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NEC-PI Meeting Brussels 12-13/07/2006 Dr. L. Mantzos E3M-LAB/ICCS NTUA

PRIMES model scenario results for the EU25. NEC-PI Meeting Brussels 12-13/07/2006 Dr. L. Mantzos E3M-LAB/ICCS NTUA contact: Kapros@central.ntua.gr. Recent work with PRIMES model. Since DG TREN publications (‘Trends’ and ‘Key Drivers’) a complete update of PRIMES database carried out

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NEC-PI Meeting Brussels 12-13/07/2006 Dr. L. Mantzos E3M-LAB/ICCS NTUA

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  1. PRIMES model scenario results for the EU25 NEC-PI Meeting Brussels 12-13/07/2006 Dr. L. Mantzos E3M-LAB/ICCS NTUA contact: Kapros@central.ntua.gr

  2. Recent work with PRIMES model • Since DG TREN publications (‘Trends’ and ‘Key Drivers’) a complete update of PRIMES database carried out • Eurostat statistics up to 2003 and available information for 2004, 2005 • Revision of the power plant database, including information on new constructions and projects • Updated information on prices, taxes and tariffs • New database on electricity and gas interconnections and future projects • Updated information about renewables: potential, non linear cost curves, learning by doing, etc. • New improved electricity and steam sub-model: optimal power flow and investment expansion over a set of regional electricity markets • With new projections for • Economic growth of the EU and sectoral structure • International fuel prices E3mlab - NTUA

  3. Recent trends • Oil and gas prices are more than 50% higher than expected three years ago • Oil 55-60 $/bbl – Gas 6-7 $/MMBtu • Renewable support policies have promoted penetration of wind and other energies more than expected • Investment in combined cycle gas plants developed slower than expected, signals of reemergence of coal plant investment • Generally slowdown of investment under the context of liberalized market • Discussions about nuclear and coal for the longer term E3mlab - NTUA

  4. The new DG TREN baseline scenario PRIMES model

  5. Year 2005 460 million people 9,715 billion € GDP 1,744 Mtoe Gross Energy Needs 904 Mtoe Imported Energy 3,177 TWh Electricity Generation 726,000 MW of Power Generation Capacity 3,800 Mt of CO2 Emissions Growth Prospects To 2030 Stable 2.0% per year 0.3% per year 1.3% per year 1.3% per year 32,400 MW new Power Plants per year (for expansion and replacement) 0.2% per year EU-25: Overview E3mlab - NTUA

  6. E3mlab - NTUA

  7. Baseline scenario resultsEU-25 primary energy needs:Structure by fuel • Solids: lower in the medium term but re-emerge in the long run • Natural Gas: strategic importance, 58% of incremental demand • Oil: sector-specific fuel, stable demand but maintains high share in consumption • Renewables: high growth but still have a low share (12% in 2030) • Nuclear: decreases after 2010, depends on plants’ lifetime and nuclear phase-out policies E3mlab - NTUA

  8. EU-25: Energy related CO2 Emissions • The Transport sector is mainly responsible for increased emissions and the persisting dependence on oil imports • The Electricity Generation sector (part of Supply Side) is responsible for higher CO2 emissions in the long run, as part of nuclear is decommissioned and coal re-emerges E3mlab - NTUA

  9. EU-25: Total GHGs Emissions • The role of CO2 emissions becomes increasingly important for the evolution of total GHGs emissions over the projection period • From 79.4% in 1990 up to 82.6% in 2030 E3mlab - NTUA

  10. PRIMES scenarios for the NEC review

  11. PRIMES scenarios for the NEC review • Variant 1: 0 Euros’00 per t of CO2 for all sectors (including ETS) • Variant 2: 20 Euros’00 per t of CO2 for all sectors in 2020 (from 12 Euros’00 per t of CO2 in 2010) • Variant 3: 90 Euros’00 per t of CO2 for all sectors in 2020 (from 12 Euros’00 per t of CO2 in 2010) • Variants 2-3 constitute an update of the CAFE/TSAP baseline and the TSAP “high carbon price” scenario respectively • Both variants examined with and without the option of geological CCS • Results differ only for Variant 3 • Post Kyoto GHGs Emissions Reduction Scenarios: targets of -15% and -30% from 1990 levels to be met by 2020 • Marginal abatement cost curves constructed with and without the option of geological CCS • Projections for total CO2 emissions with the use of PRIMES model • Evolution of non-CO2 GHGs estimated on the basis of GAINS model projections for the Baseline scenario • In reaching -15% in 2020 a carbon constraint of 54.2 Euros’00 per t of CO2 (from 38.3 Euros’00 per t of CO2 in 2010) is required both with and without the option of geological CCS • The target of -30% in 2020 is achieved with a carbon constraint of 125.5 Euros’00 per t of CO2 if the option of geological CCS is available • Without geological CCS a carbon constraint of 159.0 Euros’00 per t of CO2 in 2020 leads to a reduction of GHGs emissions by -25.7% from 1990 levels E3mlab - NTUA

  12. Marginal abatement cost curves for 2020with and without the option of CCS E3mlab - NTUA

  13. Energy related CO2 emissions in 2020for the different cases examined E3mlab - NTUA

  14. Incremental primary energy needsin 2005-2030 for the different cases examined E3mlab - NTUA

  15. Key EU25 energy system indicatorsfor the different cases examined E3mlab - NTUA

  16. Thank you for your attention

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