The AIACC Project: Climate Change Impacts & Adaptations Assessment

1. The AIACC ProjectAssessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions & Sectors UNFCCC Workshop Bonn 9 June 2003

2. Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature (IPCC, 2001)

3. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable • Significant exposures to potentially adverse impacts on crop yields, human health, water • Large share of population earns livelihoods from climate sensitive activities (agriculture, livestock, fisheries) • Large share of population lives in extreme poverty • Low capacity to adapt due to low levels of human, financial, natural, physical and technological resources; limited institutional capabilities

4. Developing sound adaptation strategies requires good science • Scientific investigation needed to answer: • Who are most vulnerable? • What are the causes of their vulnerability? • What are their options for adaptation and what are the consequences and costs of adaptation? • Answering these questions can help to identify effective adaptation strategies

5. AIACC Partners • AIACC is a partnership among GEF, UNEP, START, TWAS, IPCC, and developing country institutions • GEF provides the principal funding • UNEP is the implementing agency • START and TWAS are the executing agencies • Participating institutions in developing countries have provided collateral funding • Additional funding comes from USAID, USEPA, CIDA and World Bank

6. AIACC Objectives • Advance scientific understanding • Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions. • Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity in developing countries • To investigate I, A & V and • To participate in international scientific assessments (e.g. IPCC, MA) • Contribute to National Communications, NAPAs and adaptation planning

7. Means to achieving objectives • Fund regional research projects • Provide training and mentoring • Engage stakeholders in the project • Link with National Communications • Establish a network of scientists and stakeholders to endure beyond the AIACC project

8. AIACC funds regional research • 150+ proposals submitted • Proposals were peer reviewed • 24 Awards made in 2002 based on • Scientific merit • Regional significance • Endorsed by GEF National Focal Points • $100k-$250k awarded to regional studies for 2-3 years of research • Regional studies add to scientific knowledge and capacity

9. AIACC studies active in 46 developing countries • Each study involves a team of scientists from multiple disciplines • 235+ scientists from developing countries participating as investigators • 60+ graduate and undergraduate students • 40+ scientists from developed countries collaborating

11. AIACC provides training • Global training workshops • Regional workshops organized by regional study teams • Additional small grants to AIACC participants (USAID supported) • Visiting scientist exchanges • Develop & implement own training activities

12. AIACC Provides Mentoring Team of 10 AIACC mentors to assist throughout the project • Advice on methods, data, scenarios, models • Troubleshooting • Referrals to other sources of expertise • Encourage/facilitate peer review publication • Encourage/facilitate contributions to National Communications

13. Stakeholders, Nat’l Communications, Networks • AIACC engages stakeholders • For input to objectives, approaches, evaluation of adaptations, review of outputs • AIACC links with National Communications • Each regional study making contact with relevant ministries, committees, persons • AIACC builds networks • Through participation in studies, workshops, “discuss aiacc” list-serve, and web-based database and information network

14. Commonalities among regional studies • Most are interested in • Near-term consequences of climate change for people • Interactions with other stresses or threats • Human and social aspects of vulnerability • Response strategies (i.e. adaptation) that would lessen risks from climate change AND address other more immediate threats • Has led many AIACC studies to take a “2nd Generation” approach to assessment

15. 2nd-Generation Assessments • Emphasize understanding human side of vulnerabilities • Who is vulnerable to harm? From what? Why? • Explore multiple, interacting stresses • Climate change, extreme weather, population growth, land use change, urbanization, land degradation . . . • Evaluate responses, adaptations • Focus responses on causes of vulnerability • Engage stakeholders • Enhance relevance, utility, credibility

16. Anticipated outcomes • Advance science • Publication of peer reviewed papers, thematic reports that expand literature on developing country I, A and V • Citation of AIACC findings in IPCC & MA reports • Build capacity • Participants continue their research and link to policy • Increased numbers of developing country researchers engaged in IPCC, global change research • Contribute to National Communications • AIACC participants collaborate in preparation of Nat’l Communications • Use of AIACC findings in National Communicaitons