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CBRFC April 2014 CUWCD Briefing/Meeting

CBRFC April 2014 CUWCD Briefing/Meeting. 1:30pm April 8, 2014 Ashley Nielson. Outline. March weather Precipitation Current snow conditions Water supply forecasts Upcoming weather Peaks Discussion. March 2014 Upper Air Pattern.

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CBRFC April 2014 CUWCD Briefing/Meeting

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  1. CBRFCApril 2014CUWCD Briefing/Meeting 1:30pm April 8, 2014 Ashley Nielson

  2. Outline • March weather • Precipitation • Current snow conditions • Water supply forecasts • Upcoming weather • Peaks • Discussion

  3. March 2014 Upper Air Pattern Frequent storms in zonal (east to west) upper air flow pattern Largest storm impacts: Bear River Upper Green River Yampa River Dry again in the south (Duchesne, Virgin River, San Juan, Lower Colorado)

  4. Winter Precipitation 77% 62% 120%

  5. Spring Precipitation Duchesne = 69%

  6. Past 7 day Observed Precipitation Observed % of Normal

  7. November 1 Model Soil Moisture 2013 Blue/Green = above average/wet conditions Red/Orange= below average/dry conditions

  8. Snow March 10, 2014 April 7, 2014

  9. Snow: Satellite Derived Snow Cover Grids

  10. Snow 107% of median 148% of median

  11. Snow 110% of median 119% of median

  12. Snow 77 % of median 83% of median

  13. April 1st Water Supply Forecasts 72 KAF 97% 91KAF 91% 86 KAF 80% 106 KAF 84% 193 KAF 60% 36KAF 51% 72 KAF 64%

  14. Forecast Trend Change in the forecast % of average between March 1st and April 1st

  15. Forecasts: Daily ESP w/ Forecast x 10% Official Forecast Daily ESP Forecast 50% 90% ESP will be a combination of forecast + observed to date Observed data

  16. Forecasts: Provo April 1 Forecast: 10% - 123 KAF 50% - 100 KAF (91% Average) 90% - 84 KAF

  17. Forecasts:Duchesne April 1 Forecast: 10% - 55 KAF 50% - 36 KAF (51% Average) 90% - 24 KAF

  18. Forecasts:Duchesne April 1 Forecast: 10% - 100 KAF 50% - 72 KAF (64% Average) 90% - 55 KAF

  19. Forecasts: Duchesne April 1 Forecast: 10% - 18 KAF 50% - 14 KAF (73% Average) 90% - 9.7KAF

  20. Forecasts:Duchesne April 1 Forecast: 10% - 89 KAF 50% - 72 KAF (97% Average) 90% - 58 KAF

  21. Upcoming Weather: Short term warm and dry. Increasing chance of precipitation mid April

  22. 5-Day Precipitation Forecast April 8 -13 www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  23. Long Term Precipitation Outlook Climate Prediction Center April-June 2014 April 2014 www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  24. Spring Temperature Outlook Climate Prediction Center April-June 2014 April 2014 www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  25. ENSO Update 60% • Tend to develop during the period Apr-June • Tend to reach their maximum strength during Dec-Feb • Typically persist for 9-12 months, though occasionally persisting for up to 2 years • Typically recur every 2 to 7 years Web Reference: iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

  26. Summary • Soil Moisture Impacts • Snow conditions more important at this point • Positive in high elevation basin such as Upper Stillwater, Lake Fork • Negative lower elevation basins (Strawberry, Starvation, Great Basin) • Snow • Snow near normal (Western Uintas) • Conditions deteriorate moving eastward • Early April storm improved conditions (entire storm not included in forecasts) • Forecasts • All forecasts below average • Forecasts better for high elevation basins • Weather: Warm and Dry for the near future • Better change of precip next week

  27. Where to Find Peak Flow Forecasts • Map: • http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/gmap/gmapbeta.php?interface=peak • Special Product (Unreg/Reg) • http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/outgoing/cuwcd_peaks/cuwcd_peakfcst_20140401.txt • List: • http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

  28. Peak Map Green = Low probability of reaching flood flow Red = High probability of reaching flood flow

  29. Peak List

  30. Special Peak Product

  31. Select to plot min and max year hydrographs Select to plot all historical peaks Max peak of record Forecast Probabilities 0 10% 25% 50% Flood Flow 75% 90% Bankfull Flow Minimum peak of record Current year observed daily streamflow to date Normal time of peak Forecast Issuance Date

  32. Peaks: Strawberry 10%: 650 cfs 50%: 400 cfs (44%) 90%: 250 cfs

  33. Peaks: Currant Creek 10%: 330 cfs 50%: 240cfs (79% of average) 90%: 150 cfs

  34. Peaks: Upper Stillwater 10%: 1400 cfs 50%: 1000 cfs (82% of average) 90%: 700 cfs

  35. Peaks: Big Brush 10%: 280 cfs 50%: 160 cfs (68% of average) 90%: 90 cfs

  36. Discussion • Forecast discussion • CUWCD Operations discussion • Next briefing date? • May 7th? Or 8th 1:30 pm

  37. Ashley Nielson CBRFC Hydrologist Phone: 801.524.5130 Email: ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Feedback, Questions, Concerns always welcome….

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