1. Climate Change Impacts in the United States This section is mainly from: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press, 2009.

2. General National Impacts

3. Key National Climate Impacts • U.S. average temperature has risen more than 2° F over the past 50 years and is projected to rise more in the future; how much more depends on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted globally and how sensitive the climate is to those emissions. • Precipitation has increased an average of about 5% over the past 50 years. Projections of future precipitation generally indicate that northern areas will become wetter, and southern areas, particularly in the West, will become drier. • The amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased about 20% on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places. • Many types of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and regional droughts, have become more frequent and intense during the past 40 to 50 years. • The destructive energy of Atlantic hurricanes has increased in recent decades. The intensity of these storms is likely to increase in this century. • In the eastern Pacific, the strongest hurricanes have become stronger since the 1980s, even while the total number of storms has decreased. • Sea level has risen along most of the U.S. coast over the last 50 years, and will continue to rise in the future. • Cold-season storms tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent. • Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly and this will continue.

10. Temperature Change between 1993-2008 (left), and projected near term between 2010-2029 (right)

11. Projected U.S. Temperature Increase (2040-2060)

12. Projected temperature increases between 2040-2059 and 2080-2099 for higher emissions scenario (top) and lower emissions scenario (bottom)

15. U.S. Rainfall Anomaly Jan.-August 2007

20. Increases in Amounts of Very Heavy Precipitation (1958-2007)

21. Change in Hadley Cell Circulation Could Decrease Winter and Spring Precipitation in the Southwest • The Hadley Effect: The Hadley Cell circulation illustrates how rising air in the superheated tropics descends in the subtropics. This creates high-pressure zones in subtropical regions, including the U.S. Southwest. • The area under the Hadley cell’s descending air is projected to widen in years to come. As a result, the jet stream that transports rain and snow during spring and winter is expected to move toward the North pole. Thus winter storms could enter the western United States in a more northerly position, bypassing the Southwest more often than it currently does.

22. 43% of U.S. in Drought Conditions in Oct. 2007

23. Fires Are Increasing World-Wide Wildfires in Western U.S. have increased 4-fold in 30 years. Western US area burned Source: Westerling et al. 2006

25. Water Resources

26. Key Water Resource Impacts • Climate change has already altered, and will continue to alter, the water cycle, affecting where, when and how much water is available for all uses. • Floods and droughts are likely to become more common and more intense as regional and seasonal precipitation patterns change, and rainfall becomes more concentrated into heavy events (with longer, hotter dry periods in between). • Precipitation and runoff are likely to increase in the Northeast and Midwest in winter and spring, and decrease in the West especially the Southwest, in the spring and summer. • In areas where snowpack dominates, the timing of runoff will continue to shift to earlier in the spring and flows will be lower in late summer. • Surface water quality and groundwater quantity will be affected by a changing climate. • Climate change will place additional burdens on already stressed water systems. • The past century is no longer a reasonable guide to the future for water management.

28. Observed Water-Related Changes During the Last Century

30. The Southwest Will Have Less Precipitation • Using an "ensemble" of 18 global climate models and the moderate "A1B" emissions scenario, researchers at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) predict a reduction in precipitation across the Southwest by the end of the century. • Credit: Map produced by Jeremy Weiss of the University of Arizona, using data from Hoerling and Eischeid of NOAA ESRL. http://www.noaa.gov/

31. Drought on the Southwest, U.S.

32. Increases in Amounts of Very Heavy Precipitation (1958-2007)

34. Trends in Peak Streamflow Timing

35. Potential Water Supply Conflicts by 2025

37. Highlights of Water-related Impacts by Sector

38. Energy Supply and Use

39. Key Energy Supply and Use Impacts • Warming will be accompanied decreases in demand for heating energy and increases in demand for cooling energy. The later will result in significant increases in electricity use and higher peak demand in most regions. • Energy production is likely to be constrained by rising temperatures and limited water supplies in many regions. • Energy production and delivery systems are exposed to disruption by sea level rise and extreme weather events in vulnerable regions. • Climate change is likely to affect some renewable energy sources across the nation, such as hydroelectric power production in regions subject to changing patterns of precipitation or snowmelt.

40. Sources of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2003)

41. Primary Energy Consumption by Major Source (1949-2007)

42. U. S. Electricity Sources (2007)

43. Population Change (1970-2008)

44. Shifting Energy Demand in the U. S. by 2080-2099.

45. Significant Weather-related U.S. Electric Grid Disturbances

46. Transportation

47. Key Transportation Impacts • Sea level rise and storm surge will increase the risk of major coastal impacts, including both temporary and permanent flooding of airports, roads, rail lines, and tunnels. • Flooding from increasingly intense downpours will increase the risk of disruptions and delays in air, rail and road transportation, and damage from mudslides in some areas. • The increase in extreme heat will limit some transportation operations and cause pavement and track damage. Decreased extreme cold will provide some benefits such as reduced snow and ice removal costs in some areas. • Increased intensity of strong hurricanes would lead to more evacuations, infrastructure damage and failure, and transportations disruptions. • Arctic warming will continue to reduce sea ice, lengthening the ocean transport season, but also resulting in greater coastal erosion due to waves. Permafrost thaw in Alaska will damage infrastructure. The ice road season will become shorter.

49. Agriculture

50. Key Agriculture Impacts • Many crops show positive responses to elevated CO2 and low levels of warming, but higher levels of warming often negatively affect growth and yields. • Extreme events such as heavy downpours and droughts are likely to reduce crop yields because excesses or deficits of water have negative impacts on plant growth. • Weeds, diseases, and insect pests benefit from warming, and weeds also benefit from a higher CO2 concentrations, increasing stress on crop plants and requiring more attention to pest and weed control. • Forage quality in pastures and rangelands generally declines with increasing CO2 concentration because of the effects on plant nitrogen and protein content, reducing the land’s ability to supply adequate livestock feed. • Increased heat, disease, and weather extremes are likely to reduce livestock and agricultural productivity.