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September 2, 2014

September 2, 2014. Israel’s Security Challenges. Israel: History & Background. 1900 BC – Abraham 1300 BC – Outbreak of slavery in Egypt, Settlement in the promised land 1000 BC – The Kingdom of Israel 722 BC – Fall of The Kingdom of Israel

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September 2, 2014

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  1. September 2, 2014 Israel’s Security Challenges

  2. Israel: History & Background • 1900 BC – Abraham • 1300 BC – Outbreak of slavery in Egypt, Settlement in the promised land • 1000 BC – The Kingdom of Israel • 722 BC – Fall of The Kingdom of Israel • 586 BC – Fall of The Kingdom of Judea, destruction of Jerusalem and Temple I • 70 AD – Jerusalem conquered by the Romans, destruction of Temple II ANCIENT ISRAEL Birth of Christianity Birth of Islam • 1882 – First Aliya (large-scale immigration back to The Land of Israel) • 1897 – The first Zionist Congress • 1917 – Balfour Declaration EXILE Synagogues built to face Jerusalem

  3. Israel: History & Background THE STATE OF ISRAEL • 1947 – UN Resolution 181 - Arab and Jewish states , War of Independence • 1948 – Foundation of Israel, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) • 1950’s - Terror attacks from Egypt & Jordan, Syrian shooting from Golan • 1967 – Six-Day War, Jerusalem reunited • 1973 – Yom Kippur War • 1982 – Operation Peace for Galilee • 2000 – Withdrawal from Lebanon • 2005 – Evacuation from the Gaza Strip • 2006 – Second Lebanon War • 2009 – Operation “Cast Lead”

  4. Middle East: Area and Population Egypt 1,000,000 km2 80.5 million Iran 1,648,000 km2 67 million Iraq 437,000 km2 29.7 million Syria 185,000 km2 22.2 million Lebanon 10,400 km2 4.1 million Jordan 89,342 km2 6.4 million Israel 21,000 km2 7.6 million Area Population

  5. Geo-Strategic Characteristics Lack of Strategic Depth Population Concentration in Coastal Area 13.8km Proximity to Threat Sources Israeli Borders Egypt 206 km Jordan 507 km Lebanon 112 km Gaza Strip 59 km Syria 79km

  6. Threats and Dangers Iraq Syria Terror threats Key Iranian ally Sponsor of terror Subversive in Lebanon Lebanon Hizbullah as dominant force Iranian proxy Qualitative and quantitative force buildup Recognized political role Iran Leader of radical camp Nuclear development Hegemonic aspirations Support of proxies Israel Palestinian Arena Global Jihad Hamas-PA tension Force buildup “Ticking bomb” Ongoing hostilities Increased international cooperation Approaching Israeli borders

  7. Israeli Security Challenges Iran

  8. The Zionist regime faces a complete dead-end…the corrupt element will be wiped off the map… The world must know that the Zionists are to be gone. • Mahmoud Ahmadinejad • President of the Islamic Republic of Iran • Islamic Republic News Agency, (1/6/08) • During a visit in Southern Lebanon (14/10/10)

  9. Nuclear Timeframe Iranian Focus Increased Iranian rhetoric Iranian ”Time Buying” Busha’ar • Program expansion (Qom, planned construction, 20% enrichment) • Weaponization • Attack survivability • Decentralization • Tunneling • Air Defense Emerging “Breakout” Capability Earliest: Late 2010 More likely: 2011-2012+

  10. Implications of a Nuclear Iran • Destabilization of moderate regimes • Long-range capabilities (EU) • USA standing in Gulf • Implications for energy security • Regional domino effect • Danger to US and international forces • Nuclear umbrella for Syria, Hizbullah and Hamas • Nexus between WMD and terror Terror Promotion Political-Strategic Military-Strategic Potential existential threat to Israel

  11. Iranian SSM Ranges Evolving SSM Trends • Improved accuracy • Damage enhancement • Increased production • Increased range • Silo-based development

  12. Role as Leader of Radical Camp Iran seeks to destabilize the regional environment, supporting radical states as well as proxies operating within failed states Massive Arms Transfers Qualitative & Quantitative Funding Training Ideological Guidance Proxies play a vital role in diverting international attention from Iranian nuclear program

  13. Ahmadinejad Visit to Southern Lebanon Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, arrived in Beirut for his first official visit in Lebanon (Oct. 13, 2010). Ahmadinejad visited a couple of villages in Southern Lebanon signaling his outward support of Hizbullah and his attempt to strengthen Iran’s influence in Lebanon. Hizbullah Supporters Await the Iranian President

  14. Israeli Security Challenges Syria

  15. Resistance…was and is the essence of our policy, and it will continue to be so in the future. It is the essence of our very existence • Bashar al-Assad • President of Syria • 12/11/09, Syrrian Arab News Agency Syrian Weapons Found in Lebanon

  16. Dualistic International Approach Western Engagement Radical Conduct Increased ties with Iran Destabilization and intervention in Lebanon Massive weapon transfers Increasingly threatening rhetoric Hosts radical Palestinian organizations Claimed willingness for peace US and European engagement

