Gulf Hurricane Prediction and Production Loss Analysis Conference

Storm Impact 2013 User Conference Hosted by Maersk – Houston November 14, 2013 Scott Morris Earth Science Associates Long Beach, CA

Goals • Predict if a hurricane will enter the Gulf of Mexico • Predict lost production • Platform • Gulf Wide • Update predictions using the newest data

Determining if a Hurricane Will Enter the Gulf • Use existing data on storms since 1950 • We have path segments for storms since 1922 but they are not named • We end up with 631 storm paths • Given a storm’s current position, can we decide if it will enter the Gulf of Mexico?

Path of All Named Storms

Area of Interest

Storms that Entered the Gulf

Grid Extending to Barbados 10 Storms Total 5 entering the Gulf

Probability of Entering Gulf

Wind Speeds

Platforms Directly Affected

Predicting Gulf Wide Losses • Regression analysis • Current production and wind speed should be able to predict the loss of production caused by a hurricane • Experimenting with different models • Production is taken from platforms in the path of the hurricane

Platforms 20 kilometers from path

Preliminary Regression Results

Problems and Refinement • Multiple hurricanes occurring in the same month • Currently treating these as a single hurricane • Varying wind speeds not taken into account • Platforms directly in the path are weighted the same as those 20 kilometers away

Workflow Determine if current hurricane is likely to enter the Gulf Determine platforms directly affected by Hurricane and create charts and tables Make prediction for Gulf Wide production lost based on hurricane path Upload findings and charts to website Check for updated data from NOAA

Gulf Hurricane Prediction and Production Loss Analysis Conference