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Pandemic Flu and You. DJ Holcombe, MD, MSA, FACP JJ Naponick, MD, MPH Administrator/Medical Director Department of Health & Hospitals Office of Public Health Region 6. Topics of Discussion. Seasonal Influenza Avian Influenza Pandemic Influenza Impact & Planning Public Health Role
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Pandemic Flu and You DJ Holcombe, MD, MSA, FACP JJ Naponick, MD, MPH Administrator/Medical Director Department of Health & Hospitals Office of Public Health Region 6
Topics of Discussion • Seasonal Influenza • Avian Influenza • Pandemic Influenza • Impact & Planning • Public Health Role • Your Role • Resources
What is influenza (flu)? • mild to severe respiratory illness of sudden onset caused by an influenza virus • highly infectious-spreads rapidly from person to person • some strains more severe than others • occurs every year killing 36,000 people in U.S. and 550 in Louisiana
Symptoms of Influenza • sudden onset of symptoms • fever, headache, aching muscles, weakness • respiratory symptoms • cough, sore throat, difficulty breathing • incubation period = time from exposure to virus to development of symptoms • varies for influenza , but generally 1 to 4 days
How does influenza spread? • Breathing in droplets • produced when infected person talks/coughs/ sneezes • Touching an infected person or surface • contaminated with the virus and then touching your own or someone else’s face
Influenza A Virus Hemagglutinin (H)–16 subtypes(attachment, penetration) Hemagglutinin (H)–16 subtypes(attachment, penetration) Neuraminidase (NA)–9 subtypes(release) 8 viral genes(assembly, replication) M2 protein(penetration)
Antigenic Drift vs. Shift • Antigenic drift: major changes in the form of one or both of the two principle antigens on the viral surface • our immune system has greater difficulty recognizing them • Antigenic shift: radical changes in the form of the one or both of the two principle antigens on the viral surface • our immune system can’t recognize them at all
Avian (Bird) Influenza • An infection occurring naturally among birds caused by avian influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1 virus) • Birds • wild birds worldwide carry the virus – usually no illness • domesticated birds - can become ill and die • Humans • can become infected with avian influenza -> severe illness and death • most cases from close contact with infected poultry • very rarely may have spread from one person to another • cases/deaths since 2003 = 359/226 • 2003: 4/4 • 2004: 46/32 • 2005: 98/43 • 2006: 115/79 • 2007: 86/59 • 2008: 10/9
Will H5N1 become the next pandemic? • Avian Flu not yet Pandemic Flu • current outbreaks of H5N1 Avian Flu in poultry and birds are the largest ever documented • Impossible to predict next pandemic flu event • If not H5N1, then another • Plan now
Understanding Pandemic Flu • Epidemic: serious outbreak in a single community, population or region • Pandemic: an epidemic spreading around the world affecting hundreds of thousands of people, across many countries • Pandemic flu: a pandemic that results from an influenza virus strain that humans have not been previously exposed to
Putting Pandemic Flu into Perspective • 2001 terrorist attack with anthrax • killed five people • 2002 outbreak of West Nile Virus • killed 284 people nationally in six months • 2003 SARS outbreak • killed over 800 people world wide • froze Asian economies • frightened millions of people into wearing masks on the streets
History of Pandemic Influenza • 1968-1969 • Worldwide 700,000 deaths (34,000 in US) • 1957-1958 • Worldwide 1.5 million deaths (70,000 in US) • 1918 • Worldwide 40-50 million deaths (500,000–650,000 in US) • Typical Influenza Season • 36,000 deaths in US
Occurs unpredictably, not always in winter Variations in mortality, severity of illness and pattern of illness Rapid surge in number of cases over brief period of time, often measured in weeks Tend to occur in waves - subsequent waves may be more or less severe Lessons from Past Pandemics
Pandemic Flu: Current Status and Requirements • Currently no pandemic influenza in the world • For pandemic influenza to occur, three conditions must be met: • a new influenza A virus appears or “emerges” in the human population • it causes serious illness in people • it spreads easily from person to person worldwide
Current Status Interpandemic Pandemic alert Pandemic Phase 4 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Larger clusters, localized Limited spread among humans Phase 5 Phase 6 No new virus in humans Animal viruses low risk to humans No new virus in humans Animal viruses low risk to humans New virus in humans Little/no spread among humans Small clusters, localized Limited spread among humans Increased and sustained spread in general human population Current status of H5N1 Current H5N1 status WHO Global Influenza Preparedness Plan, 2005. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/influenza/GIP_2005_5Eweb.pdf
Estimated Impact in Louisiana 3 Million infected Between 600,000-1.4 million clinically ill Between 300K-700K requiring outpatient care Between 10,000 – 22,500 hospitalized Between 3,000 – 6,000 deaths Impact on Infrastructure Significant disruption of transportation, commerce, utilities, public safety and communications Limited to no assistance from State and Federal governments due to nation-wide impact Pandemic Influenza Impacts
Impact on Health Care • Illness rates will soar • Many people will require some medical care • Health care facilities will be overwhelmed • Symptoms may be severe • Complications: • may be more frequent • healthy people may be at increased risk
Impact on Business Owners Up to 40% employee absenteeism Possible increase/decrease in demand for products or services Disruption of communication & supply chains Fewer employees and customers Issues to Address Modification of: customer/employee interaction sick leave & work location Communication/education Collaboration Infection Control Impact on Business
Will there be a vaccine? • Because the virus will be new, there will be no vaccine ready to protect against pandemic flu • A specific vaccine cannot be made until the virus has been identified • Seasonal flu vaccine or past flu immunization will not provide protection
Medications During Pandemic Flu • Antiviral Medications • can prevent complications if taken within first 48 hours of illness • may not be effective against a pandemic flu virus • extremely limited supply now • would be prioritized • initial use probably only for treatment, not prophylaxis
Influenza Containment Strategy: Community Response • Basic Activities • Surveillance and quarantine of early cases • Public information and education • Promote “respiratory hygiene” and hand washing • Enhanced Activities • Focused measures to increase social distance • Community-wide measures to increase social distance
Isolation and Quarantine • isolate ill individuals with certain contagious diseases • quarantine contacts (those exposed to such contagious diseases) • play a role in the early stages of the pandemic • legal measures possible • probably would rely on voluntary cooperation • once beyond initial cases • “stay home when you are sick”
Influenza Prevention • Vaccination • Stay at home when sick • Cover your cough • Wash hands regularly • Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth • Avoid close contact with people who are sick
Infection Control - Our Basic Protection • Hand Hygiene • Wash hands regularly with soap & water • If no water available: 60%-95% alcohol-based sanitizer • Cover your cough strategy • Environmental cleaning • 1:10 bleach solution • EPA registered disinfectant • Gloves & surgical masks
Community Wide Measures • Reduce Social Contact by canceling large gatherings, mass transit, school • Decision based on location of flu activity: • Outbreak not local: large gatherings cancelled • Outbreak in local/neighboring county: small gatherings cancelled • School closings determined by • State Department of Health & Hospitals • Department of Education • Local School Boards.
