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PARADIGM SHIFTS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND TECHNOLOGY

PARADIGM SHIFTS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND TECHNOLOGY. Marcus O. Durham THEWAY Corp / U of Tulsa Robert A. Durham Central & Southwest Srvcs, WTU. PARADIGMS Introduction. A set of rules that define boundaries of a system Provide description of operation within boundaries

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PARADIGM SHIFTS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND TECHNOLOGY

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  1. PARADIGM SHIFTS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY AND TECHNOLOGY Marcus O. Durham THEWAY Corp / U of Tulsa Robert A. Durham Central & Southwest Srvcs, WTU

  2. PARADIGMSIntroduction • A set of rules that define boundaries of a system • Provide description of operation within boundaries • In 4 words or less A WAY OF THINKING

  3. HISTORYAdvances in Technology - Tools • Nomad IndependenceHunt-Herd-Gather, Basic Shelter • Agrarian Economy Farm, Store, Permanent Shelter • Industrial Revolution Systems, Controlled by Owner, Information, Desirable Shelter • Information Explosion Technology if willing to risk and learn, Choice of Shelter

  4. HISTORYBusiness Life Cycle • Technology Birth and Growth • Management Stability and Expansion by Acquisition • Legal Risk Avoidance and Demise

  5. TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE • Dream or Concept Beginning • Plan Focus • Growth Critical Mass • Maturity Bandwidth • Roll-off Stale • Satiation Stagnant • Demise Pull Plug

  6. $ MATURITY ROLL-OFF GROWTH PLAN SATIATION time CONCEPT DEMISE Last Century - Cycle > Generation Next Century - Cycle < 5 years Figure 1 - Technology Cycle

  7. EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE Resurrection - Entity • Effort to Recapture Dream • New Organization to Salvage Management • Reduce Costs of People • Employ Technology to Some Extent • Focus on Core Business

  8. EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE Resurrection - People • Concentrate on Investors • Flat Organizations • Support Services - Computer and Phone • Outsource

  9. EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE Network Managers of Outside Technology • Coordinate Suppliers, Marketers, Transporters • Independent Entities • Costs concentrated at Source • Technologists at Each Corner • Best in Information Society

  10. MARKETER TECHNOLOGY MANAGER SUPPLIER TRANSPORTER PRODUCT - MARKETER - CLIENT Figure 2 - Network for Technologists

  11. EXTENDING LIFE CYCLE Wealth - Last 2 Decades Old Thinking No Opportunity 90% Purchases Did Not Exist New Ways Use Old Things New Things Use Unvaluable Major Wealth Technology to Distribution Directing Information Moving Products Supplying Transportation

  12. THEORY OF TECHNOLOGY Zero - Sum Conservation of Energy Closed System Stable - No Growth Desirable for Control Limited Resources Gain at Expense of Others

  13. THEORY OF TECHNOLOGY Find More Continually Changing Source of Energy Open System Building = Growth Unregulated New Resources / Applications New Wealth / Value

  14. THEORY OF TECHNOLOGY Society Physical Resources Basis of Closed System Society Arch Type of Open System Technology The Outside Influence Value to Previous Worthless NOT ZERO SUM

  15. THEORY OF ECONOMICS Continuously Changing • Adam Smith 1776Wealth of NationsWhat’s Good for _____ is Good for Country • John Maynard Keynes 1930General Theory of Employment Interest & MoneySatisfied Customer Quits, so Progressively Tax • Paul Samuelson 1950 - 1990EconomicsUtilization of Scarce Resources

  16. THEORY OF ECONOMICS More Changes • John Kenneth Galbraith 1958Affluent SocietyNo Difference in Luxuries & Necessities • Paul Zane Pilzer 1990Unlimited WealthQuantity Becomes Quality

  17. THEORY OF ECONOMICSReality • Consumer Quits Buying, So Tax - US Policy or • Consumer Never Satisfied • 60 Years Shows Latter • US Tax Structure is Penalizing

  18. THEORY OF ECONOMICSAlchemists • Search for Gold • Laid Foundation for Investigative Sciences • Pharmacists, Chemists, Metallurgists, Engineers • Successful, but 500 Years Later

  19. THEORY OF ALCHEMYTechnology Determinant 1. Technology Defines Wealth and Determines Desirous Resources. 2. Advance of Technology Determined by Ability to Process Information. 3. Technology Gap Is the Predictor of Growth.

