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Why US Chicken Exports Could reach 10 Billion Pounds by 2022 and be worth $7 Billion NCC Marketing Committee Meeting -

Why US Chicken Exports Could reach 10 Billion Pounds by 2022 and be worth $7 Billion NCC Marketing Committee Meeting - Vermont - 2012. Paul Aho Ph.D. - Poultry Perspective paulaho@paulaho.com Storrs, Connecticut USA.

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Why US Chicken Exports Could reach 10 Billion Pounds by 2022 and be worth $7 Billion NCC Marketing Committee Meeting -

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  1. Why US Chicken Exports Could reach 10 Billion Pounds by 2022 and be worth $7 Billion NCC Marketing Committee Meeting - Vermont - 2012 Paul Aho Ph.D. - Poultry Perspective paulaho@paulaho.com Storrs, Connecticut USA

  2. Per Capita Consumption of Meat & Eggs 7,000,000,000 people in 201244 Kg per capita 8,000,000,000 people in 202246 Kg per capita

  3. Meat and Poultry Per Capita Consumption Increase for Every % Increase in Per Capita Real Income1990’s - 2% 2000’s - 1% 2010’s - 0.5% Stagnant Consumption in Developed Countries & Headwinds of Higher Grain Prices

  4. ComparingBeef, Pork, ChickenFeedConversion + Growth Beef - 6 -1 Consumptionwilllagincome and populationgrowth Pork - 3 -1 Consumptionwilllagincome and populationgrowth Chicken - 1.7 -1 Consumptionwillexceedincome and populationgrowth

  5. 2012- 2022 Growth Total Meat and Eggs = 60 MMT Chicken = 30 MMT

  6. 46 Kg Consumption Per Capita in 2022 Source: USDA to 2012

  7. Ethanol Minus By-Product Percentage of the US Corn Crop

  8. Average Price of Corn in Chicago - $/Bushel by Crop Year

  9. Feed Cost Cents per Live Pound

  10. World Map Adjusted For Meat Consumption -2011

  11. 1 Billion More People on the Planetin the next 10 years Meat Consumption Per Capita will grow mostly in the Developing World

  12. World Map Adjusted For Middle Income

  13. Middle Income • China, India, Middle East, Latin America, Eastern Europe, parts of Africa • Income Elastic • Only area of Growth

  14. 75% of Global Growthwill Come From Asia, LatinAmerica and Africa

  15. 40% of Global ProductionGrowthwill Come in Asia • China the largest • As much more poultry as pork • Middle Class is growing

  16. Asia Chicken Production 2012 & 2022 - Millions of Tons

  17. 2012 -2022 Latin America • Accelerating economic growth • Political stability • The Golden age for Poultry • Financial stability

  18. Latin America Chicken Production 2010 & 2025 - Millions of Tons

  19. AfricaMay Be a Surprise • Increased Grain Production • Accelerating Economic Growth • Accelerating Meat Production

  20. Africa Chicken Production 2012 & 2022 - Millions of Tons

  21. World Trade in Chicken - MMT

  22. Exports - MMT 2012 & 2022

  23. Brazil 40 in 2002 90 in 2011 USA 70 in 2002 100 in 2011 Thailand 100 in 2002 110 in 2011 Live Production Cost in Cents per kilo The Three Major Exporters

  24. Higher Leg Quarter Prices • Recession Helped increase domestic demand • High Price of competing meats • Low price of the Dollar

  25. Leg Quarter Price Cents Per Pound

  26. Exporting More Deboned Breast From the US? • Prices now more competitive • Packaging and Marketing needed • Higher leg quarter prices make it possible • Brazil is less competitive than before

  27. DebonedBreast - Cents/lb2010 Dollars – US Wholesale Price

  28. Why Exports Could Reach 10 Billion Pounds & $7 Billion • Competitiveness of Chicken • Growth of the Middle Class • Leg quarters still a bargain even at 70 cents

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