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GDP Improvement Seminar: Output Approach Office for National Statistics PowerPoint Presentation
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GDP Improvement Seminar: Output Approach Office for National Statistics

GDP Improvement Seminar: Output Approach Office for National Statistics

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GDP Improvement Seminar: Output Approach Office for National Statistics

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Presentation Transcript

  1. GDP Improvement Seminar: Output Approach Office for National Statistics

  2. Introductions

  3. Jacqui Jones Overview

  4. Overview (1) Objective: To share recent improvements in GDP with stakeholders and discuss plans for the next 12 months 1.15 StrategyAndrew Walton • National Accounts work plan • National Accounts revisions performance 2.00 Cross-cutting Improvements Jacqui Jones • Unregistered businesses Pete Lee • E-commerce Jacqui Jones • Construction review Pete Lee 2.30 Coffee Break

  5. Overview (2) 2.45 GDPO Specific improvementsPete Lee • Recent improvements in GDPO Rob Doody • Progress on industry reviews Mark Stephens • Progress on wider improvements Mark Stephens • Removing experimental statistics status Denise Blackmore 3.45 Coffee break 4.00 Web Data AccessCallum Foster Concluding remarks, actions and next steps 5.00 Finish

  6. Andrew Walton Strategy

  7. National Accounts and Related Outputs Work Plan: 2013 – 2017 Andrew WaltonAssistant Deputy Director National Accounts Coordination Division

  8. NA Work Plan • Scope • Progress so far • Why are we doing it? • Some highlights • Next steps

  9. NA Work Plan: Scope • National Accounts and components • Public Sector Finances • Balance of Payments and Trade • Short term Indicators • Regional Accounts

  10. Progress so far • Already consulted on a five-year National Accounts and related outputs plan • As a result we have published an agreed plan as a basis for future discussions with users • This is based on ‘expected’ resources • Not set in stone • Responsive to developments • But recognise that this will have an impact

  11. Why are we doing it? • User interest is very high • Lots of issues and improvements • More effective way of prioritising • Business as usual and ESA10/BPM6 takes most of the resource • Manage expectations

  12. Detail of the plan - summary • For 2014 major ESA10/BPM6 demand • Legally required so little choice • Beyond 2015 more scope • But still a lot of ESA10/BPM6 development until 2017 or 2018 • Identified the other big developments • Flow of funds • Quarterly constant price supply and use • Source improvement not quick • Plan sets out some deliverables along the path

  13. Business as Usual • Improving our Business as usual • Ensuring the range of publications meet user needs • Presenting the statistics to both expert and lay users • Making underlying data easily accessible for all users • Ensuring the production of the statistics is as streamlined as possible to maximise time available for excellent presentation • Implement a wider user engagement strategy • Communicate with users via a programme of articles and seminars that address emerging issues. • Expand the revisions database and analyses to include the main aggregates.

  14. Developments • National Accounts development & Continuous Improvement • Meeting Regulatory requirements • ESA10/BPM6 • Comply with regulations • Address GNI reservations and A points • Quality initiatives • Outcome of National Statistics Quality Review not yet in the plan • Continuous improvement

  15. National Statistics Quality Review • Scope as in this work plan • User focussed • Externally led with ‘expert’ NA support • Team identified over the summer • Review started in September • Finishing Spring 2014 • Recommendations prioritised in next year’s work plan

  16. GDP and short term indicators • Various reviews • Construction • Industry reviews • COICOP • Living costs and food survey • Compilation methods • Supply and Use developments • Annual constant price • Interim solution for detailed purchases • Input-output analytical tables

  17. GDP and short term indicators • Nominal GDP • Improving processes • Historic data • Output data • More detailed HHFCE and GFCF • ESA10 dataset alongside Blue Book 2014 • Key issue – quarterly KP SUT

  18. Quarterly constant price Supply and Use Tables • Vision would be ‘world class’ • Most countries with QSUT use large amounts of modelled data • In UK, would highlight some data deficiencies (income, Intermediate consumption, some household expenditure) • Source improvements not yet planned • Given changes to survey programme required by ESA10/BPM6, unlikely before 2019

  19. Quarterly constant price Supply and Use Tables • But we can do something • Annual KP SUT gives experience of simultaneous balancing • Develop quarterly ‘commodity flow’ for major products (e.g cars, oil, energy, construction, aircraft) • Publish by 2015 • Develop plan by 2016 for source improvement

