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This study explores a surprising correlation between the number of Methodist ministers in New England and the quantity of Cuban rum imported to Boston from 1860 to 1940. Notably, a striking correlation coefficient of r = 0.999986 underscores the strong relationship; however, it raises questions about causation versus mere association. Despite the evident correlation, the factors contributing to this trend are complex and not directly causal. This example serves as a reminder to critically evaluate the implications of correlation in research.
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Association vs. Causation In a famous example of a correlation study, the following results were obtained. Number of Methodist Ministers Cuban Rum Imported in New England to Boston Year (in barrels) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1860 63 8376 1865 48 6406 1870 53 7005 1875 64 8486 1880 72 9595 1885 80 10,643 1890 85 11,265 1895 76 10,071 1900 80 10,547 1905 83 11,008 1910 105 13,885 1915 140 18,559 1920 175 23,024 1925 183 24,185 1930 192 25,434 1935 221 29,238 1940 262 34,705 The correlation coefficient for this relationship is r = .999986.
