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Exceptional Events: A California Perspective

Exceptional Events: A California Perspective

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Exceptional Events: A California Perspective

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  1. Exceptional Events:A California Perspective Karen Magliano, Chief Air Quality Data Branch Planning and Technical Support Division

  2. Guiding Principles Allow planning efforts to focus on what is controllable Recognize recurrent nature of natural events Require level of documentation commensurate with the complexity of the event Consider what are “reasonable and appropriate” control measures in context of event 2

  3. Focus of Planning Efforts • Recognize a hierarchy of events: • Makes a difference between attainment and nonattainment • Affects design values and classifications 3

  4. Natural Events Not reasonably preventable or controllable Can recur Regardless of frequency, are not controllable 4

  5. Practical Approach to Documentation • Level of documentation should depend on complexity of event • Widespread, extreme events: • Less documentation to fulfill weight-of-evidence approach • Example: Large-scale wildfires or regional/high winds • More complex events: • More detailed documentation • Example: Distant, smaller fires or micro wind events 5

  6. Special Ozone Considerations More complex—not direct relationship like PM Wildfires typically occur during ozone season In some cases may exacerbate rather than “cause” an exceedance May require more qualitative analysis 6

  7. Assessing ‘Reasonable and Appropriate’ Control Measures Determine on an event specific basis Consider relative contribution of sources Consider potential emission reductions and cost-effectiveness of further control 7

  8. Types of Events in California Wildfires High Winds Fireworks 8

  9. Case Study2008 Northern California Wildfires • June to August, 2008 • Over 2,000 individual fires • 1.2 Million Acres Burned • NAAQS Exceedances • PM2.5 • PM10 • Ozone

  10. Smoke from wildfirescovers Northern California

  11. Sacramento/www.news10.net/062808 Yosemite/www.news10.net/072808 Wildfire News Coverage

  12. CBS Video Clip – 06/24/08

  13. AP photo/www.sfgate.com/062408 www.sfgate.com/062308 Photos – 2008 Wildfires

  14. 7/8 - 7/12 6/24 - 6/28 7/25 Wildfire PM Concentrations All PM2.5 BAM Sites in Northern California

  15. Wildfire PM Statistical Analysis

  16. Wildfire Ozone Concentrations 7/8 – 7/9 6/27

  17. Wildfire Ozone Comparison

  18. 6/27 7/8 7/9 Wildfire Ozone Statistical Analysis

  19. Case StudySan Joaquin Valley High Wind Event • May 21-22, 2008 • Wind Gusts up to 48 mph • NAAQS Exceedances • PM10

  20. High winds impact San Joaquin Valley

  21. Turlock – May 2008 High Wind News Coverage

  22. Photos - 2008 High Wind Event

  23. High Wind PM Concentrations

  24. Summary • Exceptional Events Rule is in place to identify events beyond planning process control • Events should not drive the planning process • Flexibility needed based on nature and complexity of events