  20. Sector and Financial Accounts • Big ESA10 challenge • More sectors and accounts • Transaction reviews • Other international • G20 data gaps, SDDS+, MIPS • Historic data • Working to restore pre-1987 data • Key issue – Flow of funds

  21. Flow of Funds • In this context means ‘from whom to whom’ • Additional data collection planned for 2018 as part of ESA10/BPM6 programme • Before then? • Bank ‘requirements’ • Update Finstats methodological guide • Articulate explicitly the coverage of the OFI sector • ‘Use more data’ • Resource arrived to start the work in September, so in the planning stage now

  22. Balance of Payment and Trade • Major BPM6 changes • No derogations so more uncertainty over delivery • Pressures on understanding new concepts • Global Value Chains • Digital economy • No plans to do anything significant other than BPM6

  23. Public Sector Finances • Aligning PSF and NA • 6 pack agreement • Review of the “ex measures” • ESA10 challenge • Review of Network Rail • State government • Social security funds • Classifications • Deal with more cases

  24. Regional accounts • Methodological enhancements • GVA(P) 'real' measure for ESA10 • Balanced estimate of regional GVA • NUTS boundary changes 2015 • Regional HHFCE (future aspiration - post 2015) • Key issue – Scottish referendum 

  25. Concluding comments • Set out in detail: • Plans for Blue Book 14 • Beyond 2014 what’s planned • For Flow of funds • For Quarterly SUT • For next year need to include response to NSQR

  26. Questions? Email: andrew.walton@ons.gsi.gov.uk

  27. Revisions Performance Andrew WaltonAssistant Deputy Director National Accounts Coordination Division

  28. Why is GDP revised? Andrew WaltonAssistant Deputy Director National Accounts Coordination Division 2 October 2013

  29. Outline • Revisions in general • How GDP is compiled • GDP revisions • Some numbers • Levels • Growths • Nominal GDP revisions • Conclusions • What’s next?

  30. Revisions to economic series • Revisions are a fact of life for most economic series • Or else: • The first estimate is delayed • Later information is ignored even when it tells a different story • Balance between accuracy and timeliness

  31. How GDP is compiled (1) • Three approaches • Output, Expenditure and Income • Perfect statistical world – all equal • Many sources • Monthly, Quarterly, Annual • Various timings • Monthly turnover (IoP around 6 weeks) • Annual tax returns (15 months)

  32. How GDP is compiled (2) • Preliminary estimate (25 days) • Accuracy and timeliness trade-off • One of the fastest in the world • Based exclusively on output, 44% data • Second estimate (8 weeks) • Growth based on output, 83% data • Publish all 3 approaches • Some provisional expenditure sources • Limited direct income information • Use of quarterly alignment adjustments

  33. How GDP is compiled (3) • Quarterly National Accounts • 13 weeks • Based on output, 92% data • Similar to second estimate • Expenditure components more firm • Revisions to previous periods but not for SU balanced years • When 4 quarters are published • Seasonally adjusted annual constrained to equal unadjusted annual

  34. How GDP is compiled (4) • Balanced supply and use • Framework for confronting differences • Levels not growths • 112 industries and products • First balance after around 18 months • BB13 balanced 2011 • Not all benchmarks always received • Second balance is usually “final” except for methodological changes

  35. Why is GDP revised? • Output source data revised • Expenditure and income • Revised seasonal factors • Annual chain-linking changes weights • Supply and use balancing • New methods • New international frameworks

  36. Some numbers: Revisions to GDP levels • Balancing supply and use fixes annual level not quarterly growth • Use quarterly path from output anchored to SUT levels • Generally small apart from methods changes

  37. The Recession: Q1 2008 to Q3 2009

  38. The Recession: Q1 2008 to Q3 2009

  39. Revisions to Growth • Preliminary to QNA growth • Last 26 periods • Average -0.01 p.p: not biased • Absolute average 0.12 p.p • 7 times unchanged;12 times by +/-0.1 p.p, 4 times by +/-0.2 p.p • Q4 2009 revised by 0.3 p.p • Q1 2009 revised by -0.5 p.p (Blue Book) • No benefit in delaying preliminary estimate from 25 days to 13 weeks