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Sensemaking Capability Development

Sensemaking Capability Development. A FRAME FOR DEVELOPING SENSEMAKING CAPABILITIES & ACHIEVING THE COGNITIVE EDGE. Sensemaking Capbilities.

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Sensemaking Capability Development

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  1. Sensemaking Capability Development A FRAME FOR DEVELOPING SENSEMAKING CAPABILITIES&ACHIEVING THE COGNITIVE EDGE

  2. Sensemaking Capbilities People, processes and systems to exploit information - under conditions of complexity, uncertainty, and time pressure - for awareness, understanding, planning and to makefaster and better decisionsagainst an adaptive adversary

  3. Why Develop Sensemaking Capabilities? From “Sensemaking: A Cognitive Edge And A Sustainable Advantage For The SAF” • Systematically create awidespreadandpersistentCognitive Edgefor the SAF • CreateSustainableAdvantage • Not easily replicated • No COTS option • Leveraged on our HR advantage • UseCognitive Asymmetry as a strategy • Relative superiority in decision making

  4. Sensemaking - Faster and Better Decisions • Not just …….. • Better weak pattern recognition • More Hubbing • More Collaboration • More Decentralization • More Self-synchronization • More information online • Better and faster common operating picture • ………………. Etc. What’s the problem? Everything is relevant! All this and more!!

  5. Better and faster decisions? • The Quality of Decisions is a function of • Quality of collected information • Quality of knowledge base • Quality of Sensemaking • Time needed for Sensemaking • Adversary’s actions Information collected = f(No. & QofSensors) QoD = f (Ic, K , , ) Knowledge Base = f (Experience, Exposure)

  6. QoD = f (Ic, K , , ) Sensemaking capability development? Developments that : • Dramatically improve the quality of Sensemaking and/or • Reduce the time needed for Sensemaking

  7. QoD = f (Ic, K , , ) Sensemaking Breakdown? Important Correlation Tipping Point Information Overload Waddington’s Survey on Info Overload (96): Loss of job satisfaction Tension with colleagues Poor health due to stress  43% increase in snr management 63% admit personal relation-ships suffer Quality of Sensemaking QoS Ic Volume of Quality Information Collected IKC2 becomes ineffective if we do not Sensemake well!

  8. Developing Sensemaking Capabilities • Valid areas to define Problems and validate Solutions • Organization • Processes • C2 Systems and technology • Training • Personnel/team Selection • ……. Etc. Doctrine Demonstrators Experiments

  9. The Last Nanometer… Cognitive Domain Thinking and Concept Formation Attention Representation of Knowledge Memory Pattern Recognition Mind Activities Language Imagery Cognitive Psychology Consciousness Perception Attempt to explain Cognitive neuroscience Behaviours Attempt to explain Linguistics / Communication Theory/ Social Psychology Other Users relate Social Domain How C2 Systems, Organization, Processes could amplify Sensemaking?

  10. Data Outcome….. Sensemaking capability would translate into superior C2 systems Sensemaking Capabilities Understanding/ Knowledge Cognitive Edge Optioning/ Planning C2/ Action Command & Control Edge

  11. Achieving the Sensemaking Capability

  12. FRAMING SENSEMAKING DEVELOPMENT - Guide the development of a suite of Sensemaking capability Objectives • Aid the analysis of Sensemaking problems • Aid the synthesis of Sensemaking solutions

  13. THE SENSEMAKINGFRAME Divided into three parts:- Sensemaking Problem Space - Desired Outcomes- Concepts for experimentation and application

  14. SENSEMAKINGProblem Space

  15. Key Sensemaking Problems Organisation Environment Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Structured for Known/Knowable World Insensitivity to Weak Signals Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Problem Space Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Individual 1. Cognitive Limitation • Perception Threshold Limitation • Attention Limitation • Memory Limitation 2. Physical Limitation • Physiological States • Human emotion 3. Naturalistic Biases • Confirmation Bias • Halo, Primacy and Recency effects

  16. Key Sensemaking Problems Organisation Environment Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Structured for Known/Knowable World Insensitivity to Weak Signals Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Problem Space Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc 1. Skewed decision making in teams Team a. Groupthink b. Group Risk Taking 2. Team Process Losses • Communication losses • Team memory

  17. Key Sensemaking Problems Organisation Environment Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Structured for Known/Knowable World Insensitivity to Weak Signals Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Problem Space Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc 1. Structured for known/knowable world Organization 2. Insensitivity to weak signals 3. Compartmentalization of knowledge

  18. Key Sensemaking Problems Organisation Environment Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Structured for Known/Knowable World Insensitivity to Weak Signals Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Problem Space Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc ENVIRONMENT 1. Uncertainty • Operations on-the-fly • Lack of information 2. Adaptive Adversary • T3 • Military adversaries always asymmetric 3. Time pressure • Faster Tempo • Greater Mobility 4. Complexity • More players (NGO, other ministries, etc) • More systems

  19. 6 Desired Outcomes 15 Solution Spaces

  20. Desired Outcomes Concept Solutions Key Sensemaking Problems Organisation Environment Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Cognitive Precision “Getting it” Right! Connecting the right dots Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory

  21. Enhanced Reasoning Sharpen the Thinking Processes Popper Klein Snowden Level of Uncertainty Team Skewed Decision Making No Frame (or Hypothesis) available Team Losses Individual Chaos Biases Many Possible Frames Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Complex Few Frames Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory One Frame Cognitive Precision “Getting it” Right! Connecting the right dots Knowable Known Fog of War Time Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Uncertainty Reasoning, ABIDE Hypothesis Falsification, ABIDE, TeamSight RPDM

