Energy, wind farm performance and how to save Berrier Hill

1. Energy, wind farm performance and how to save Berrier Hill

2. Programme Introduction UK Energy – a brief history An objective look at wind farm performance Questions Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it Questions and Open Forum.

3. Programme Introduction UK Energy – a brief history An objective look at wind farm performance Questions Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it Questions and Open Forum.

4. Wharrels Hill, Cumbria

5. Wharrels Hill, Cumbria

6. Wharrels Hill, Cumbria

7. BLACK LAW, Forth, Scotland – Opened January 2006

8. Black Law wind farm – Scotland

9. Crystal Rigg w/f in winter

10. Programme Introduction UK Energy – a brief history An objective look at wind farm performance Questions Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it Questions and Open Forum.

11. Power generation in the UK 1964 2007 Central planning by CEGB No central planning Government funded Equity & debt funded Public sector monopoly Fragmented industry Prices & incomes policy Asset sweating industry Fuel self-sufficiency UK import-dependent Climate change not an issue Climate change central

12. 18 AVERAGE INSTALLED CAPACITY & NUMBER OF PLANTS IN THE UK DTI data, May 2006 11 36 73 152 CHP, imported electricity & other burned excluded

15. Where will the gas come from? Russia, Ukraine, Nigeria, Iran, Venezuela

16. ELECTRICITY 10% FROM RENEWABLES BY 2010 ----------------- RISING TO 20% BY 2020 GOVERNMENT TARGETS Created the Renewable Obligation Certificate system in 2002 (ROCs) to stimulate the renewables market This is a covert subsidy that more than triples the price a wind farm gets for each unit of electricity produced

17. Programme Introduction UK Energy – a brief history An objective look at wind farm performance Questions Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it Questions and Open Forum.

18. Frequency of wind speeds in the UK (Met Office data) 73% below 18mph

19. TYPICAL POWER CURVE OF A WIND TURBINE 85% above 18mph

20. WIND SPEED & POWER CURVE MIS-MATCH 73% below 18mph 85% above 18mph

21. LOWCA OLDSIDE SIDDICK GREAT ORTON LOAD FACTORS FOR 4 LOCAL WINDFARMS (2003-2005) – Ofgem data

22. Region 4 – Cumbria 2005 UK Capacity Factor = 28.4% Total UK installed capacity = 902 MW 2005 Cumbria Capacity Factor = 25.9% Total IC for Cumbria = 50 MW Best site Lowca Worst, Lambrigg Source: Oswald Consulting, 7/2006

23. 70% rise & fall in 25 hours 97% CHANGE

24. Summary of power changes in a 25GW wind carpet in the UK • 10 of the last 12 months of January experience a power fall exceeding 92% of installed wind capacity. This means only 2GW was being generated from 25GW of wind capacity in nearly all months of January Data from Oswald Consulting Ltd, August 2006

25. WHY WIND NEEDS BACK-UP = Trend in demand for electricity W W N W W N W N N C C C C C C G G G G G G 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2020

26. WIND vs NUCLEAR At nuclear LF of 85% and wind LF of 30% it would need 12,804 x 2.5MW turbines to generate the same amount of power as present nuclear fleet. ‘My Lords, the figures I have already given demonstrate that we would require between 10,000 and 15,000 wind turbines to fill the gap left by nuclear power generation’ – Lord Sainsbury of Turville, Lords Hansard, 18/11/2003 ref 231118-02)

27. Base load and demand BASE LOAD – MAINLY NUCLEAR Maximum ever UK demand was for 54,431 MW on December 10th 2002

28. Longannet, COAL 2304 MW @ 70% LF Peterhead, COAL 1,550 MW @ 70% LF Torness, NUCLEAR 1,250 MW @ 85% LF Hunterston B, NUCLEAR 1,190 MW @ 80% LF CONCLUSIONS • TO REPLACE THESE WOULD REQUIRE 15,499 x 2 MW WIND TURBINES AT A 30% LOAD FACTOR • ----------------------------- • 2. and THEY WOULD ONLY PROVIDE POWER WHEN THE WIND BLEW

