Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey

1. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey By Greg Machos Presented For: Joe Picciano and the FEMA Region II Staff

2. WELCOME…. • To the entire staff of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Region II. Representing New York, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. • A special welcome to the following people • Joe Picciano, Acting Director for FEMA’s Region II • Jaye Sutton, FEMA Project Impact Liaison to Freeport, Long Island • Kathie Mabry, FEMA Project Impact Liaison in New Jersey Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

3. AGENDA • Introduction • Hurricane Problem in New York and New Jersey • South Florida Prior to Hurricane Andrew • National Hurricane Response Programs • National Weather Service’s StormReady • FEMA’s Project Impact • Project Impact • Freeport, Long Island • Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City, New Jersey • Plan for Sea Bright, New Jersey • Estimated Cost For Project In Sea Bright, New Jersey • Questions Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

4. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey Introduction

5. INTRODUCTION • Hurricane forecasters and researchers indicate that the Atlantic Basin is now entering a period of increased hurricane activity. • More intense hurricanes are expected to make landfall more frequently along the United States coastline over the next forty years. • The New York and New Jersey Metropolitan Area is long overdue for a landfall from a major hurricane. • It’s not a matter of if, but a matter of when because it will happen sooner or later. Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

6. AGENDA • Introduction • Hurricane Problem in New York and New Jersey • South Florida Prior to Hurricane Andrew • National Hurricane Response Programs • National Weather Service’s StormReady • FEMA’s Project Impact • Project Impact • Freeport, Long Island • Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City, New Jersey • Plan for Sea Bright, New Jersey • Estimated Cost For Project In Sea Bright, New Jersey • Questions Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

7. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey

8. THE PROBLEM • Last Major Hurricane To Hit The Region--September, 1938--The Long Island Express. • New Jersey was last directly hit by a major hurricane some 180 years ago. • Many residents in both New York and New Jersey including as many as 78.5 percent of all New York coastal residents do not think a major hurricane can happen here. However, they do occur. • When they do strike, if they happen to hit the right location along the coast. Much of Northeastern New Jersey and New York City could be under water due to the unique geographic feature called the New York Bight (Figure 1), where New York and New Jersey meet at a right angle. Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

9. THE PROBLEM Figure 1 NY Bight The New York Bight Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

10. THE PROBLEM Figure 2 Sea Bright, NJ Navesink River Shrewsbury River Map of Sea Bright, New Jersey Area Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

11. THE PROBLEM • Coastal regions such as Long Island have become highly urbanized since the last major hurricane in 1938 as you can will in Figure 3. • In addition, there has been a significant increase in the amount of insured property along the New York and New Jersey coastline as you will see in Figure 4. • All of these factors come together to make the New York City Metropolitan area the third most vulnerable city to a hurricane in the United States behind Miami and New Orleans. • A Category Four Hurricane striking Asbury Park could cause $50 billion dollars in damage. Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

12. THE PROBLEM Figure 3 Long Island Population Growth: 1938-2001 Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

13. THE PROBLEM Figure 4 Coastal County Insured Property in New York and New Jersey Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

14. AGENDA • Introduction • Hurricane Problem in New York and New Jersey • South Florida Prior to Hurricane Andrew • National Hurricane Response Programs • National Weather Service’s StormReady • FEMA’s Project Impact • Project Impact • Freeport, Long Island • Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City, New Jersey • Plan for Sea Bright, New Jersey • Estimated Cost For Project In Sea Bright, New Jersey • Questions Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

15. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey South Florida Before Hurricane Andrew

16. BEFORE ANDREW • Last Major Hurricane To Strike South Florida Before Andrew was Hurricane Betsy in 1965. • A generation of Florida residents hadn’t experienced a major hurricane prior to Andrew. Meanwhile, Florida’s population exploded as about 1,500 people per day migrated to the Sunshine State. • Due to the lack of hurricanes during the 1970s and 80s, a feeling of apathy toward the possibility of a major hurricane striking land there. • As a result of this apathetic attitude, homes were not built strictly according to the building code, which were, and still are the toughest in the country. • Other areas such as Coastal Alabama and South Carolina had similar problems prior to Hurricanes Frederic (1979) and Hugo (1989). • This led to the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history as Andrew caused some $27 billion dollars in damage in August, 1992. Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

17. AGENDA • Introduction • Hurricane Problem in New York and New Jersey • South Florida Prior to Hurricane Andrew • National Hurricane Response Programs • National Weather Service’s StormReady • FEMA’s Project Impact • Project Impact • Freeport, Long Island • Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City, New Jersey • Plan for Sea Bright, New Jersey • Estimated Cost For Project In Sea Bright, New Jersey • Questions Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

18. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey National Hurricane Response Programs