  22. Massive Sensemaker Automated Data Miner Massive Sensemaking Data finds data; relevance finds users Massive Databases Team Skewed Decision Making Team Losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Cognitive Precision “Getting it” Right! Connecting the right dots

  23. “Wisdom of the Crowd” James Surowiecki Wisdom of the Rest Extracting insights from large numbers Outliers can be interesting… weak signals Team Skewed Decision Making Team Losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc info Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Cognitive Precision “Getting it” Right! Connecting the right dots

  24. Key Sensemaking Problems Desired Outcomes Concept Solutions Organisation Environment Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Rapid Cognition “Getting It” Fast! Team process losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory

  25. How should we organize and present information to help the commander understand the situation fast? ‘One Glance’ upload Rapid understanding Individual Biases Rapid Cognition “Getting It” Fast! Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc • One Glance Cognitive Process: • Externalize Expectations • Show difference to expectations • Explain difference Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory

  26. Picasso’s cubism. One picture, many impressions. How do we communicate the largest content over the smallest communication bandwidth? Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Rapid Cognition “Getting It” Fast! ‘Short & Sharp’ Download Precise Communications Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory

  27. Key Sensemaking Problems Desired Outcomes Concept Solutions Organisation Environment Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Augmented Cognition Supplementing intrinsic Cognition Time Pressure Complexity Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory

  28. Persistent Sentinels Always reliable vigilant agents Configurable Software Sentinels Agent Keeps Watch 24 by 7 Augmented Cognition Supplementing intrinsic Cognition ! Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Mitigate poor human vigilance

  29. Schedule Info Management Configurable Software Assistants Mundane Computations Communications Augmented Cognition Supplementing intrinsic Cognition Virtual Assistants Digital Assistants Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Increase Cognitive Capacity

  30. Experts on Demand Social Networks On-the-Fly Augmented Cognition Supplementing intrinsic Cognition Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Tele-consultancy The Knowledge-Base (Experience) of the Organization • Create an network structure for expert knowledge sharing. • Promote social networks to be formed naturally on-the-fly. Expanding individual’s Knowledge-Base…

  31. Adjusts MMI to suite cognitive conditions feedback Neurophysiological(e.g. EEG)Sensors measure cognitive states Human-Machine Symbiosis Adapt to human cognition Augmented Cognition Supplementing intrinsic Cognition Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Optimizing Cognition

  32. Desired Outcomes Concept Solutions Organisation Environment Uncertainty “Blink”Malcom Gladwell Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Insensitivity to Weak Signals Reliable Instincts Harnessing Gut and Guts Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory “The Power of Intuition”Gary Klein

  33. RPDM training system Experience training with adaptive enemies Reliable Instincts Harnessing Gut and Guts Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Mid to High fidelity Simulations Expert Mentoring via electronic media • Hone Sensemaking Skills (Pattern Conditioning) • Adaptivity • Cognitive Precision • As One • …

  34. Key Sensemaking Problems Desired Outcomes Concept Solutions Organisation Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Environment Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary As One Becoming a “small” Large Unit Time Pressure Complexity

  35. Organisation See/ Operate as One “Common Reference” As One Becoming a “small” Large Unit Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory How to ensure a large organization works in sync? TeamSight – Everyone’s Mental Models are made explicit Common points of reference (no ambiguity), rather than common operating picture (single view). fires

  36. Organisation In Parallel Working together in Sync / ‘Creating Time’ As One Becoming a “small” Large Unit Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory

  37. Key Sensemaking Problems Desired Outcomes Concept Solutions Environment Organisation Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Adaptivity Reducing Sensemaking demand; enabling CAS

  38. Environment Adaptivity Reducing Sensemaking demand; enabling CAS Organisation Cognitive Agility Individuals and teams Switch frames with ease Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Complex Knowable Team Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Known Chaos Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory Pattern Management Expert problem solving “Act – Sense – Response” Drills & SOP

  39. Concept Solutions Environment Adaptivity Reducing Sensemaking demand; enabling CAS Organisation On-the-fly Dynamic processes and organisation Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Compartmentalised Knowledge Complex Knowable Team Skewed Decision Making C4 Team process losses C5 Individual C3 Biases Known Chaos Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc ? C7 C1 Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory ? ? ? ? C10 C6 C8 C9 C2

  40. Environment Adaptivity Reducing Sensemaking demand; enabling CAS Organisation Adaptive Systems System Automated to adapt Uncertainty Adaptive Adversary Time Pressure Complexity Comms Profile LCDN VHF HF Insensitivity to Weak Signals Structured for Known/Knowable World Adapts With… Compartmentalised Knowledge Current connectivity profile Team Information Content Skewed Decision Making Team process losses Individual Biases Physical and affective influence - Hunger, fatigue, fear, etc Cognitive Limitations - Perception, attention, memory

  41. Developing the SENSEMAKING Capabilities

  42. Augmenting Commander’s Cognition

  43. Causes of Action Slip Storage Problems (40%) Test failures (20%) Sub-Routine Failures (18%) Discrimination failures (11%) Programme assembly failures (5%) Stress Overloading Distractions Pressure Breakdown of Open - Loop Control(Reason, 1992) I brushed my teeth with shaving cream this morning A problem of Automaticity Action Slips Doing something we did not intend…

  44. C2IS – An AugCog Device Agents (Autonomous) Machine Components working in the backround Persistent Sentinels Knowledge-Based Tier Situation Representation Virtual Assistants Machine Readable Situation Picture Human Readable Situation Picture VA: Sensor Coordinating Assistant

  45. Thank You

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