29. GHGs 12.5% REDUCTION OF GHGs by 2010 (= 9.2 million tonnes of CO2) ------------------------------ GOAL TO REACH 20% 2010 GOVERNMENT TARGETS

30. Sources of Britain’s carbon dioxide emissions Total 560 million tonnes CO2 /year – DEFRA data 44 118 84 Only 20% due to electricity generation 213 (112) 101

31. Annual carbon dioxide emissions

32. The global perspective • Tony Blair said this year that if Australia stopped its CO2 emission ENTIRELY today the savings would be overtaken in 10 months by China’s growing emissions • China are opening a new coal fired power station every 5-8 days and intends to build 550 coal-fired power stations by 2010

33. How much CO2 is ‘saved’? • Wind industry use 0.86 tonnes per megawatt hour (MWh) • Ian Cawley MP for Humberside wrote to Mike O’Brien the Energy Minister on 16th Feb 2005 suggesting a fuel mix figure of not more than 0.43 t/MWh was correct • On March 15th O’Brien replied, “…..we agree that it would be appropriate to use an average electricity generation mix when calculating the current CO2 savings from a wind turbine……”

34. VANISHING CO2 SAVINGS Dirty coal 1995 BWEA TODAY OFGEM,DEFRA, CARBON TRUST & GOVT TODAY SDC 2020 GOVT 2010 SDC = Sustainable Development Commission

35. Advertising Standards Authority ruling dated 21/12/2005 Complaint from Denbrook Valley Action Group, Devon upheld against RES Energy ‘ The ASA consider that although the figure of 0.86t/MWh may have been a reasonable figure to use at the present time, it was not a reasonable figure to use for calculating the reduction of CO2 over a period as along as 25 years…’

36. SUMMARY of Part 1.1 • Demand continues to rise • Power stations are scheduled to close • An electricity ‘gap’ is looming • Government’s answer is all gas and wind • Electricity generated by wind is overstated • Carbon dioxide savings are greatly overstated • Windfarms are only build to reap the subsidies • They are driven by Government targets YET OUR COUNTRYSIDE IS BEING DESTROYED AS A POLITICAL GESTURE

37. Questions & discussion on Part 1

38. Programme Introduction UK Energy – a brief history An objective look at wind farm performance Questions Thoughts on the Berrier Hill proposal and how to fight it Questions and Open Forum.

39. The Berrier Hill proposal and the local context • Wind turbines – size & construction • Cumbria under seige Local plans • Landscape & visual impact • House values • Tourism & the local economy • Environmental issues • Any benefits?

40. How big are the Berrier turbines? - HUGE! Clipper Windpower 623 ft Berrier Hill 345+ feet Tip speed 150-180mph

42. Turbine base after pouring of concrete(note person top left)

43. Turbine sections on the road to Cefn Croes, Wales

44. Turbines 330 feet to blade tip

45. KIRKBY MOOR HARLOCK HILL FAR OLD PARK (off screen) Winds farms tend to breed like rabbits!

46. Challenge WCE’s claims • Berrier Hill will generate a lot of clean, green electricity • Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help climate change • Landscape and visual impacts will be mitigated • Will create jobs • Will help the community financially

47. Already shown that; • The amount claimed is almost certainly exaggerated (30% LF should be nearer 25%) • BUT more importantly it will be intermittent and unreliable • It will NOT serve local households

48. Typical developer claims • Will generate a lot of clean, green electricity • Will save huge amount of carbon dioxide to help climate change • Landscape and visual impacts will be mitigated • Will create jobs • Will help the community financially

49. The Berrier Hill claim ‘…….there will be emissions savings of 1,271,295 tonnes of carbon dioxide in the 25 year life time of the w/f….’ (Data from Eden District Council) HOW IS THIS FIGURE OBTAINED? 22.5 MW wind farm; 8760 hrs/year; 30% load factor SO 22.5 X 8760 X 30% = 59,130 MWh 59,130 X 0.86 tonnes/MWh = 50,852 tonnes/yr = 1,271,295 tonnes in 25 years BUT IS IT JUSTIFIED?

50. CO2 SAVINGS BY BERRIER HILL WIND FARM IS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERSTATED ‘Savings’ likely to be 3.1 times less than claimed