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Local Climate Impacts Profile

Local Climate Impacts Profile. LCLIP GLOUCESTERSHIRE. Profiling the impact of extreme weather over ten years 1998- 2008. Where are we vulnerable now?. How can we adapt to extreme weather in the future?. Methodology. Media Survey Interviews within Local Authority

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Local Climate Impacts Profile

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  1. Local Climate Impacts Profile

  2. LCLIP GLOUCESTERSHIRE • Profiling the impact of extreme weather over ten years 1998- 2008 Where are we vulnerable now? How can we adapt to extreme weather in the future?

  3. Methodology Media Survey Interviews within Local Authority Expand process to include district councils and external partners Phase 1: County Council Phase 2: District Councils Phase 3: External partners, e.g PCT, Police etc

  4. Media Survey 129Media Articles 65Unique Weather Events 270reported impacts

  5. Dominant Extreme Weather Types • Excessive Rainfall/ Flooding • Storms These two categories account for: 69% of unique weather events, and 77% of reported incidents

  6. Impacts of Extreme Weather Excessive Rain/ Flooding Storms/ Hurricanes/ Tornadoes (High winds) High temperature/ Heat waves Frost/ Ice/ Snow (Low Temperatures)

  7. Flooding • 1998-2008: 45 media reports 12 unique events 37% of reported impacts • Twin Threat: Flash Flooding Riverine Flooding UKCIP02 Projections • Winters up to 30% wetter by 2080 • Frequency of heavy rainfall events to increase • Although summers projected to be significantly drier on average, heavy downpours may account for more of the total

  8. Case Study: Summer 2007 (July 20th 2007) “Towns grind to a halt in the flooding” Widespread Rapid Flash Flooding 10,000 motorists stranded on flooded M5 500 commuters stranded at Gloucester Train Station 2000 people stay in emergency rest centres 1 Extreme Riverine Flooding(July 22nd-23rd 2007) “Worst day in living memory” Rivers Severn and Avon burst their banks - Many communities completely cut off by flood waters, inc.Tewkesbury - 5 deaths, thousands of homes are flooded, emergency services work 24/7 - Mythe Water treatment plant flooded – Walham substation narrowly escapes - 350,000 people without drinking water for two weeks (Longlevens, June 25th 2007) Rapid Flash flooding “A Floody Mess” Waters hit 4ft then recede completely within 8 hours, wrecking many properties. 2 3

  9. Costs to the Council Property Damage: Schools: £2.4 million Non-ed: £135,000 Recovery Costs £50m And counting… Infrastructure: Highways: £25m+ repairs to roads Social Services: Re-housing costs Looking after the vulnerable Disruption to Council Business: Understaffing/ overload Communication problems Alt. travel: £21,000, Closure of Shire Hall Pressure on services:Fire and Rescue: £233,000 overtime Waste: Cost of clean-up, Cost of extra waste Unforeseen issues

  10. Waste Management Department: £206,000 to dispose of extra waste generated by floods Costs of clean-up? Costs of Collection? Publicity and outreach department shutdown for two weeks- cost?

  11. Council Contact Centre Overwhelmed Abandonment rate for Council Direct hits 10.8% (7.8% ave.)

  12. Communities in Crisis 5 Lives lost Many lives saved Homes wiped out Families lost everything 350,000 without water Inches from catastrophic loss of power • Health risk- stagnant water- two weeks without working toilets • Agriculture- crops wiped out, winter-fodder destroyed • Impact on business and tourism- No power, no water Gloucestershire perceived as ‘closed for business’ • Long-term psychological impact? • Long-term viability of communities that flood repeatedly?

  13. Adaptation implications Fluvial Flooding (Rivers) • Restrict flood-plain development (affordable homes or poverty traps?) • Intelligent flood defence- demountable barriers, low intensity land-use, expansion of wetland areas (nature map) - dialogue with farming community • Multi-agency flood response • Predictable impacts- response planning Pluvial (Flash) Flooding • Unpredictable, rapid impacts • very little time to react • Potentially more dangerous (M5 flooding) • Researching hotspots • Focus on community resilience Dealing with psychological impact is an important element of community resilience

  14. Storms (inc. high winds) • 1998-2008: 55 media reports 44 unique events 42% of reported impacts Threat to life, disruption to roads and power UKCIP02 Projections • Heavier winter precipitation expected to become more frequent • Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather are expected to become more frequent

  15. Impact of storms on GCC Department/ Unit Highways Removing obstructions Roadside maintenance All Departments Travel disruption Business continuity Health and Safety External events Legal Civil liability claims CAC/ CYP Social services Power cuts Safeguarding the vulnerable Waste Potential shutdown of landfill sites Property Services Damage to buildings

  16. Countywide Impact 36 incidences of power failure: • 20th February 2008: 3,469 homes- Cheltenham • 12th January 2005: 17,000 homes • 27th October 2002:33,000 homes (Forest of Dean) • 15th December 2000:Storm knocks out power at nursing home 6 schools close • 29th October 2000:Fire Service/ Police: 700 call-outs

  17. Transport • 14 Roads closures due to fallen trees Real figure much higher • e.g, M5 closed Electricity cables blown onto carriageway 3rd August 2004 • Train services delayed/ cancelled Sapperton tunnel collapses after storm knocking out services in Stroud valleys for 8 weeks- 1st October 2000

