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Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/

Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference Indianapolis, August 2007. Pork Outlook. Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/.

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Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/

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  1. Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference Indianapolis, August 2007 Pork Outlook Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia http://web.missouri.edu/~plainr/

  2. Production efficiencyHog cycleSeasonalityCost of productionInternational tradeSlaughter capacityDemand Long Run Factors

  3. Production Efficiency

  4. Pigs Per Litter, 1930-2006USDA Hogs & Pigs Reports

  5. Litters Per Sow Per Year, 1930-2006

  6. Average U.S. Hog Carcass Weight, 1930-2006

  7. Annual U.S. Pork Production Per Sow, 1930-2006

  8. Annual U.S. Pork Production Per Sow, 1930-2006 1930-80 growth rate: 2.027% 1980-06 growth rate 2.793%

  9. U.S. Live Hog Imports, 1930-2006

  10. U.S. Live Hog Exports, 1930-2006

  11. Net U.S. Live Hog Imports, 1930-2006

  12. Annual U.S. Pork Production Per Sow, 1930-2006

  13. Annual U.S. Pork Production Per Sow, 1930-2006 1930-80 growth rate: 2.027% 1980-06 growth rate 2.793%

  14. Average Annual Productivity Growth 1930-801980-06 Pigs/litter + 0.37% + 0.89% Litters/sow/year + 0.49% + 1.06% Pigs/sow/year + 0.87% + 1.96% Dom slght/pig weaned + 0.53% - 0.12% Dom slght/sow/year + 1.40% + 1.84% Slaughter weight + 0.62% + 0.62% Dom pork prod/sow/year + 2.02% + 2.47% Net hog trade impact + 0.01% + 0.32% Pork prod/sow/year + 2.03% + 2.79%

  15. Hog Cycle

  16. U.S. Commercial Hog SlaughterQuarterly Data, 1970-2007

  17. Terminal Market Barrow & Gilt PriceQuarterly Data 1970-2007

  18. Hog Price FlexibilityQuarterly Data 1970-2007 % ch T Mkt B&G price / % ch com hog slt In 8 of last 15 quarters, price & slaughter moved in the same direction

  19. Seasonality

  20. Daily Pork Production 1970s +30% 1980s +24% 1990s +20% 2000- 6 +18% Barrow & Gilt Prices 1970s -11% 1980s -13% 1990s -20% 2000- 6 -18% July to November Changes

  21. Cost of Production

  22. Cost of Slaughter Hog ProductionIowa State University Calculations, 1987-2007 Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

  23. Ethanol Capacity Growth Source: Renewable Fuel Association website http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics/#B

  24. Corn Milled for Ethanol Forecast % corn for ethanol: 2000-01: 6% 2005-06: 14% 2006-07: 20% 2007-08: 26%

  25. International Pork Trade

  26. 2006 was the 15th consecutive record year for U.S. exports

  27. Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1994-2006 35 consecutive months of profit, longest of record Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

  28. Source: USDA/NASS

  29. Source: USDA/ERS

  30. Source: USDA/ERS

  31. Source: USDA/ERS

  32. Source: USDA/ERS

  33. Pork Trade Overview The steady decrease in US pork imports and increase in pork exports has caused per capita US pork consumption to decline. Thus, hog producers were able to enjoy three consecutive years with record hog slaughter and profitable prices.

  34. U.S. Pork Imports & Exports, 2000-2007 14.3% of 2006 U.S. pork production was exported

  35. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-May 2007 Change from year ago Country 000 lbs Percent Japan + 48,697 + 11.5% Mexico - 79,081 - 29.1% Canada + 3,186 + 2.5% S. Korea + 4,049 + 3.1% Russia - 23,402 - 23.2% China & HK + 30,123 + 45.5% Taiwan - 13,651 - 41.2% TOTAL - 37,029 - 2.9%

  36. U.S. Pork Exports, 2000-2007

  37. U.S. Pork Exports, 2000-2007

  38. China Pork Trade China is reported to be buying 70,000 MT of U.S. pork to help ease a run up in domestic pork prices (up 67.7% in June) caused by a pork shortage due to high feed prices and blue ear disease. In perspective, 70,000 MT* equals: 94% of 2006 China/HK imports of U.S. pork 5.1% of 2006 U.S. pork exports 0.73% of 2006 U.S. pork production * carcass weight equivalent

  39. Fall Price Decline Aug-OctOct-DecAug-Dec 10 yr average -$6.82 - $4.63 -$11.45 10 yr minimum -$3.09 +$2.51 -$ 1.16 Futures -$2.62 - $1.35 -$ 3.97

  40. Live Hog Trade

  41. Pigs Born in Canada, 1996-07

  42. U.S. Pig Crop, 1996-07

  43. Growth in U.S.-Canadian Pig Crop1995-2005 (million head) During the past decade, 74% of the increase in U.S.-Canadian pig production took place in Canada. Source: USDA/FAS

  44. Exchange Rate: Can $ Per US $

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