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Observation 14116 – simulation updated on 2014/29 noon

Observation 14116 – simulation updated on 2014/29 noon. S. Legrand, RBINS-OD Nature. Oserit simulation ID 1096. 18 m3 on a surface of 10 km x 0,8 km Start time : 2014/06/27 – 12:12 UTC End time : 2014/07/01 – 13:00 UTC 3D simulation with wind, current, waves

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Observation 14116 – simulation updated on 2014/29 noon

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  1. Observation 14116 – simulation updated on 2014/29 noon S. Legrand, RBINS-OD Nature

  2. Oserit simulation ID 1096 • 18 m3 on a surface of 10 km x 0,8 km • Start time : 2014/06/27 – 12:12 UTC • End time : 2014/07/01 – 13:00 UTC • 3D simulation with wind, current, waves • Possibility of natural vertical dispersion and resurfacing • No weathering (no evaporation, no emulsification,…)

  3. Full trajectory Entire simulation Maximal oil concentration

  4. Snapshot of Lagrangianparticules 2014/06/30 – 12:00 UTC 2014/07/01 – 13:00 UTC

  5. Beaching risk – small amount since oil density < 1 ppm

  6. Interpretation • In comparison with the previous simulations, the wind is slightly weaker and turns earlier from N-NNE to NE. • Waves swell (<1m) continue to push slick in direction N-NW. • The combination of both effect makes that most fraction of the slick will remain at a distance of 8 to 13 nm from the BE coastline. The simulation length does not allow us to estimate the further fate of the slick and in particular the associated risk of beaching. • The small fraction of the slick that will be pushed at a distance of < 4nm from Dombourg and Westkapelle, will be trapped in the particular currents system between the Vlakte Van De Raan and the Scheldt river’s mouth and might finally be beached between Zeebrugge and Breskens. The estimated oil concentration at sea is less than 1 ppm, meaning that the beached oil will very likely have the form of small tarball.

  7. Uncertainties (1) • The volume of the oil that can be beached depends on the slick fraction that will pass at a distance of less than 4 nm from Domberg and then be trapped between the Vlakte van de Raan and the Scheldt river. An accurate simulation of such specific feature remains a challenge…

  8. Uncertainties (2) • The discused simulation is made for the light oil fraction that has resurfaced after its release from the Baltic Ace wreck. The simulation therefore is not valid for the heaviest fraction of the released oil that might be drifting below the sea surface. The volume of this heavy fraction is unknown but a preliminary simulation shows that it should remained in the NL waters drifting towards the continent

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