Florida Keys / Dry Tortugas Regional CEM

1. Florida Keys / Dry Tortugas Regional CEM Available on MARES homepage as: strawman fkdt cem 5 dec 09.ppt

2. Florida Keys / Dry Tortugas Regional CEM • CEM objectives and approach to development • Existing related models • Overall structure of FK/DT CEM model • Responses – management activities • Sub-models • Defining characteristics and crtitical science needs

3. Objectives for MARES CEMs • Description of regional ecosystem • CEM elements • Defining characteristics of ecosystem (DPSIR Impacts) • Critical unknowns / science needs

5. SFN NPS CEM

6. Conceptual Ecological Models(Ogden et al. 2005) • Identify anthropogenic stressors, their ecological effects, and attributes useful in monitoring and forecasting ecosystem response. • Diagram qualitative explanations of how human activities alter ecology. • Tool for developing consensus and communicating working hypotheses. • Basis for specifying performance measures and developing monitoring and modeling activities to support restoration and management.

8. Model Framework

9. SFN NPS CEM

10. CEM Components • Major components: • Drivers: forces with large-scale influences on ecosystem • Stressors: physical or chemical changes caused by drivers within ecosystem • Ecological effects: physical, chemical and biological responses caused by the stressors • Attributes: parsimonious subset representative of overall conditions in ecosystem • Models depict general pathways by which large-scale drivers affect ecosystem attributes that are important to people. • External drivers create internal stressors creating ecological effects that lead to changes in ecosystem attributes.

11. DPSIR Framework Components Drivers: Socio-economic sectors that fulfill human needs and drive human activities, often leading to intentional or unintentional changes in ecosystems. Drivers are affected if changes are made to alter human activities for protection of ecosystems. Pressures: Human activities that exert positive or negative pressure on ecosystems. State: Status of the environmental (physical & chemical) and ecological (biological) components of the ecosystem. Physical, biological, and chemical processes interact to affect different structures (chemicals, species) that are measured by their attributes. Attributes are characteristics that contribute to ecosystem services. Environmental processes can also affect drivers and pressures, e.g. drought influencing agriculture or storm events influencing non-point source pollution. Impacts: Changes in the quality and functioning of the ecosystem have an impact on the welfare (well-being) of humans. Services are the benefits that ecosystems can provide, and their value depends on human need and use (e.g., market value). Services: Functions of the ecosystem that benefit humans in the short term or long term. Services depend on the attributes of the ecosystem. Value: The economic, cultural, or ecological value of the services. Values depend on the attributes of the state and characteristics of the drivers and pressures. For example, corals can provide shoreline protection, but the value depends on the frequency of hurricanes and the number of hotels/houses near the coast. Values, in turn, can affect the drivers and pressures. For example, fish biomass can sustain fisheries and influence ship-building. Response: Humans make decisions in response to perceived value. Ecosystem values are too often ignored in decisions because they are viewed as ‘free’. Ecosystem services should change perceptions of value and alter human responses, which can create changes in drivers and pressures.

12. Review Related CEMs • SFN NPS CEM • EPA Coral Reef model • CERP Mangrove estuaries model • CERP Florida Bay model • Florida Keys ecosystem model

13. SFN NPS CEM

14. EPA Coral Reef Conceptual Model

15. CERP Mangrove Estuaries Conceptual Model

16. CERP Florida Bay Conceptual Model

17. Florida Keys Ecosystem Model Regional Circulation Patterns Larval Transport Forcing Functions Global Warming Nutrients From Keys “Upstream” Inputs Fishing (Commercial & Recreational) Use of Pesticides Upwelling Storms Habitat Degradation Nitrogen & Phosphorus Stresses Toxins Temperature Turbidity Fishery Pressure Phytoplankton Biotic Components Bleaching Macroalgae Epiphytes Seagrasses ? Coral Zooplankton Other Inverts Disease Planktivorous Fishes Reef Fish Herbivorous Fish (Due to space limitations this Ecosystem Model does not include Mangrove and Hardbottom communities) Piscivorous Fishes Detritus