  17. Israeli Security Challenges Lebanon

  18. We shall not surrender, we shall not come to terms with Israel…and we will continue to believe and proclaim that Israel…must be erased from existence • Hassan Nasrallah • Hizbullah Secretary-General • 18/09/09, Sid el-Sha’ad Center in Beirut

  19. Hizbullah Military Smuggling Infrastructure Personnel Arsenal Training Drills Hizbullah is an illegal armed terrorist organization which consistently contradicts international resolutions (UNSCR 1701, 1559) and undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty while functioning as an Iranian proxy and endangering the local civilian population Political Blocking Third Part of the government Tacit cooperation with LAF Social Indoctrination Socio-economic activities

  20. Hizbullah’s Deepening Military Presence within the population Hizbullah’s military assets are deployed within populated areas throughout Lebanon, as part of its strategy, doctrine and preparation for war. Hizbullah’s Deployment in Southern Lebanon 5,000 Activists ≈30,000 Rockets Command Each village military compound contains dozens of activists and hundreds of rockets Unit Sector Village Massive long-range strike Targeting mostly Israeli population centers Territorial defense of the launching units Concept of Operation

  21. El-Khiam Case Study

  22. El-Khiam – Information Population: 22,930 Distance from Blue Line: 4 km Range of rockets: 20km Shi’ite village surrounded by Sunni, Druze and Christian villages. Extensive Hezbollah activity prior to and during Second Lebanon War Active Hezbollah arena between 2000 and 2006, with IEDs, a UAV launch, abductions and more. LAF presence (20 tanks, 7 cannons, 50 APCs) failed to respond to events (crossing of Blue Line – 7/09, AT team in mosque – 4/10). El-Khiam Neve Atib Metula Kirya’at Shemona SSR in Second Lebanon War

  23. Weapons in El-Khiam Village Activists Approximately 90, including special forces Artillery ≈600 8km range mortar shells FAGOT AT Rockets ≈200 40km SSRs Engineers Explosive pits, IEDs, Claymore & shrapnel RPG29 (AT) Anti-Tank AT-14, AT-5, AT-4 and TOW missiles Intelligence 5 OPs + emergency monitoring center IEDs Hidden in Crates Weapon Storage Facilities 22 locations within residential areas and in the vicinity ofthe mosque, the school and medical institutes.

  24. Bunker Weapon Storage Facility (22) Headquarters (13) C2 Observation Post (2) School UNIFIL position U Hospital H Mosque El-Khiam – Arms Deployment 1 457m 2 Mizra’at Sarda 250m

  25. Bunker Weapon Storage Facility (22) Headquarters (13) C2 Observation Post (2) School UNIFIL position U Hospital H Mosque El-Khiam - City Center

  26. Hizbullah’s Deepening Military Presence within the population For the third time in a little more than a year, a Hizbullah arms depot hidden within the local population exploded on September 3rd. UNIFIL and LAF failed to gain access to the site or seal it off and Hizbullah operatives removed weapons from the building, transferring them to nearby villages and to a village south of the Litani River.

  27. Civilian Shield Khirbat Salim Tayr Falsi Marwaheen 14/17/09 Depot in town center containing 122mm rockets, 155mm rockets, mortars and more detonates 23/8/09 Local civilians forcibly eject Hizbullah operatives attempting to establish operations in town 12/10/09 Arms depot detonates. Weapons are removed and transferred to nearby village 2006 2010 Inhabited Environment CMZ (Closed Military Zones)

  28. Hizbullah Weapons THE ZILZAL C802 COASTAL MISSILE THE IRANIAN-MADE ABABIL UAV 220M ROCKET LAUNCHER SAGGER ATGM MISSILES Massive arsenal combined with advanced weapons, over 40,000 rockets, coastal missiles, UAVs and more. 122mm Grad (25km / 15 mil) 240mm Fajr 3 (50km / 30 mil) Fajr 5 (75km / 45 mil) M-600 (300km / 185 mil) Scud-D (600km / 375 mil)

  29. Lebanese Armed Forces In recent months the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has become more provocative toward Israel in its statements and actions. There has been rock throwing toward the Israeli side of the Blue Line with LAF standing by silently as well as instances of LAF soldiers pointing arms at IDF soldiers. LAF provocations against Israel peaked on August 3rd when LAF forces killed an IDF officer and injured another while IDF forces performed routine engineer work in what was unequivocally Israeli territory. RPGs were also fired at an IDF tank.

