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Crisis Action Planning (CAP) & The Commander’s Estimate REVIEW

Multinational Planning Augmentation Team TE-3. Crisis Action Planning (CAP) & The Commander’s Estimate REVIEW. Lt Col Dave Loftus, HQ USCINCPAC J382. WHY CRISIS ACTION PLANNING?. Crisis can occur anywhere, anytime Different than Deliberate Planning CAP responds to the unanticipated

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Crisis Action Planning (CAP) & The Commander’s Estimate REVIEW

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  1. Multinational Planning Augmentation Team TE-3 Crisis Action Planning (CAP) &The Commander’s EstimateREVIEW Lt Col Dave Loftus, HQ USCINCPAC J382

  2. WHY CRISIS ACTION PLANNING? • Crisis can occur anywhere, anytime • Different than Deliberate Planning • CAP responds to the unanticipated • CAP time constrained -- hours to months • Characteristics of Crises • Situation important in terms of • Diplomatic • Economic • Political • Military • AND the commitment of MILITARY FORCES and RESOURCES is considered

  3. Crisis Action Planning Process I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution Warning Order Planning Commander’s Estimate Execution MNF OPORD Form CTF HQ CAP Deployment Employment Transition Redeployment CAP crisis action planning COA course of action

  4. NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES Phase I: Situation Development I Situation Development Nature of Crisis Forces Available Deployment Timeline Major Constraints Actions being Taken Preliminary COAs II Crisis Assessment III COA Development COMMANDER’S ASSESSMENT IV COA Selection SUPPORTED STRATEGIC COMMANDER (CINC) V Execution Planning CRISIS VI Execution

  5. Phase II: Crisis Assessment I Situation Development NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES Considers: National Interests National Objectives Crisis Determination II Crisis Assessment III COA Development WARNING ORDER IV COA Selection SUPPORTED STRATEGIC COMMANDER (CINC) V Execution Planning VI Execution

  6. NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE ACTIVATION / WARNING ORDER Phase III: COA Development I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment WARNING ORDER III COA Development SUP STRAT CMDR (CINC) IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CTF

  7. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 1. MISSION I Situation Development 2. Situation and COAs II Crisis Assessment 6 paragraphmessage III COA Development 3. COA Analysis (War-gaming) IV COA Selection 4. COA Comparison V Execution Planning 5. Recommended COA VI Execution 6. Remarks

  8. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 1. MISSION I Situation Development ACTIONS ANALYZE THE MISSION RESTATE THE MISSION LIST ESSENTIAL TASKS GOAL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 2. Situation and COAs II Crisis Assessment III COA Development 3. COA Analysis (War-gaming) IV COA Selection 4. COA Comparison V Execution Planning 5. Recommended COA VI Execution 6. Remarks

  9. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 1. MISSION 3 SUBPARAGRAPHS I Situation Development • a. Considerations Affecting Possible COAs • - Characteristics of the Operations Area • - Factors that Affect the Crisis • - ASSUMPTIONS • b. Threat and Crisis Factors • - Most Probable • - Most Dangerous • c. Courses of Action • - WHAT Type of Action • - WHEN the Action Begins • - WHERE the Action Takes Place • - WHY (Commander’s Intent) • - HOW (Method of Force Employment) 2. Situation and COAs II Crisis Assessment III COA Development 3. COA Analysis (War-gaming) IV COA Selection 4. COA Comparison V Execution Planning 5. Recommended COA VI Execution 6. Remarks

  10. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 1. MISSION I Situation Development • Detailed Description of War-Gaming of COAs • Addresses each COA’s Friendly Actions and Consequences to Those Actions • Illustrates each COA’s Most Probable and Most Dangerous Factors Paragraph II Situation and COAs 2. Situation and COAs II Crisis Assessment Paragraph III COA Analysis (War-gaming) III COA Development 3. COA Analysis (War-gaming) Paragraph IV COA Comparison IV COA Selection 4. COA Comparison V Execution Planning Paragraph V Recommended COA 5. Recommended COA VI Execution Paragraph VI Remarks 6. Remarks