18. Florida Keys / Dry Tortugas Regional CEM • DPSIR Framework • Response related to management objectives and activities • Region-wide Drivers and Pressures • Ecosystem (State) divided into sub-models • Impacts indentify key attributes for monitoring and assessment (Indicators)

19. Florida Keys / Dry Tortugas Regional CEM Responses Drivers Pressures State Water quality Fish & shellfish Mangrove Seagrass Coral & hardbottom Impacts

20. Drivers and Pressures • Use similar or complimentary Drivers and Responses across the entire SFTME • Drivers: Freshwater Runoff (Water Mgmt), Climate Change, Waste Disposal, Land Development • Responses: Alter Water Releases, Adjust Waste Mgmt practices, Set Nutrient Criteria, Alter Land-use, Environmnetal Education, Control Carbon Emissions

21. HUMAN ACTIVITIES DRIVERS & ACTIVITIES HARVESTING RESOURCE USE DEVELOPMENT ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS BIOLOGICAL STRESSORS STRESSORS • Space Competition • Predation • Bioerosion • Diseases • Light (UV, PAR) • Salinity • Temperature • Physical Damage • Sedimentation • Sea Level Changes • Changes in Circulation Patterns • Changes in Atmospheric Chemistry [CO2] • Nutrients • Sedimentation • Turbidity • Salinity • Solid Waste • Chemicals • Physical Damage • Harvesting EFFECTS CORAL REEF AND HARDBOTTOM CONCEPTUAL MODEL FRAMEWORK CLIMATE GLOBAL CHANGE EXTREME CONDITIONS SEASONAL CHANGES ENVIRONMENTAL STRESSORS

22. Ranking of Coral Threats (1993) Kleypas and Eakin, 2007 BMS

23. Ranking of Coral Threats (2004) Kleypas and Eakin, 2007 BMS

24. Responses(Human Dimensions) • (add information here based on agency perspectives, mandates, management objectives, and management activities)

25. Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas Region Jurisdictions and Authorities

26. Legislative Directives National Marine Sanctuaries Act, Title 16, Chap 32, Sections 1431 at seq, US Code Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Protection Act, PL 101 - 605 Organic Act for National Parks Endangered Species Act (ESA), 16 U.S.C. §§ 1531-1543. Magnuson Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MFCMA), 16 U.S.C. § 1801 et seq. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), 16 U.S.C. §§ 1361 et seq. Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA), 16 U.S.C. §§ 703 et seq. Clean Water Act (CWA), 33 U.S.C. § 1251 et seq. Florida Environmental Land and Water Management Act of 1972, Title 28, Natural Resources; Conservation, Reclamation, and Use, Chapter 380, Land and Water Management, sections 380.012-380.12. Florida Wetlands Protection Act, Title 29, Public Health, Chapter 403, Environmental Control, sections 403.91 - 403.929 (known as the Warren S. Henderson Wetlands Protection Act of 1984). Title 28, Natural Resources; Conservation, Reclamation, and Use, Chapter 370, Saltwater Fisheries. Title 28, Natural Resources; Conservation, Reclamation, and Use, Chapter 372, Wildlife Florida Clean Vessel Act, Vessel Registration and Safety, Chapter 327, Marine Sanitation, section 327.53. Florida Air and Water Pollution Control Act, Title 29, Public Health, Chapter 403, Environmental Control sections 403.011 et seq. Anti-degradation for Surface Water Quality, Outstanding Florida Waters, FAC 17-3.041 Special Protection for Outstanding Florida Waters, FAC 17-4.242 Stormwater Discharge Regulations, FAC 17-25.001. Water Quality Standards. FAC 17-3.011.

