcomes • Clarify the language – activities, inputs, outputs and outcomes! • Examine how we can map interventions to outcomes (both singly and multiply) • Examine how we can assess progress and performance towards outcomes • Get working on some useful stuff!

4. Contribution analysis • Holy grail of attribution… “Builds a reasonably credible case about the difference the program is making.” (John Mayne) • Good contribution analysis is, in effect, theory-based evaluation • Use of logic models and results chains strengthens programme planning , design and review • Clearly sets out assumptions and external factors • Also strengthens approach to research / analytical planning

5. The Six Steps….. 1: Set out the attribution problem to be addressed 2: Develop a theory of change and ‘model’ or ‘map’ it (including external factors and underlying assumptions) 3: Assemble the contribution story 4: Assess the performance story 5: Seek out additional evidence 6: Revise and strengthen the contribution story

6. Understanding what we mean by outcomes Not straightforward….. Distinguishing between inputs, activities, outputs and outcomes…………

7. Understanding the relationship between policies and outcomes – single intervention

8. A simple results chain – example - exercise classes for over 65s and HLE Increase in healthy life expectancy Lower blood pressure, improved mobilityamong over 65s Increased levels of physical activity in over 65s Over 65s, especially those not doing enough exercise More accessible exercise classes and facilities for over 65s. Invest in exercise facilities and classes for over 65s Staff, equipment, leisure centres, etc.

9. Results chain-Twilight basketball funded through Cashback

10. Results chain-Twilight basketball funded through Cashback

12. A simple results chain

13. Multiple policies - logic models and contribution analysis • Move beyond results chains to consider inter-linkages between policies and outcomes • Consider strength (and weaknesses) of the contribution of different policies to outcomes • Assess and measure progress towards purpose targets and national outcomes • Inform cost-effectiveness and future resource allocation • Highlight strengths and weaknesses in evidence base

17. High level outcomes Intermediate outcomes Increased priceReduced incentives Increased sobriety & stability Short-term outcomes Compliance with laws Increased detection rate Alcohol industry Adults with alcohol problems Reach Licensed trade Drivers Taxation,displays, promotions, advertising Enforcement actions Outputs Random breath testing Addiction services Enforcement of planning controls & licensing laws Industry regulation Detox, Intensive support Activities Enforcement of drink driving laws SG, UK govts, EU Inputs Local authorities Vol orgs Police Alcohol – Partner Contributions to Outcomes Improved mental wellbeingReduced inequalities in healthy life expectancyReduced inequalities in alcohol-related deaths and hospital admissions BehaviourReduced alcohol consumption levelsLess drunkenness; less drink-driving EnvironmentsPhysical:Reduced exposure to alcohol-related hazardsEconomic: Reduced availability/affordability of alcohol Social: Drunkenness less attractive; sensible drinking thenorm Service uptake & engagement Understanding risks, attitudes to drinking Hazardous and harmful drinkers General public - targeted Preventive services Sensible drinking messages Media campaigns Brief advice Scottish Govt NHS

18. The actual and potential uses of this work? Is this the same for you? • Generating a shared understanding of an outcome; and what government interventions might be best to deliver it • Organisational capacity building in ‘outcomes working’ • Systematically assessing our performance /progress • Reporting to our Board on progress against outcomes • A basis for business planning and business improvement • Possibly contributing to outcomes budgeting processes

19. Producing a logic model…

20. Contact details Anita Morrison anita.morrison@scotland.gsi.gov.uk 0131 244 6530 Jackie Horne jackie.horne@scotland.gsi.gov.uk 0131 244 4816