  30. UNIFIL and the Int. Community UNIFIL and the international community’s involvement is critical in order to prevent further Hizbullah entrenchment Determined action must be taken against Hizbullah and arms transfers, particularly in the village environment Need for more independent and proactive UNIFIL discharge of its mandate in Southern Lebanon: prevent illegal arms in AOR, protect population. Legitimization of Hizbullah must be avoided UNDERGROUND HIZBULLAH CONSTRUCTION IN SOUTHERN LEBANON

  31. Israeli Security Challenges The Palestinian Arena

  32. The Palestinian Arena PA: West Bank: Direct negotiations Increased Hamas terrorist attacks Civil, economic and security growth Hamas: Gaza Strip Continued focus on force buildup Refusal to international conditions Ongoing humanitarian support Gilad Shalit

  33. The West Bank Measured growth and strengthening of the PA and local quality of life as a result of Israeli, PA, and international efforts to implement security, economic, civil and security improvements. Continues despite entailed security risks. Security Transportation Civil & Economic Independent 24/7 operations in 5 cities 6th PSF Battalion training 28 police stations opened 52 police stations operating in peripheral towns and villages. Increased cooperation 27 checkpoints removed 16 checkpoints remain all regularly open; Checkpoints improved 357 roadblocks removed (60 since the beginning of the year) Opening road #443 for Palestinian traffic 2009-10: 38 roads improved Electric and water infrastructure improved Hundreds of VIP cards issued 30,000 permits for work in Israel granted Rise of 12% in permits issued for Palestinian patients receiving medical treatment in Israel. Unemployment Decline West Bank Trade Growth Consumer Price Index Increase Palestinian Imports GDP Increase 2.75% 7% 6.7% 600% 3%

  34. All of Palestine is our land, and it is occupied. It must return to its owners…resistance is our strategic option for liberating our land…” • Khaled Mashal • Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau • 9/10/09 , Al-Aqsa Television

  35. The Gaza Strip Context 2010 2009 2006 2005 2007 2008 Increased deterrence Operation in Gaza Hamas Coup State of Calm PA Elections Shalit Kidnapped Unilateral Disengagement

  36. Gaza Strip Today Advanced massive weapon buildup Updated humanitarian policy Erez Refusal of international community’s terms Nahal Oz Karni Sporadic attacks Smuggling economy Kerem Shalom

  37. Hamas Arms Buildup Gazan Qassam Rocket Tel Aviv-Jaffa 122mm Grad (Prob. Iranian) Rocket based on Iranian Tech. Rishon LeZiyon Iranian-based Rocket Rehovot Chinese 122mm Rocket Ashdod Jerusalem Fajr-5 (Hamas Goal) Jerusalem Area Ashkelon Gaza Sderot Gaza Strip Han Yunis Rafah Beer Sheva Military Buildup With Iranian and Syrian support, massive smuggling to the Gaza Strip takes place. This includes anti-tank missiles, missiles which can reach as far as Tel-Aviv, IED and more. Human Shield Hamas knowingly exploits the local population as a civilian shield, using it for arms depots, arms-production centers, storage and tunnels.

  38. Humanitarian Assistance Israel’s policy towards the Gaza Strip balancing civilian needs with security considerations Entry – without restriction – of all goods excluding weapons and war material Transfer of dual-use goods under international supervision Streamlining of entry and continued activity as Ashdod port Summary of Aid Transferred in 2009 Supply Trucks Medical Escorts 30,920 12,305 Supplies (Tons) International Humanitarian Personnel 738,576 21,200 Patients Treated in Israel Trucks of Supplies for Infrastructure 10,544 184

  39. The Flotilla Campaign In recent months, numerous campaigns to send flotillas to the Gaza Strip have gone underway, despite the updated Israeli policy. The self-admitted purpose of the flotillas are not to bring aid but to break the Israeli security restrictions vital to prevent ongoing Hamas military buildup. Israel shall uphold the maritime blockade on Gaza in order to prevent it from becoming an Iranian terror stronghold. The May 31st Flotilla The Mavi Marmara A six boat flotilla arrived in the area on May 31st. After exhausting every possible diplomatic measure, including offer to transfer the goods independently, the IDF boarded the boats, in line with International Law. The boats were redirected to Port Ashdod, the individuals were deported and the goods were transferred. On one boat, activists planned a violent response, arming themselves with knives, bars, flack jackets and more. After they attacked the IDF soldiers, the soldiers were forced to respond in self-defense, killing 9 and wounding 34. In the meantime, humanitarian support can be delivered via the Ashdod Port or through Egypt.

  40. Israeli Security Challenges Israel: The Qualitative Edge Israel was established on the basis of UNSCR 181 (Nov. 1947) Democracy Qualitative Manpower 7,587,000 Population: Technology Robust Economy $28,400 GDP:

  41. The Land of Israel was the birthplace of the Jewish people. Here their spiritual, religious and political identity was shaped. Here they first attained statehood, created cultural values of national and universal significance and gave to the world the eternal Book of Books. […] Impelled by this historic and traditional attachment, Jews strove in every successive generation to reestablish themselves in their ancient homeland…they made deserts bloom, revived the Hebrew language, built villages and towns, and created a thriving community, controlling its own community and culture, loving peace but knowing how to defend itself. […] The State of Israel will foster the development of the country for the benefit of its inhabitants; it will be based on freedom, justice and peace as envisioned by the prophets of Israel; it will ensure complete equality of social and political rights to all its inhabitants irrespective of religion, race or sex; it will guarantee freedom of religion, conscience, language education and culture. […] We extend our hand to all neighboring states and their peoples in an offer of peace and good neighborliness, and appeal to them to establish bonds of cooperation and mutual help with the sovereign Jewish people settled in its own land. The Declaration of Independence 14/05/48

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