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Executive Board meeting 31 October 2007

Executive Board meeting 31 October 2007. Inflation and interval for underlying inflation 1) 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – September 2007. CPI. Highest indicator. Lowest indicator.

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Executive Board meeting 31 October 2007

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  1. Executive Board meeting31 October 2007

  2. Inflation and interval for underlying inflation1)12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – September 2007 CPI Highest indicator Lowest indicator 1) Highest and lowest indicator of the CPI-ATE, a weighted median and the trimmed mean of the sub-indices in the CPI. 2 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  3. CPI-ATE1) Total and broken down on imported and domestically produced goods and services.2) Projections from MPR 3/07 (broken line).12-month change. Per cent Domestically produced goods and services CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care prices in 2006 2) Norges Bank's projections. 3 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  4. 29 October 2007 After previous monetary policy meeting (27 September 2007) Key policy rates and forward rates27 September and 29 October 2007 US UK Norway Euro area 4 Sources: Reuters (EcoWin), Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  5. Difference between money market rate and expected key policy rate1)3-month maturity. Percentage points. 1 April – 29 October 2007 Euro area UK US Norway2) 1)The expected key rate is measured by the Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS). 2) Norges Bank's projections. 5 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  6. Credit premia on BBB-graded corporate bonds and government bonds in emerging economies 5-year maturity. Percentage points. 1 January 2004 – 29 October 2007 Emerging economies US Europe 6 Source: Reuters (EcoWin)

  7. Market value of credit default swap indices1) for different tranches of securities backed by subprime loans19 July 2006 – 15 October 2007 AAA AA A BBB BBB- 7 1) CDSs issued in the second half of 2006 Source: JPMorgan Chase

  8. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)1) January 2002 – December 2010 Average 1 - 29 October 2007 I-44 (left-hand scale) 29 October 2007 After previous monetary policy meeting (27 September 2007) Weighted interest rate differential (right-hand scale) 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. 8 Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters (EcoWin) and Norges Bank

  9. Growth forecasts from the IMF GDP. Percentage change on previous year 2008 2007 9 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

  10. Equities Indices, 1 January 2007 = 100. 1 January 2007 – 29 October 2007 Emerging economies Norway US Japan Euro area 10 Source: Reuters (EcoWin)

  11. Average prices for crude oil and natural gas 1997 Q1 – 2007 Q3 Gas price USD/1000 Sm3 Oil price USD per barrel Weighted average gas price Statoil/Hydro (left-hand scale) Brent Blend, USD/barrel (right-hand scale)1) Gas price UK (left-hand scale)1) Norwegian gas (left-hand scale) 1)Average daily figures to date in 2007 Q4 11 Sources: Reuters (EcoWin), Statistics Norway, Statoil and Norsk Hydro

  12. Global commodity prices in USDIndices, 2000 = 100. Week 1 2000 – Week 43 2007 Metals Industrials Commodity index Food Non-food agriculturals 12 Sources: Reuters (EcoWin) and The Economist

  13. Prices for aluminiumPrice per kg. Measured in NOK and USD. Week 1 2000 – Week 43 2007 NOK (right-hand scale) USD (left-hand scale) 13 Sources: Reuters (EcoWin)

  14. Price of fresh salmon1)NOK per kilo. Week 1 2000 – Week 42 2007 14 1)Exports Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Statistical models of mainland GDPActual and projections for 2007 Q3 – Q4. Quarterly growth. Seasonally adjusted. Excluding electricity. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2007 Q4 15 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  16. Enterprise sector credit1) and liquid assets2)12-month growth3). Per cent. January 2000 – August 2007 (C3 to July) Money supply (M2) Total credit (C3) 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2). 3) Transaction-based growth estimate 16 Source: Statistics Norway

  17. Household net lendingTotal last four quarters. In billions of NOK. 2002 Q4 – 2007 Q2 National accounts Financial sector accounts (FINSE) National accounts, excluding reinvested dividends 2002–2005 17 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  18. Domestic credit to households (C2) 12-month growth. Per cent. January 2000 – August 2007 18 Source: Statistics Norway

  19. 12-month change in house prices By county and region. Per cent. January 2006 – September 2007 Rogaland Agder Oslo Whole of Norway Hedmark Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, FINN.no, ECON Pöyry, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 19

  20. Turnover of new dwellings in Eastern Norway Per cent.December 2001 – October 2007 Rate of sales 22) Rate of sales 11) 1) Turnover 1 is defined as the number of dwellings sold as a share of the total number of dwellings in the registered projects 2) Turnover 2 is defined as the number of dwellings sold during a period as a share of the number of vacant dwellings at the end of the previous period and the number of dwellings that have entered the market in the past two months 20 Sources: Statistics Norway, ECON Pöyry and Norges Bank

  21. Underlying spending growth in the government budget and nominal growth in mainland GDPPer cent. 1985 – 20081) Growth in mainland GDP Underlying spending growth Sources: Ministry of Finance (National Budget 2008) and Statistics Norway 21 1) Projections for 2007 and 2008 from the Ministry of Finance

  22. Expected real return on the Government Pension Fund - GlobalIn billions of 2008-NOK. 2002 – 2010 22 Source: Ministry of Finance (National Budget 2008)

  23. Baseline scenarios in MPR 2/07 and MPR 3/07 Output gap Key policy rate MPR 3/07 MPR 2/07 MPR 3/07 MPR 2/07 CPI-ATE CPI MPR 2/07 MPR 2/07 MPR 3/07 MPR 3/07 23 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  24. 30% 50% 70% 90% Interest rate path in different ReportsFan chart from IR 2/06 MPR 3/07 MPR 2/07 MPR 1/07 IR 3/06 IR 1/06 IR 3/05 IR 2/06 24 Source: Norges Bank

  25. Key policy rate in baseline scenario and estimated forward rates1)Per cent. At 29 October 2007 Baseline scenario MPR 3/07 Market 27 September 2007 Market 29 October 2007 I) A credit risk premium and a technical difference of 0.20 percentage point have been deducted to make the forward rates comparable with the key policy rate. 25 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  26. Executive Board meeting31 October 2007 26

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