The RAI 2 project: un integrated approach to manage chemical risk in industrial areas

1. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 The RAI2 project: un integrated approach to manage chemical risk in industrial areas Renato Rota Politecnico di Milano Dipartimento di Chimica dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica “G.Natta” (CMIC) Via Mancinelli 7, 20131 Milano, Tel. +39.02.2399.3154, E-mail: renato.rota@polimi.it Simona Caragliano Politecnico di Milano Dipartimento di Chimica dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica “G.Natta” (CMIC) Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano, Tel. +39.02.2399.3287, E-mail: simona.caragliano@chem.polimi.it Scira Menoni Politecnico di Milano Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione (DiAP) Via Bonardi 3, 20133 Milano, Tel. +39.02.2399.5457, E-mail: menoni@mail.polimi.it

2. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Goals • Sponsors: Politecnico of Milan • Field of research: • Chemical risk in industrial areas • Civil Protection and Individual and National Safety • Goals/Output: chemical-industrial riskanalysis and assessment (direct consequences and domino effects) depending on un integrated approach METHODOLOGY SOFTWARE

3. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Integrated approach • Consider complex urban systems: its physical, social and organizational factors when an hazard occurs • Risk/Damage/Hazard/Vulnerability • INTEGRATE DIFFERENT HAZARDS: industrial risks caused by technological accidents (chain of events inside a plant, interactions among neighbor industries, transport of dangerous substances) and natural hazards (Na-Tech) • Multi-risk approach: DAMAGES ESTIMATION (risk assessment related to different dangerous events affecting the same area or region) • DIRECT CONSEQUENCES AND DOMINO EFFECTS

4. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Structure of the project Activity 1. Software design and methodology planning Activity 2. Risk analysis for small and medium businesses Activity 3. Transport of dangerous substances assessment Activity 4. Metric to compare natural hazards with industrial hazards Activity 5. Evaluation of the source term Activity 6. Explosion prevention Activity 7. Advanced mathematical models to prevent major accidents Activity 8. Virtual training for emergency management (AVE - Laboratorio di Addestramento Virtuale alle Emergenze)

5. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Project advancing • A1. Software design and methodology planning • State of the art to asses chemical risk (software and methodology) • Software/leading product (ARIPAR-GIS with UNIBO) • Definition of possible additional units (Na-Tech – flood and emergency management) • Structure (input, processing and output) • A4. Metric to compare natural hazards with industrial hazards • State of the art (Na-Tech risk: existent methodology to compare different hazards) • Definition of risk parameters to compare and asses different hazards and damages

6. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Methodology Industrial risk assessment • Multi-risk approach: - Probabilistic risk assessment (complex risk) by means of the aggregationof single risks (quantitative evaluation = risk measures) • Probabilistic approach: QARA - Quantitative Risk Analysis in terms of frequency and consequences: • Quantitative hazard assessment (frequency); • Exposure (population distribution and vulnerability centers); • Damage assessment for people (Risk is: Individual, Local and Social Risk)

7. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Software INPUT INPUT INPUT ARIPAR RAI2 FLOOD UNIT RAI2 EMER UNIT OUTPUT OUTPUT OUTPUT UNIBO POLIMI SOFTWARE HOUSE

9. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO INPUT BORDERS LAND USE LIFELINES RESOURCES VULNERABILITY CENTERS PEOPLE RAI 2 Probabilistic methods Chemical Risk: Risk is a measure of human injury, environmental damage or economic loss in terms of both the incident likelihood and the magnitude of the losses or injuries. OUTPUT RL RI RS WORK IN PROGRESS… Seismic Risk UNIBO … V P Landslide Risk Flood Risk POLIMI Emergency Management POLIMI ARIPAR

10. Flood Unit/Emergency Unit RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 How to integrate different units: • Flood risk assessment on the basis of a QARA approach (Quantitative Risk Analysis) • Integration of new input (respect to QARA) to define a support to manage an emergency at local level (caused by a flood or a chemical accident): material and human resources • Industrial-flood/flood-industrial risk assessment by means of the aggregationof single risks (quantitative evaluation = risk measures, but also not totally quantitative…) Industrial risk assessment Industrial-Flood risk assessment Emergency Management Flood risk assessment

11. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Output for Emergency Management Unit • INTERNAL EFFETCS • (plant) • substance involved • substance effects for people • substance effects for natural • environment • operators exposed • (localization and production) • contiguous plants • lifelines involved • use of emergency areas • localization of internal rescue • resources • EXTERNAL EFFECTS • (urban district) • substance involved • substance effects for people • substance effects for natural • environment • population exposed • buildings exposed • lifelines exposed and • functionally involved • material resources • human resources

12. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Work in progress: some results… Aim/Objective: • Compare risks by using a probabilistic approach with the aim to define criteria for the implementation of preventive measures • Using a quantitative approach to define specific risk and considering a qualitative or not completely quantitative approach to integrate different risks • Determination of Local, Individual and Social Risk (damages for people) by means of different unit of measurement (dead/year; injured/year; euros/year; …) • Determination of direct and domino effects to people

13. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Difficulties/Troubles: • QARA approach considers hazards only in respect to the frequency (P = probability of occurrence); but it need, specially in a multi-risk approach, to consider hazard in terms of: • kind of phenomena (F, type); • intensity (I); • coordinates, localization (L). • Urban Vulnerability is considered as a quantity (distribution) of exposed people, properties, ... Neither systemic vulnerability (physical and functional interconnections) nor social vulnerability (organizational and of perception) are considered as elements that contribute to the risk situation. These are basic components to asses domino effects…

14. RISCHIO IN AREE INDUSTRIALI: UN APPROCCIO INTEGRATO RAI 2 Difficulties/Troubles: • QARA approach applied to industrial risk considers human losses and harms. It needs to define other effects (not only physical for people…) to organize the emergency and preventive activities: • physical and systemic damages for building and lifelines; • socio-organizational needs (operational): material and human resources. • A quantitative approach is acceptable to assess single risks (QARA approach), nevertheless it needs to consider other approaches to integrate flood and industrial risk as a different level of risk: it is difficult to compare hazards by means of similar/commune unit of measurement when they don’t lend oneself.