27. Legislative Directives Environmental Protection Act of 1971, Title 29, Public Health, Chapter 403, Environmental Control, sections 403.412 et seq. Florida Pollutant Spill Prevention and Control Act, Title 28, Natural Resources; Conservation, Reclamation, and Use, Chapter 376, Pollutant Discharge Prevention, sections 376.011-376.319 Surface Water Improvement and Management Act, Title 28, Natural Resources, Chapter 373, Surface Waters, sections 373.451-373.4596. Water Resources Restoration and Preservation Act, Title 29, Public Health, Chapter 403, Environmental Control, sections 403.0615 et seq. Water Resources Act of 1972, Title 28, Natural Resources; Conservation, Reclamation, and Use, Chapter 373, Water Resource Plan, sections 373.026 et seq. Local Government Comprehensive Planning and Land Development Regulation Act, Title 11, County Organization and Intergovernmental Relations, Chapter 163, Intergovernmental Programs, sections 163.3161 et seq. Local Planning Regulations, FAC 9J-5 [9J-ll, 9J-12, 9J-24, 9J-26, and 9J-29]. State Comprehensive Planning Act of 1972, Title 13, Planning and Development, Chapter 186, State and Regional Planning, sections 186.001 et seq., and Chapter 187, State Comprehensive Plan. Wastewater Facilities Regulation - Chapter 17-600, F.A.C., Chapters 17-610, F.A.C., and 17-640, F.A.C., Chapter 17-40, F.A.C., Chapters 17-4 and 17-302, F.A.C. Underground Injection Well Control - Chapter 17-28 F.A.C. Septic tanks, or on-site sewage disposal systems (OSDS) - Section 20.19, Florida Statutes (F.S.) sections 381. 0064-66, F.S. Chapter lOD-6 of the Florida Administrative Code (FAC). Abandoned Shipwreck Act of 1987 (ASA), 43 U.S.C. §§ 2101 et seq. Coastal Barrier Resources Act of 1982, as amended (CBRA), 16 U.S.C. § 3501 et seq. Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended (CZMA), 16 U.S.C. §§ 1451 et seq.

28. Sub-models • Water quality • Fish and shellfish • Mangrove shoreline • Seagrass habitat • Coral and hardbottom habitat

29. Water Quality Sub-model Drivers Pressures State To Be Determined Impacts

30. Fish and Shellfish Sub-model Drivers Pressures State Impacts Based on original Florida Bay model, Rudnick et al. 2005

31. Mangrove Sub-model Drivers Pressures State Impacts Based on original mangrove model by Davis et al. 2005

32. Seagrass Sub-model Drivers Pressures State Impacts Based on original Florida Bay model, Rudnick et al. 2005

33. Coral and Hardbottom Sub-model Drivers Pressures State To Be Determined Impacts

35. Coral and Hardbottom sub-model STRESSORS REDUCED GROWTH INCREASED SUSCEPTIBILITY REDUCED REGENERATION CORAL MORTALITY COMMUNITY SHIFTS EFFECTS REDUCED REPRODUCTION REDUCED RECRUITMENT BREAKAGE BLEACHING LANDSCAPE DIVERSITY TOPOGRAPHICAL COMPLEXITY CORAL DIVERSITY TROPHIC DIVERSITY WATER QUALITY CORAL COVER & ABUNDANCE ENDPOINTS VEAs REEF STRUCTURE CORAL COVER, ABUNDANCE, & DISTRIBUTION CALCIFICATION & GROWTH REPRODUCTION & RECRUITMENT INDICATORS FRAGMENTATION BLEACHING INDICATOR SPECIES MOLECULAR MARKERS TROPHIC STRUCTURE DISEASE INCIDENCE FISHERIES YIELDS MACROALGAL ABUNDANCE

36. Coral and Hardbottom sub-model

37. Coral and Hardbottom sub-model

38. Output from the Workshop • Description of regional ecosystem • CEM elements • Defining characteristics of ecosystem (DPSIR Impacts) • Critical unknowns / science needs