Biodiversity and socio-economic impacts of trade-oriented agro-commodity production systems

1. www.aidenvironment.org Biodiversity and socio-economic impacts of trade-oriented agro-commodity production systems UNEP 28 November 2007 Jan Joost Kessler AIDEnvironment kessler@aidenvironment.org

2. Objectives of the study • To assess the biodiversity and socio-economic impacts of the Dutch / EU trade and consumption of certain agro-commodities • To develop a suitable methodology to do so • Focus at agro-commodities for which NL is important consumer and the most important producer countries: • soy (in Argentina and Brazil) • palm oil (in Indonesia and Malaysia) • beef (in Argentina and Brazil) • coffee (in Honduras and Vietnam)

3. Assessment of biodiversity impacts • Selection of administrative units in countries where production is concentrated • Insight in production systems • Data on land-use dynamics / expansion for agro-commodities in recent 5-8 years (= study period) • Calculation of 5 indicators based on concept of Natural Capital Index

4. Natural Capital Index = quantity x quality

5. pristine forest 100% selective logging secondary vegetation 50% plantation degraded 0% The decline of NCI as land-use intensifies Biodiversity ( NCI) • Literature review • Tropical & temperate regions • Plants, insects, birds, other vertebrates

6. Reference data on NCI decline for land-use

7. Biodiversity indicators used in study

8. Example of results for soy in Brazil

9. Biodiversity loss from soy in Brazil and Argentina before 1995 (yellow) and between 1995-2004 (red)

10. Some conclusions • B0: Expansion of selected commodities in selected production areas during study period was 28 m ha, and about 67 m ha in the countries. • B1: Soy showed the highest growth factors (80-90%). Low growth factors occur in established region. Growth factors are highest in frontier regions. • B2: In expansion and frontier areas NCI is often higher than the national average. • B3: NCI loss by commodity is generally not high (1-5%), because areas are large. • B4: The contribution from commodity production during the study period to overall biodiversity loss by land-use may be more than 10%. • B5: reflects the ecological impacts in terms of area with 100% NCI loss, which may be quite high. Corrected for multiplier effects. • Total biodiversity loss caused by the commodities in selected areas in the study period corresponds to 154,000 km² (= four times the Netherlands). • Multiplier effects are macro-level changes due to the agro-commodity, e.g. displacement of people or expansion as a result of food competition.

11. Assessment of socio-economic impacts

12. Assessment of socio-economic impacts

13. Main conclusions • Considerable loss of NCI by agro-commodities, mainly in expansion and frontier areas, can be roughly quantified by using NCI and reference data • Loss of NCI by production and trade of agro-commodities is not, or not sufficiently compensated by improvement of socio-economic well-being, especially in frontier areas • The methodology allows one to assess these changes at sub-national level, especially for selected areas where statistics are available – assessments at national level would not be useful • Major risks now with expansion of biofuels (e.g. palmoil) • Doubts about theory of export-oriented growth?

14. Thank you