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Urban M odelling and Decision Support

Urban M odelling and Decision Support. AH2307 Anders Karlström Head of Department Transport Science KTH Royal Institute of Technology. From Transport Data Analysis and Collection:. Planning and Policy Operations Monitoring Management and Control. THIS COURSE!.

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Urban M odelling and Decision Support

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  1. Urban Modellingand Decision Support AH2307 Anders Karlström Head of Department Transport Science KTH Royal Institute of Technology

  2. From Transport Data Analysis and Collection: • Planningand Policy • Operations • Monitoring • Management and Control THIS COURSE! Quantitativemethods ComputationalMethods Modelling Computer aideddecision support

  3. Content “The main contents are • discrete choice theory, the multinomial and nested logitmodel, • network equilibrium and assignment theory for car and public transport, • and the development and application of a simple forecast and analysis system”

  4. What is this about? Quantitativemethods or Computationalmethods…. … for Modelling Urban System … in particularin relation to Interaction between Location of activities and land use and the Transport System MODELS

  5. Learningoutcomes After the course you should be able to: • Describe and critique the application of rational models in decision-making processes • Apply urban theories to building a simple forecasting system • Analyze policy changes in the urban system and produce decision support for decision-makers • Write a report of a simple transport planning study

  6. Examination Examination • PRO1 - Project, 4.5 credits, gradescale: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F • TEN1 - Examination, 3.0 credits, gradescale: A, B, C, D, E, FX, F

  7. Learningoutcomes vs examination

  8. Project • You willuse a simple traveldemandmodel • Stylized city of Stockholm • Evaluate Policy Measures • Examine interaction of land-use and transport • Write a report • Oral examination

  9. Written examination Four examcategories • Demandmodelling with Logit • Assignment • LUTI • Models and appraisal

  10. ContentDemand • Demandmodelling with Logit • Where to peoplelocate? • Howoftendotheytravel? • Wheredotheytravel? • By which mode dotheytravel? Transport, housing, workplaces

  11. ContentDemand • Demand (contd) Logitmodel (repetition) Nestedlogitmodel Trip generation, Trip distribution and modal split Locationalchoicemodelling (carownership)

  12. ContentAssignment 2. Assignment Iftravel, either by car, bike, walk or transit Road network Transit assignment Car assignment, networkloading Staticnetworkequilibrium

  13. Content3. LUTI

  14. Content LUTI 3. Land use and transport interaction (LUTI) Interaction of LU and T Location of economicactivities … and freight

  15. ContentModelling and Appraisal 4. Modelling and Appraisal OthermodelsthanLogit Car ownershipmodelling Schedulingmodels Appraisal: What is it? What is it, really? Critique and defense

  16. How to pass the course Last year debriefing: Therewere 21 students last year 20 took the exam Onlyonereceived F on the first exam 20 passed the course

  17. How to pass the course (1) 1. Project • Get an overview • Read the projectdocumentationimmediately • Follow the lab on Wednesday • Start early • Ask Daniel and Masoud • Uselabhours to Q/A • Understand the requirements of the written report • Understand the requirements of the oral exam • Keeep the deadline

  18. Oral exam? • Project (contd) The mainpurpose is to ensureindividual examination of each student Make sure that you know your wayaround the code No presentation is required. Therewill be time slotsavailableon the web to book

  19. How to pass the course (2) 2. Written Examination • Get an overview • Read the FAQ: On how to pass the exam • Look at the Example Problem Sets and ExampleExams • Understand the fourcategories of the Exam • Locatelearningactivitiesassociated with eachcategory • Make sure that you are able to tick offeachcategory in the exam

  20. Grading The final grade will then be set according to the grades on the Project and Examination: First, the grade on the Project is defined to be the anchor • If you receive a grade on the Examination that is higher than the Project, your final grade will be one step higher than the Project. • If your Examination grade is the same as the Project, you will have the grade of your Project. • If your Examination grade is lower than the grade on the Project, your final grade will be one step lower than the Project grade. • There is one exception to this rule: For final grade A you will have  to have grade A on both the Project and the Examination. (AND, of course, you will have to pass (A-E) both the Project and the written Exam.)

  21. Important! • If you haveanyquestions, pleasesendthem to meor Daniel/Masoud(Project) - emailamail@kth.se danjo@kth.se masoud.fadaei@abe.kth.se • Answers for a general audiencewill be on Social • Questions of PROJECT should be addressed to Daniel/Masoud

  22. Course committee • Free lunch! • Yes, and it is a nice lunch too.

  23. END OF FORMALIA

  24. Background for modelling • Approaches to planning • Whymodels? • Limitations of models, critique and defense

  25. Approaches to decision-making • Rationalanalysis or muddling-through? • Vision • Plan • Consensus

  26. Policy instruments

  27. Weneedmorethan the solution

  28. Integrated approach

  29. Whatdoweneed to know?

  30. Land-use and transport

  31. A sustainability paradox • Land-usepolicieswillhaveonly a minor effect as a measure for increasedsustainability • It is the land-usepattern that is the dominatingsignificantfactor with a hugeimpact of sustainability

  32. Identifying the problem

  33. Identifying the problem (2)

  34. Problem or Solution?

  35. It is difficult to predict, in particular the future Does it work??

  36. Model and reality? Urban model

  37. Models Whyusecomputationalmodels (or mathematicalmodels)? • Rigour • Comprehensiveness • Logic • Accessibility • Flexibility

  38. A goodmodel… should be • theoretically sound • based on good data • reproducing observations and other data reasonablywell • providing the required output • easy to use • accepted by the user • welldocumented ?! Whataboutunderstanding?

  39. Validation • Practicalvalidation • Theoreticalvalidation • Internalvalidation • Externalvalidation

  40. Dynamics • Time marchingvs forward-looking • Equilibrium vs disequilibrium and simulation

  41. Types of models • OW ch 1, PMG ch 1-2

  42. A structure

  43. Policy evaluation?

  44. A rather different question • What policy measuresshouldweuse to achieve a certainobjective? • (What is backcasting?)

  45. Limitations

  46. Critique • People are complex and heterogeneous • People cannot be represented by a mathematicalformula • People are not rational • People are not utilitymaximizers • Social contracts and social norms are crucial, whichis badly or not at all represented • Where is politicaldecision-making? • People willchangeattitudestowardsbig fossile cars, which is not reflected in your models • People behaveaccording to habits, and weneed to break them • You are not considering the environment, onlyeconomics • You cannotaddressissues of sustainability • A modelcannotbuild high speed rail, whichweneed

  47. Defense? • People are complex and heterogeneous • People cannot be represented by a mathematicalformula • People are not rational • People are not utilitymaximizers • Social contracts and social norms are crucial, whichis badly or not at all represented • Where is politicaldecision-making? • People willchangeattitudestowardsbig fossile cars, which is not reflected in your models • People behaveaccording to habits, and weneed to break them • You are not considering the environment, onlyeconomics • You cannotaddressissues of sustainability • A modelcannotbuild high speed rail, whichweneed

  48. Red bus / Blue bus

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