  20. THEORY OF ALCHEMYTechnology W = P * T n W = Wealth (dollars) P = Physical Resources T = Technology n = Power of Growth (Positive Feedback)

  21. THEORY OF ALCHEMYEngineer W = P * e +T t W = Wealth (dollars) P = Physical Resources T = Technology (Positive Feedback) t = Time

  22. TECHNOLOGY GROWTHHistory • Traditional Slow • Agrarian Physical Resource Control • Industrial Technology Control • Information Control Broken • Paradigm Shift Information to Anyone

  23. “NATURE OF FIRMS”Ron Coase T = I • Transaction Cost = Inefficiency • Transaction Cost Lower From Computers • Major firms - Inefficient - Reorganize endlessly • Small Business - Low Cost • Minimal Size Entity Wins

  24. Garbage Data Info Knowledge Application Tech + S S S Desire Budget History Figure 4 - Control System Model Limiters

  25. THEORY OF INFORMATIONTechnology Proportional To Sum: Acceleration of Information Speed of Application Changes from History T = d2 /d t2 (Info) + d/d t(Application) + d (history)

  26. THEORY OF INFORMATIONFeedback • Negative - Control & Stability • Positive - Growth & Expansion • Filters Affect Outcome • Width - Chops Noise, Time Response • Height - Attenuation, Gain • Rate of Change - Velocity or summation

  27. TECHNOLOGY GROWTHLimiters • Application Not Implemented • Incorrect History Interpretation • Regulate To Protect

  28. LIMITS ON TECHNOLOGYCost = Perceived Value PV = FV - d(MC + BC + DC) * N PV Perceived Value FV Functional Value MC Manufacturing Cost BC Business Cost DC Distribution Cost N Number of Units

  29. TECHNOLOGY GAPFeedback Loop TC = PV + TG If FV > then PV > then TG < TC Technology Cost FV Quality, education, reliability PV Perceived Value TG Technology Gap

  30. SHIFT OF COSTSWhere? • Manufacturing Insignificant Today • Distribution is the Major Cost • Technology for Distribution • Retailer - Minimize Handlers, Computer Links, Control • Package Express - New Airline, Central Sorting, Send Back • Direct Market - Computer / Satellite, Express, JIT Customer • Major Wealth in Last 20 Years ? Technological Distribution

  31. PEOPLE PLACEMENT Cope Vs Options • Unskilled Labor Growing Gap Motivation & Moral Responsible • Skilled “Blue Collar” New Job New Enterprise • Manager No Need Conventional Transition to Technology Mgr • Technologists Outsource Opportunity Vs Stable

  32. PEOPLE PLACEMENTCyberspace • Not About Computers • Release of Information to More People • Technology not Domain of Managers Internet Connections

  33. PEOPLE PLACEMENTSociety Good • Technology Replace Person • More Money to Owner • More to Spend on Non-Necessities • New Enterprises from New Lifestyle

  34. FUTURE FOR EDUCATIONAnalysis of Technology • Reams of Data • Little Knowledge • Can’t Review & Validate • Can’t Ascertain Problems • Technical Expert vs. Artificial Expert • Need Basic Principles Emphasis 2 * 2 = ?

  35. FUTURE FOR EDUCATIONRefocus Old New Technical Theory Skills Change Fast Deal With Things Deal With People Info Age - ‘Vacuum’ Haven Need People Skills Continuing Education Seminar Short Courses Professional Society

  36. FUTURE OF ORGANIZATIONSIndependent Interdependence • Technology Change & Creativity • Manufacturing Efficient Joint Ventures • Marketing Entrepreneurs, Niche Clientele • Distribution Technology Manager Products / Info • Support Network Education and Encouragement • Major Companies ?

  37. FUTURE FOR TECHNOLOGISTSWay to Go • 20 Years AgoConcept to market, 5 years • TodayLife Cycle of Technology < 5 Years • Need Less Advanced Skills, More Application • Multiple Separate Businesses • One Flourishes, Others Incubate • Develop Where You Want With Information System

  38. FUTURE FOR TECHNOLOGISTSNew Criteria • Network Others Must Know • Exchange Skills Niche • Marketer Unconventional • People Skills Mandatory • Change Uncomfortable, but Future is Bright

  39. FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGISTSInformation Revolution • Major Corporation Deterioration of Empire • Life Time Employment w/ Co. HA • Life Time Doing Same Thing HA HA • THAT’S GOOD NEWS Opportunitie$

  40. “Business Reality: We are not a family - this is business. The Company and the Employees have formed a partnership which should be mutually beneficial. Either party can terminate this partnership at any time if it ceases to be beneficial - no hard feelings. This is a job - it should be challenging and rewarding - but it is still just a job. Loyalty and high morale may no longer be part of the relationship. Long term security is no longer a reality.”

  41. SUMMARYParadigm Shift • Tech Growth = Info Acceleration + Application Speed • Tech Limit = Perceived Costs • Tech Gap = Advances - Application • Opportunity = Tech Gap + Spin-Offs

  42. Marketer Technology Manager Supplier Transporter SUMMARYOrganization • Inertia Makes Unresponsive Traditional • Pare to Flat • Independent Manufacturers, Marketing, Transporters

  43. SUMMARYTechnologists • Success = Change • Communications & People Skills • Basic Education on Fundamentals • Continuing Education

  44. SUMMARYMatter of Control Stability of Negative Feedback OR Explosive Growth of Positive Feedback

  45. MATURITY OPPORTUNITY GROWTH RECOGNITION PLAN time CONCEPT $ Questions?

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