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The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity

The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity. Phil Rees QMSS2 Summer School Projection Methods for Ethnicity and Immigration Status 2-9 July 2009 School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK. Outline of topics. Internal migration: definitions and sources

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The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity

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  1. The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity Phil Rees QMSS2 Summer School Projection Methods for Ethnicity and Immigration Status 2-9 July 2009 School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK

  2. Outline of topics • Internal migration: definitions and sources • The evidence for ethnic differences in internal migration • Raymer and Giullieti • Hussein, Stillwell and Norman • Framework for estimation of internal migration • Available data sets • The exercise for the afternoon

  3. What is internal migration? • Internal migration is the change of residence within a country • Both origin and destination residence is within the same country • The changes of residence are usually aggregated into origin-destination tables • Origins and destination zones are usually based on the administrative hierarchy of the country (e.g. ward  municipalitycountyregion; LAU1LAU2NUTS3NUTS2NUTS1) • For the purposes of population projection, you normally ignore intra-zone migration

  4. What are the important interactions? Evidence from the literature • Work of Raymer and co-authors establishes that OD patterns differ between ethnic groups • But only five ethnic groups • Work of Hussein and Stillwell show that the ethnic groups differ in net migration patterns • But only seven ethnic groups

  5. Hussain & Stillwell: net migration results

  6. Table 1: Portion of an internal migration matrix, 2001 Census Census data are transitions over one year, 2000-1

  7. Table 2: Part of a Patient Register Data System PRDS matrix,2006-7 PRDS migration data are transitions adjusted to agree with NHSCR migration data which are moves

  8. NHSCR data for UK NUTS1 regions , 2006-7

  9. Migration schedule by single years of age (2001 Census)

  10. Problem: how to use this information to produce a consistent estimate? • Definitions of dimensions • O = origins (352 LAs in E, 22 in Wales, Scot + N Ire) • D = destinations (ditto) • E = ethnic groups (16 in 2001 Census) • A = ages (0 … 100 for projection model) • S = sexes (men, women) • T = time intervals (my: 2000-1 to 2007-8) • One solution: ODE + AS + T • Use the origin-destination structures by age multiplied by age-sex probabilities for all migrants multiplied by time series factors • Can we do better than this?

  11. Exercise • Aim: to help me to develop a feasible model for estimating internal migration by ethnicity that captures the main effects but is not too complex • Read and report on the set of papers • Raymer 2008 RMF • Raymer 2008 EAPS • Raymer and Giulietti 2009 • Stillwell and Hussein 2008 • Hussein and Stillwell 2008 • Stillwell, Hussein and Norman 2008 • Design a possible solution

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