U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Hydrologic Component Glenn E. Moglen University of Maryland November 12, 2002
Outline • Spatially Explicit Land Use Modeling • Peak Flow Modeling • TR-20/TR-55 • Continuous Streamflow Modeling • Regression Approach? • Low Flow Modeling • Continuous Streamflow Modeling • Regression Approach • Items in “Flux” • Water Quality Modeling • Stream Gaging • Can you spell “I-C-C”?
Tracking Land Use Change In Time AND Space… • Reference: Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.
Land Use Change Animation • Northwest Branch Watershed: 1938 - 2000. • Based on methods presented in Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002 If you would like to see this again… http://www.ence.umd.edu/~moglen/WWproject.html
Peak Flow Modeling • TR-55: “Graphical Method” (see Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.
Peak Flow Modeling • For larger watersheds where channel processes or reservoirs add significant delays or attenuation of flood we use composite of TR-55 and TR-20 simulations: From Sources to first downstream point TR-20 point: In between TR-20 simulated points:
Continuous Streamflow Modeling: A “Simple” Model • Storages • Fluxes • Issues • Implications
A Different Approach – Evolution of annual 7-day low flow event • Regression Approach – Low Flows in NWB Q7 (m3/s) Year
Items In Flux: Water Quality Modeling • Not much progress to date…Focus of Years 3 & 4 of WWS project • Existing Models • HSPF • SWMM • Conceptual/Simple Model • Need to model land use change Dynamically
Items in Flux: Stream Gaging Activities… • Installed 5 gages of our own across all study watersheds, scales, & land uses. • Have access to data from 3 USGS stream gages at outlets of study watersheds. • Have access to data from 2 Montgomery County stream gages.
Items in Flux: The Inter-County Connector and our Watersheds… ICC Northwest Branch Paint Branch
Summary / Future Directions • Issues addressed or with clear approach: • Land use change modeling • Peak flow modeling • Continuous streamflow modeling • Low Flow Modeling • Issues in “Flux” • Water Quality Modeling • Stream Gaging • ICC as a “wildcard”