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Method for prediction of off Ibaraki M7 characteristic earthquakes based on seismicity change

Method for prediction of off Ibaraki M7 characteristic earthquakes based on seismicity change. Shozo Matsumura (NIED). B: 2008M7.0. A: １９８２ M7.0. Seamount discovered by Mochizuki et al. (2008). Recent Characteristic Earthquakes off Ibaraki Prefecture.

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Method for prediction of off Ibaraki M7 characteristic earthquakes based on seismicity change

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  1. Method for prediction of off Ibaraki M7 characteristic earthquakes based on seismicity change Shozo Matsumura (NIED)

  2. B: 2008M7.0 A: １９８２M7.0 Seamount discovered by Mochizuki et al. (2008) Recent Characteristic Earthquakes off Ibaraki Prefecture

  3. One Century History of Characteristic Earthquakes Sequence off Ibaraki Prefecture 27.4y 19.9y 22.4y 16.8y 25.8y ？ a 2027 - 2035 b A B Ｃ d1 c d2

  4. Event A Event B Micro-seismicity observed by NIED for 30 years

  5. 2007.7.8. – 2007.12.7. 2007.12.8. – 2008.5.7. Micro-earthquake Density Maps before event B Ratio of Density Maps Before event B

  6. Before event Correlation coefficient r(A:B) = 0.577 Degree of freedom n = 22 Significance level e = 0.16 % Before event

  7. A: 1982.7.23. B: 2008.5.8. 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Correlation coefficient (r)

  8. asperities Ｐａｃｉｆｉｃ　Ｐｌａｔｅ

  9. The point of this method is existence of “Preparing stage” • Distribution of inhomogeneous asperities • Quasi-static slipping • Stress redistribution

  10. B: 2008.5.8. Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2007 2008 3.5 months before 4 days before r0 = 0.53 Correlation coefficient (r)

  11. B: 2008.5.8. Correlation coefficient (r) Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb rB rA 2008 2009

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