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Energy and Emission Scenario up to 2050 for China

Energy and Emission Scenario up to 2050 for China. Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute IEW 2009, Venice. Scenario Framework. Good effects on Climate Change. High GDP Enhanced Low Carbon Scenario. Low GDP Low Carbon Scenario. High GDP low carbon scenario. Bad effects on energy security.

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Energy and Emission Scenario up to 2050 for China

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  1. Energy and Emission Scenario up to 2050 for China Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute IEW 2009, Venice

  2. Scenario Framework Good effects on Climate Change High GDP Enhanced Low Carbon Scenario Low GDP Low Carbon Scenario High GDP low carbon scenario Bad effects on energy security Good effects on energy security BaU Scenario Bad effects on Climate Change

  3. Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC) Environment industry Pollutant emission Medium/long-term analysis Energy demand and supply Price/investment Economic impact Medium/long-term analysis IPAC-SGM IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL Energy demand and supply Full range emission Price, resource, technology Medium-long term analysis Economic impact Energy demand and supply Price/investment Medium/long-term analysis IPAC-TIMER IPAC-Emission IPAC/Tech(Power/Transport) IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm Short term forecast/ energy early warning Technology development Environment impact Technology policy Medium/short term analysis Technology assessment Detailed technology flow IPAC/AIM-Local IPAC-AIM/tech IPAC/Gains-Asia Region analysis Medium/short analysis Energy demand and supply Technology policy AIM-air IPAC-health Climate Model ERI, China ERI, China

  4. Methodology framework Global Model IPAC-Emission Global energy demand and supply Global GHG Emission Global Target Burden sharing Energy import/export Energy Price Reduction cost China energy and emission scenarios Energy demand by sectors Energy supply Reduction cost Future economic sector detail Energy intensive industry Reduction cost Energy technology model IPAC-AIM/technology Energy economic model IPAC-CGE

  5. GDP by industry sectors: What is the meaning of Low Carbon Economy

  6. Investment by industrial sectors

  7. 主要高耗能行业发展 Products output in major sectors, BaU

  8. Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC

  9. Population

  10. Steel production process in China Coke making Sintering DIOS or Direct Iron making Pig Iron COREX Reduction Steel making Recycled steel Electric Furnace Convertor Open Hearth Casting Continuous Casting Heating Hot Rolling Steel Heating Cool Rolling Steel

  11. 太阳能利用 2050年的低碳住宅 舒适和节能 生态生活教育 光伏电池 减少10-20% 能源需求 屋顶植被 (25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池， 转换效率接近30% 高效照明 【如 LED照明】 太阳热利用 普及率: 20-60% （目前6%） 减少50%照明需求， 普及率 100% 能源检测系统 （家用电器) 高效绝热 减少 60% 采暖需求, 普及率70% 超高效空调 燃料电池 COP =8, 普及率 100% 热泵采暖 普及率 0-20% COP＝5 普及率 30-70% 待机电源耗电 向公众提供经济和环境 信息促使大家成为 低碳消费 高效家用电器 减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式 降低1/3 ， 普及率100% 5

  12. Top Runner in Japan: Improvement of Energy Efficiency - “Top Runner Program reached -Incentive for competition and innovation -Promotion existing high efficiency technology difussion -Enhancing economy competitivness -Making win-win. Example: Refrigerator (Source) JEMA (2002)

  13. Parameter of Urban Household

  14. Distribution of Cities in China Population, million

  15. Car Ownership Cars/1000person 600 US Canada Left side sgifting 500 Italy Sweden France Beijing2020 400 UK Spain 300 台湾 Beijing2007 Greece 200 Hangzhou2007 China 2030 PPP China 2030 Exchange Rate Dongying2005 100 Shanghai 2007 Singapour Hongkong Korea India 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 GDP per Capita (1997 $ PPP) Source: RIIA, 1997 Chatham House Forum

  16. Vehicle fleet, BaU, 10000

  17. Vehicle fleet, Low Carbon scenario, 10000

  18. Transport, Low carbon scenario

  19. Comparison of BaU and Low Carbon Scenario

  20. Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario

  21. IPCC Range

  22. Primary energy demand, BaU

  23. Primary energy demand, Low carbon scenario, Mtce

  24. Primary energy demand, Enhanced Low carbon scenario, Mtce

  25. Investment Demand of Energy Industry 10000 8000 6000 Base scenario A hundred million Policy scenario 4000 2000 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Year

  26. National Energy Expenses 200000 150000 Base scenario A hundred million 100000 Policy scenario 50000 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Year 30

  27. 33

  28. How to realize low carbon future • Technology roadmap • Policy roadmap • Political roadmap

  29. Technology Roadmap

  30. Technology Roadmap

  31. Technology Roadmap

  32. CO2 emission from energy activities in Guang Dong Province, mt-C BaU Policy Low Carbon Mtce Year

  33. Jilin Province

  34. Jilin City

  35. Other relative studies: 2008-2010 • Energy and GHG Emission scenario up to 2030: Energy Bureau • 2050 Low carbon Society Emission Scenarios: MOE(Japan), Defra(UK) • New IPCC Scenarios • CCICED low carbon scenarios • Chinese Academy of Engineering: 2050 Energy Strategy, energy ceiling. • Post-Kyoto Options for China • Sector based approach analysis: case study for power generation in China • Low Carbon Scenario in Province and Cities: Guangdong, Hongkong, Jilin, Jilin City, Baoding, Shanghai, Beijing, Shijiazhuang • AEEMF: Asian Scenarios • Embedded Carbon: international trade, final products

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