Thomas FreyExecutive Director DaVinci Institute PO Box 270315 Louisville, CO 80027 (303) 666-4133 email@example.com
End of an Era End of Era Beginning of a New Era Maximum Freud
Maximum Freud • A time when we’ll spend the most time on a couch talking to our shrink • Tremendous opportunity • Major chaos
Approaching Maximum Freud • Fax Machines • Checking Industry • Space Shuttle • Sign Language • Traditional Television • Invasive Surgery • Regular AM-FM Radio • “Drill-n-Fill” Dentistry
The End of Wires • Home Telephone Lines • Cable Television Lines • Power Lines
Question • What does wireless money look like?
Trends in Innovation • The Age of 100 Million Products • Amazon – 1 million books • Software Superstore – 1 million programs • iTunes – 700K songs • One new grocery store products introduced every 30 minutes • Domain Names • Google keywords
Trends in Innovation • Patent Filings Reach All-Time High • 2004 – 376,810 patents filed • 2004 – 187,170 patents granted • Backlog of 580,000 • 27 month average wait
Trends in Innovation • The Next Big Thing was Invented Over 25 Years Ago • The Internet is 35 years old • Cell phone invented in 1973 • Breakthrough technologies take at least a generation to gain a foothold
Trends in Innovation 4. The Great Talent GapContinues to Grow • Demand for science & engineering skills growing at 5% per year • Nearly 50% of today’s workforce eligible for retirement by 2012 • IBM - Additional 2.2 million IT workers needed by 2010
Top 10 Trends in Innovation 5. Time Compression Driving Consumer Behavior • People spend 2 hours less per night sleeping than in 1920 • 34% of lunches eaten on the run • 66% of people surf the web & watch TV • 43% have trouble making decisions from data overload
Trends in Innovation 6. Aging Marketplace Driving Biotech • People live 2.5 years longer every decade • U.S. spending $1.7 trillion on health care in 2003 • Expected to reach $3 trillion within 10 years
Trends in Innovation 7. The Long Tail • Fewer and fewer “hit” products • Many new “Long Tail” aggregators • New business theories
2002 – Fingerprint Payments Trend Lines 1974 – Smart Card 1950 – Credit Card 1939 – ATM Machine Money Trends 1918 – Electronic Money 1887 – Vending Machine 1879 – Cash Register 1799 – Income Tax 1659 – The First Check 1494 - Double Entry Accounting 806 AD – Paper Money 2500 BC - Banking 3200 BC – The Shekel
Question • What is the ultimate form of money? • Will we ever get there?
Strategies for Dealing with a Dead Horse • Buy a stronger whip. • Appoint a committee to study the horse. • Arrange to visit other sites to see how they ride dead horses. • Appoint an intervention team to reanimate the dead horse. • Reclassify the dead horse as living-impaired.
Strategies for Dealing with a Dead Horse • Harness several dead horses together for increased speed. • Donate the dead horse to a recognized charity, thereby deducting its full original cost. • Form a quality focus group to find profitable uses for dead horses. • Promote the dead horse to a supervisory position
The Top Strategy for Dealing with Dead Horses Click here to pay $.25 to hear the punch line of this joke
Micropayments • Micropayments are approaching viability with the computer game industry leading the way.
Gamer Profile • 53 million Americans play computer games • The average gamer is 33 years old and earns $81,000 • Last year they spent $1.2 billion on PC games • 16% of them play at least 3 hours a day
Universal Commerce • Visa • Sun Microsystems • Phillips • Cisco Scott ThompsonCTO - Visa
Universal Commerce • Many New Business Models • Potentially Greater Profits • Risk of Fraud Reduced
Trend # 1 • The Biggest Security Problems Come from Within
Security Trends • Cyberterrorism is considered a joke • If you can defend your networks against teenagers, you can defend against terrorists • Nigerian scams fading • Phishing attacks on the rise. Phone Phishing to emerge. • Pharming scams on the rise
System Thinking • Greek Mathematicians • Pythagoras • Archimedes • Roman Mathematicians • ?
System Thinking What systems do we employ today that are the equivalent of Roman Numerals?
Trend # 2 • The Income Tax System is on the Verge of Collapse
Exponential Nature of Complexity • Tax Code is over 52,000 pages long • Over 1 trillion transactions per year • We will soon be unable to compete in the global economy
Trend # 3 • The Checking Industry is Going Away - Prepaid Debit Cards to Become a Huge Industry
Prepaid Opportunities • Approx 50 million individuals operate with cash only • Estimated $840 billion for all ethnic communities, $440 billion by Hispanics. • Hispanics sent $14 Billion to Latin America last year, paying $1.4 Billion in money transfer fees.
Competition from NetFlix caused Blockbuster to cancel its late fees The same type of competition will cause banks to eliminate most of their penalty fees No More Late Fees
Trend # 4 • The End of Penalty Fees
The Fee Backlash • The online backlash against banking fees is mounting • The blogging world is growing exponentially, giving an influential voice to consumers
Trend # 5 • Convenience Stores to become a growing competitive threat to the banking industry