  18. Cancellation of public events RAF International Air Tattoo 14th July 2008 CANCELLED Cheltenham Racing Festival Day 2- 12th March 2008 CANCELLED Bonfire Night Gloucester Docks 2000 CANCELLED Jousting Berkeley Castle July 2007 CANCELLED

  19. Near misses !!! Pub sign crashes through window of parked car !!!11th March 2008 !!! Mini-tornado, Chelt: 30ft pane of glass blown out !!! 9th November 2007 !!!Mini-tornado, Tuffley:hurls roof tiles, debris, smashes windows !!! 12th December 2006 !!! Tree wrecks summerhouse and garden sheds !!!Cheltenham 2nd June 2006 !!! Falling tree narrowly misses drivers on A417 !!!15th March 2004 !!! Flag Pole peril over King’s Square !!! 15th November 2003

  20. Adapting to storms Public information Ensure that external fittings (signs etc) and windows are resistant to high wind Emphasise the dangers of driving in high winds/ storms, esp. in F.o.D Stay indoors if possible Tree stability surveys may not be feasible Designing resilience into new developments Ensuring that council properties are resistant (secure roofs, fittings etc.) More support for event organisers Tourism marketing Prepare for the worst Ensure emergency plans in place to deal with hurricanes, severe tornadoes

  21. High Temperatures 1998-2008: 27 media reports 9 unique events 16% of reported impacts Benefits shouldn’t blind us to the potentially severe negative impacts of prolonged hot spells UKCIP02 Projections • Hotter, drier summers • Gloucestershire average temperature to increase by up to 3°C by 2050 and 5°C by 2080

  22. Impact of heat waves on GCC CAC/ CYP School conditions Vulnerable people (home/ day centres) Health and Safety Protecting workers from sunburn/ heat stroke Department/ Unit Fire and Rescue Increase in fires (Esp. barn fires) Highways Heat damage to roads Gritting required Threat to infrastructure Roadside maintenance Traffic signals Transport - Air conditioning Waste Environment health issues Property Services - Ventilation/ air conditioning

  23. Countywide benefits 2003 HEAT WAVE (August 4th-13th) “We’re so grape-ful” 2003- Vineyards enjoy vintage year “86 degrees and it’s going to get much hotter” Record visits to swimming pools and water parks “County is cashing in on visitors” Bourton-on-the-Water Model village = Visitor numbers Up 4% Future Opportunities Agriculture: Inc. growing season - better yields, new crops Tourism: Gloucestershire could benefit from extra summer visitors as Italy, Spain, Greece etc become uncomfortably hot

  24. Negative impacts Lives at risk Risk to elderly population Heightened skin cancer risk Increased threat of fire Especially in forest of dean Impact on biodiversity Loss of Beech trees HEAT WAVES Heat & Drought Water shortages Threat to crops Threat to animals/ biodiversity “Too hot to shop” High street trade suffers (Aug1999) Potential link to crime?

  25. Adapting to extreme heat Planning: Building design- air conditioning/ ventilation in schools and other council properties Heat wave plans: Lists of vulnerable people, public warnings, sun protection for staff Horizon scanning: High temp, dry conditions, high winds = forest fire threat to Forest of Dean? Exploring opportunities: Agriculture/ tourism/ trade = providing stakeholders with accurate projections Waste: Accelerated rotting of waste in summer - need for seasonal waste collection? e.g weekly in summer, fortnightly in winter

  26. Frost, Ice, Snow • 1998-2008: 6 media reports 4 unique events 5% of reported impacts Threat of extreme cold weather will recede …more likely to catch authorities off guard? Stroud Valleys most vulnerable UKCIP02 Projections • Warmer winters: fewer cold days, snowfall increasingly rare • Cold snaps shorter in duration

  27. Impact of ice/snow on GCC All Departments Under-staffing if roads badly affected by snow CAC/ CYP • Schools Closures • Fuel poverty Department/ Unit Transport - School transport Highways • Gritting/ snow ploughs • Winter maintenance Property Services - Freeze-thaw damage

  28. Heavy Snow in Stroud (November 2005) 400 abandoned vehicles across road network police use 4x4s to reach stranded motorists 38 GCC gritters work through the night to clear roads 12 primary schools close

  29. Car skids into tree on B4078 Mother and Baby killed (3rd January 2001) Water Mains Pipe Bursts in freezing conditions- supplies cut to 2000 homes(4th January 2002)

  30. Adapting to extreme • Reduced spend on gritters, winter maintenance • Reduced spend on heating council properties • Important to retain capacity to respond to unseasonable snowfall- e.g April 2000

  31. Extreme Weather - Key Messages Adaptation at service level Each department to consider more fully the implications of extreme weather and broader climate changes for its operations and objectives This should form and integral element of forward planning and risk management Future proof planning Extreme weather resilience to be given high priority within planning process alongside broader climate change objectives Importance of Local Resilience Forum Regular LA liaison with emergency services and utilities to ensure that energy and water supplies are not threatened by extreme weather events Public information As climate change projections become more detailed key messages should be communicated to business and individuals to better enable them to adapt to extreme weather and climate change in Gloucestershire

  32. Thank you for listening Thank you

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