19. NATIONAL PROGRAMS • Both South Florida and South Carolina have responded to the devastation caused by Andrew and Hugo by improving their building codes, evacuation plans, and mitigation efforts. • FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has created a National Hazard Mitigation Program called Project Impact, which is currently being implemented in 48 cities across the United States. • The National Weather Service has also developed a plan to improve response time in communities to severe weather such as hurricanes called StormReady. Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

20. AGENDA • Introduction • Hurricane Problem in New York and New Jersey • South Florida Prior to Hurricane Andrew • National Hurricane Response Programs • National Weather Service’s StormReady • FEMA’s Project Impact • Project Impact • Freeport, Long Island • Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City, New Jersey • Plan for Sea Bright, New Jersey • Estimated Cost For Project In Sea Bright, New Jersey • Questions Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

21. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey FEMA’s Project Impact

22. PROJECT IMPACT • Project Impact has several programs implemented in the New York and New Jersey area. They include Freeport, Long Island, Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City over in New Jersey. • Freeport, Long Island has been probably the most visible and successful program to date. Prior to Project Impact, Freeport was a coastal town that was very vulnerable to coastal storms such as hurricanes. • As a matter of fact, according to HURREVAC, a government storm surge model, if a Category Three Hurricane moving rapidly up the coast hit Long Island, Freeport would be under water. (Figure 5) • Since joining Project Impact in 1998, Freeport has improved its hurricane awareness and preparedness through education, renovating roads and homes in flood prone areas, and developing an emergency management office. Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

23. PROJECT IMPACT Figure 5 Freeport, New York Storm Surge For Freeport, New York in a Category Four Hurricane Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

24. PROJECT IMPACT • Avalon and Ocean City in New Jersey are active participants in the FEMA Project Impact program. Atlantic City did consider taking part, but have recently decided not to. • Sixteen communities in New Jersey including Avalon and Ocean City, are among the top 200 cities and towns throughout the United States with multiple losses from coastal storms. • Since joining Project Impact in 1998, both Ocean City and Avalon have made tremendous strides in protecting their communities. They are both taking steps to lessen flood damage by elevating buildings in flood prone areas, improving evacuation routes, and educating the public about hurricanes as well as other coastal storms. • Avalon, NJ also participates in the NWS StormReady program Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

25. AGENDA • Introduction • Hurricane Problem in New York and New Jersey • South Florida Prior to Hurricane Andrew • National Hurricane Response Programs • National Weather Service’s StormReady • FEMA’s Project Impact • Project Impact • Freeport, Long Island • Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City, New Jersey • Plan for Sea Bright, New Jersey • Estimated Cost For Project In Sea Bright, New Jersey • Questions Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

26. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey Plan For Sea Bright, New Jersey

27. SEA BRIGHT PLAN • Increase Hurricane Awareness among officials, residents and businesses by issuing flyers, pamphlets, brochures, and presenting special features at the Hurricaneville web site at www.hurricaneville.com • In addition, have guest speakers and demonstrations in town halls, libraries and schools to give people an even clearer picture of what hurricanes can do. • Improve Hurricane Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation by enforcing stricter building codes, improving storm response time, and evacuation routes and procedures. • Have Sea Bright provide a listing of all emergency contacts with phone numbers and e-mail addresses so residents can have them handy when the next storm comes. • Encourage Sea Bright officials to obtain StormReady certification. • Renovate the Sea Bright Sea Wall, which has become costly to maintain. Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

28. AGENDA • Introduction • Hurricane Problem in New York and New Jersey • South Florida Prior to Hurricane Andrew • National Hurricane Response Programs • National Weather Service’s StormReady • FEMA’s Project Impact • Project Impact • Freeport, Long Island • Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City, New Jersey • Plan for Sea Bright, New Jersey • Estimated Cost For Project In Sea Bright, New Jersey • Questions Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

29. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey Estimated Cost For Project In Sea Bright, New Jersey

30. PROJECT COSTS • This will be a federally funded program by FEMA. • Costs given are estimates based upon other models such as Freeport, Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City as well as the cost of the damage to the Sea Bright Sea Wall in 1984. Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

31. AGENDA • Introduction • Hurricane Problem in New York and New Jersey • South Florida Prior to Hurricane Andrew • National Hurricane Response Programs • National Weather Service’s StormReady • FEMA’s Project Impact • Project Impact • Freeport, Long Island • Avalon, Ocean City, and Atlantic City, New Jersey • Plan for Sea Bright, New Jersey • Estimated Cost For Project In Sea Bright, New Jersey • Questions Hurricane Problem in NY & NJ

32. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey Questions

33. Presentation: The Hurricane Problem In New York and New Jersey We Hoped You Enjoyed This Presentation