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Risk Management

Risk Management. The future can never be predicted with 100% accuracy. Failure to plan for risks leads crisis management or firefighting The lure of crisis management Attention and visibility Access to resources Rewards. What is a Risk?.

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Risk Management

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  1. Risk Management • The future can never be predicted with 100% accuracy. • Failure to plan for risks leads crisis management or firefighting • The lure of crisis management • Attention and visibility • Access to resources • Rewards Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  2. What is a Risk? • Risk is a measure of the probability and consequence of not achieving a defined project goal. • A probability of occurrence of that event. • Impact of the event occurring • Risks change though out the life of a project Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  3. Risk Management • Risk management is the act or practice of dealing with risk. • Risk management is proactive rather than reactive. • Risk management is not a separate activity but rather on aspect of sound project management. Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  4. Common Mistakes in Risk Management • Not understanding the benefits of Risk Management • Not providing adequate time or resources for Risk Management • Not identifying and assessing risk using a standardized approach Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  5. Requirements for successful risk management • Commitment by stakeholders • Stakeholder responsibility • Planning for risk management • Creation of a risk management plan • Committing resources to risk management • Top 10 risk list • Determine a manageable number of risks Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  6. Resources for Risk Management • When looking at the resources to commit to risk management, one needs to consider the overall project size and the impacts of the risks. • The Survival Guide recommends about 5% of the total project resources on specific risk management activities. Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  7. Risk Management Planning • Risk management planning is a on going process. • Develop a plan for risk identification. • Determine the resources available for risks. • What is available beyond the ordinary? • This is a good time for out of the box thinking Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  8. Simplified Risk Management Process • Risk identification • Risk analysis/evaluation • Risk planning strategies • Risk monitoring and control • Risk response Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  9. Risk Identification • The need to proactively identify risks. • When an event happens it is too late to plan. • Tools for identifying risk • Brainstorming • Nominal Group Technique • Each member identifies their ideas • Each member writes an idea on the board until all ideas are listed Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  10. Risk Identification • The group discusses each idea • Each individual ranks each of the ideas • The group then ranks all the ideas • Each individual ranks all the ideas again • Rankings are summarized • Delphi technique • Experts asked individually to provide input • Input summarized and distributed • Experts rank input Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  11. Risk Identification • Strength, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats • Cause and effect diagrams • Past Projects Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  12. Possible Risks • Creeping user requirements • Excessive schedule pressure • Low quality • Cost overruns • Poor estimates • Low customer satisfaction • Long schedules Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  13. Qualitative Risk Analysis • Probability and Impact • Impacts a Software Project Manager is most likely to face: • Costs • Schedule • Quality • Probability is most often determined by expert opinion and historical data Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  14. Qualitative Analysis • Cause and Effect Diagrams • Risk Impact Tables Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  15. Quantitative Risk Analysis • Discrete probability distributions • Coin toss • Continuous probability distributions • Normal distribution or bell shaped curve • Running simulations • Using PERT to study the impact. • PERT does identify risks it only helps understand the impact Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  16. Risk Response Planning • Who is going to detect when the risk occurs? • Who has the responsibility to respond and communicate? • What is the response? Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  17. Risk Strategies • Factors impacting the strategy • Impact of the risk • Project constraints • Tolerances • Strategy • Accept or Ignore • Provide reserves • Contingency plans • Natural disaster/backup plans Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  18. Risk Strategies • Avoidance, eliminate the risk • Mitigate, lessen the impact of the risk • Performance impact, provide extra hardware • Transfer the risk • Offsite backup planning • Server farms • Outside management Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  19. Risk Monitoring and Control • Risk monitoring • Determine who is responsible for monitoring • How are risks monitored? • Project tracking, resources, quality, etc • Communicating the status of identified risks • Reviews and Audits • Once a risk is identified as occurring • Communicate • Take action Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  20. Risk Response and Evaluation • Trigger the defined risk response plan • Identify the risk owner • Assign resources • Understand the impacts • PERTs, Dependencies • Communicate • Evaluate once action is taken • Is more action needed? • What additional risks are triggered? Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  21. Common Software Project Risks • Discussion of common risks • Requirements: • Feature creep • Developer gold plating • Quality • Low quality • Squeeze on testing time • Over optimism • Schedules • Tools Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

  22. Common Software Project Risks • Resources • Not enough • Weak personnel • Contractor issues • Customer • Customer developer friction • Customer acceptance Computer Engineering 203 R Smith Risk Management 7/2009

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