  11. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 1. MISSION I Situation Development • List Strengths and Weaknesses of Each COA • Highlight Differences in Strengths for each COA • Remember Commander’s Intent and Guidance 2. Situation and COAs II Crisis Assessment III COA Development 3. COA Analysis (War-gaming) IV COA Selection 4. COA Comparison V Execution Planning 5. Recommended COA Comparison Criteria VI Execution 6. Remarks

  12. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 1. MISSION I Situation Development CTF Commander’s Recommendation for Course of Action May Provide Commander’s Rationale for COA Recommendation 2. Situation and COAs II Crisis Assessment III COA Development 3. COA Analysis (War-gaming) IV COA Selection 4. COA Comparison V Execution Planning 5. Recommended COA VI Execution 6. Remarks

  13. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 1. MISSION I Situation Development • Requests for Additional Forces • Recommended Changes to the Rules of Engagement • Additional considerations regarding • Third Party Intervention • Impact of Possible Events • Impending Refugee Problem 2. Situation and COAs II Crisis Assessment III COA Development 3. COA Analysis (War-gaming) IV COA Selection 4. COA Comparison V Execution Planning 5. Recommended COA VI Execution 6. Remarks

  14. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE 1. MISSION I Situation Development • KEY POINTS • Developed during Phase III • Mission Statement clarifies and narrows mission to operational level • Focuses on recent events and accounts for situation development • SUMMARY • Submitted by the Task Force Commander in Response to the Warning Order • Reflects Task Force Commander’s Analysis of Possible Courses of Action • Recommends a Best Course of Action in Response to a Crisis Situation 2. Situation and COAs II Crisis Assessment III COA Development 3. COA Analysis (War-gaming) IV COA Selection 4. COA Comparison V Execution Planning 5. Recommended COA VI Execution 6. Remarks

  15. SUP STRAT CMDR (CINC) CTF Phase IV: COA Selection COAs Considered: Military Diplomatic Economic Informational NCA SELECTS COA I Situation Development NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES II Crisis Assessment III COA Development PLANNING ORDER Task Force Actions: Prepare Ops Plans Force Protection Refine Estimates Resolve Shortfalls IV COA Selection V Execution Planning PLANNING ORDER VI Execution

  16. NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES CTF Phase V: Execution Planning I Situation Development Task Force Focus: Forces Available Force Sustainment Strategic Mobility Timeline Shortfalls Refine OPORD Until EXORD II Crisis Assessment III COA Development ALERT ORDER IV COA Selection SUP STRAT CMDR (CINC) V Execution Planning ALERT ORDER VI Execution

  17. NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES CTF Phase VI: Execution I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment CRISIS Reporting EXECUTION ORDER III COA Development SUP STRAT CMDR (CINC) IV COA Selection Execute Ops Plans V Execution Planning EXECUTION ORDER Reporting VI Execution

  18. Develop, Analyze, Select and Implement a Military Course of Action Key Points of CAP • THE CRISIS: • Occurs without notice, develops rapidly • Threat to national or regional interests • Military response considered • WHY CAP? • No existing operation plan • No time for deliberate planning • CAP FEATURES • 6-phase process • Continual interaction between echelons of command

  19. Crisis Action Planning Summary Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV Phase V Phase VI Situation Development Crisis Assessment COA Development COA Selection Execution Planning Execution Execution Order Commander’sAssessment Commander’sEstimate Planning Order CRISIS Warning Order Alert Order • Strategic Command refines and presents COAs • NCA COA decision • Increased Information Gathering • Review of Options • NCA Crisis Decision • COAs developed • major forces • support • COAs evaluated • Monitor Situation • Gather Information • Take Appropriate Actions • Deployment plan completed • Operations Orderdeveloped • Force preparation • Execute OPORDs • Reporting • Transition / Redeploy • Termination / Resolution

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