So Now What Do We Do? Planning for Climate Change

1. So Now What Do We Do?Planning for Climate Change Lara Whitely Binder Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington May 30, 2007 Canadian Columbia River Forum Climate science in the public interest

2. Responding to Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation Adaptation activities Focus on developing the capacity to manage the change that occurs as mitigation strategies are debated and enacted. Focus of the CIG. Mitigation activities Focus on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases

3. What Is Adaptive Planning? “Adaptation is not one activity or decision, but rather a continuous set of activities, actions, decisions, and attitudes undertaken by individuals, groups, and governments.” -- Adger et al. 2005 …with the objective of Increasing community and ecosystem resilience to climate change impacts

4. Why Adaptive Planning? • Significant climate change impacts are projected, and the impacts expected within the next few decades are largely unavoidable. • Decisions with long-term impacts are being made every day. Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s vulnerabilities. • Significant time is required to motivate and develop adaptive capacity, and to implement changes • Increasing evidence that it will cost more to retrofit for climate resilience than to build it in in the first place.

5. The “Hows” of Adaptive Planning • How do you build and maintain support for adaptive planning? • How sensitive are you to climate change? (remember changes in other stresses, e.g. population growth) • How adaptable are your natural and managed systems? • How vulnerable are you? (the “sum” of your sensitivity and adaptability) • How can you change policies, etc. to reduce this vulnerability?

6. Qualities That Limit Adaptive Capacity • The resource is already stressed in ways that limit adaptation to future climate change; • Other non-climate trends are likely to increase stress on the resource; • The resource’s ability to adapt is physically limited; • Management of the resource is highly fragmented; and/or • The policies, etc. affecting a resource are inflexible to projected changes (see “red flags”).

7. Policy “Red Flags” Characteristics of policies governing climate-sensitive resources that can limit adaptability: • Policies that do not allow regular re-evaluation and adjustment in accordance with changing conditions • Policies that require planning based strictly on the past, or pin certain decisions/triggers to certain periods or seasonal patterns • Policies reinforcing trends that increase vulnerability or reduce adaptability (e.g., development along flood plains)

8. General Goals in Planning for Climate Change • Improve community awareness of and preparedness for global warming impacts. • Build in recognition of a changing climate. • Reverse trends that increase vulnerability to climate. • Increase the robustness of long term climate-sensitive decisions and investments. • Increase the flexibility of vulnerable managed systems. • Enhance the adaptability of vulnerable natural systems.

9. General Options for Planning

10. Possible Options for Adapting M&I Water Demands • Adjust reservoir operations for a changing climate. • Encourage conservation. • Use market forces to reduce demand during critical periods. • Connect and expand water infrastructure. • Support technical innovations (e.g., advanced wastewater treatment and reuse) • Encourage flexibility in water allocation using water banks, water pools, and water markets.

11. Possible Options for Adapting Hydro Operations • Adjust reservoir operations / hydro generation rule curves for a changing climate. • Conserve electricity to reduce overall demand. • Use market forces to reduce electricity demand during critical periods. • Purchase power on the open market to reduce pressure on the hydro system. • Increase capacity, diversity, and interconnectivity of hydropower generation. • Shift electricity production toward renewables, nuclear or thermal generation to reduce pressure on the hydro system.

12. Possible Options for Adapting Fish Management • Evaluate climate change impacts through entire fish life cycles and manage accordingly. • Integrate climate change information into salmon recovery planning. • Improve water quality by reducing pollution. • Maintain biodiversity and protect diverse fish habitats. • Find ways to reduce summer water temperatures and supplement low summer streamflows. • Consider creative engineering solutions that will aid fish migration and improve fish environments.

13. Possible Options for Adapting Agriculture • Manage agricultural industry for a changing climate (e.g., promote greater use of heat-resistant, pest-resistant, and disease-resistant crops) • Provide incentives for improved water conservation. • Use market forces to distribute water (e.g., water banking/water markets). • Diversify and expand water infrastructure.

14. Managing Risk and Uncertainty • Risk and uncertainty are (and always will be) a part of all decision-making exercises • Implement “no regrets” / “low regrets” strategies • “No regrets” (or “win-win”) strategies provide benefits today as well as in the future (e.g., conservation program) • “Low regrets” strategies provide benefits at relatively little cost or risk (e.g., adding 10% more reservoir capacity in anticipation of climate change impacts) • Modeling to consider “what if” scenarios

15. More information on PNW climate impacts and planning for climate change is available from The Climate Impacts Group www.cses.washington.ed/cig Lara Whitely Binder lwb123@u.washington.edu