A Framework for International Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water Futures

1. A Framework for International Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water Futures EC Workshop on European Water Scenarios Brussels 30 June 2003 Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of Kassel, Germany

2. Some Key Questions • What should be the goals of European water scenarios? • What types of scenarios should be developed? • How should the scenarios be developed andbebrought into thepolicy process? • How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

3. Different Parts of Europe: Different Water Situation Water Stress (1995) (Withdrawals to Availability Ratio) Water Calculations: WaterGAP Source: UNESCO World Water Assessment

4. Different Parts of Europe: Different Water Needs Water Withdrawals (1995) Domestic Agriculture Percent of total water withdrawals Industry Calculations: WaterGAP Source: UNESCO World Water Assessment Quelle: WaterGAP, 2000

5. Decrease % Increase % Changing Water Needs Change in Withdrawals 1995 to 2025 Calculations: WaterGAP Source: World Water Council et al Water & Climate Dialogue IPCC A2 Scenario

6. Impact of Climate ChangeChange in Runoff (Current to 2070s) Calculations: WaterGAP Model Climate Scenario: Hadley Model small change

7. Goals for a European Water Futures Project • Develop policy-relevant and plausible scenarios that provide a vision for Europe‘s water for the next 50 years. • The scenarios should: • take into account the special characteristics of water resources in different parts of Europe, in different sectors • be developed with stakeholders & decision makers • assess sustainability of European water resources • identify unexpected developments, thresholds, emerging problems • explore possible solutions to current and emerging problems • advance the state of scientific understanding, and ... • be incorporated in policymaking

8. Some Key Questions • What should be the goals of European water scenarios? • What types of scenarios should be developed? • How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process? • How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

9. Some Key Questions • What should be the goals of European water scenarios? • What types of scenarios should be developed? • How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process? • How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

10. What Types of Scenarios are Needed for European Water Futures? Qualitative  Quantitative Qualitative Scenarios Typically in form of storylines – Narrative description of scenario, highlighting main features, and relationship between driving forces and main features.

11. ExampleStoryline – World Water Vision ScenariosBusiness as Usual (to 2025) Per capita material and energy consumption increase as lifestyles throughout the world become more like those in the North… Income inequality between and within rich and poor countries increases tensions, but conflicts over social issues that do occur remain largely within national boundaries. … In some areas with limited water and rapid population growth, the development of water infrastructure lags behind population growth, and the number of people without access to safe water increases. In most parts of the world, however, economic growth, combined with technological improvements, result in better living conditions, including increased access to safe drinking water…

12. Quantitative Scenarios • Numerical information • Commonly computed with models Model Changed model inputs Changed model outputs

13. Example of Quantitative Scenario Water Stress 2025 IPCC A2 Scenario WaterGAP Calculations

14. Advantages/Disadvantages Qualitative Scenarios Disadvantages: Arbitrary (?), tough to identify/test assumptions; do not provide numerical information. Advantages: Understandable/interesting (communicate with stakeholders, policymakers), represent many views, involve many different interests. Quantitative Scenarios Disadvantages:Models have limited view of world; not transparent; exactness gives illusion of certainty. Advantages:Scientifically-defensible (?); provide numerical information; can identify underlying assumptions, can test consistency. Conclusion: Develop both qualitative and quantitative scenarios!

15. What Types of Scenarios are Needed for European Water Futures? Not only qualitative/quantitative, but also multi-scale European Modeling European Scenarios • Data for validation • Process parameterization Boundary conditions River basin detail Boundary conditions Regional/River Basin Modeling Regional Scenarios

16. Some Key Questions • What should be the goals of European water scenarios? • What types of scenarios should be developed? • How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process? • How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

17. Some Key Questions • What should be the goals of European water scenarios? • What types of scenarios should be developed? • How should the scenarios be developed andbe brought into the policy process? • How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

18. How to Develop Scenarios?Example from Contemporary Assessments e.g. World Water Vision Scenarios (2000)

19. (3) Panel: revises outline & drafts zero order storylines (1) Establish scenario team, (1) Establish scenario team, scenario panel (2) Team: proposes goals and outline (4) Team: quantifies driving forces (4) Team: quantifies driving forces (5) Modeling groups: quantify scenarios (6) Panel: revises storylines Repeat Steps (8) Team & Panel: final revision of scenarios (7) General review of scenarios (9) Publication & distribution How Should the Scenarios be Developed? SAS (Story and Simulation) Approach

20. Summing Up the “SAS” Qualitative/Quantitative Approach • “Open” approach → Stakeholders involved in core activities, all interested parties can contribute to the scenarios • Iterative process → Enhances involvement & interaction between writers, experts, modelers, & stakeholders • Combines advantages of qualitative and quantitative scenarios. Qualitative -- understandable, represent many views, communicate with policymakers & stakeholders   Quantitative -- consistency check of assumptions of qualitative scenarios, provide quantitative data, scientifically-defensible

21. How Should the Scenarios be Brought into the Policy Process? • By developing not only quantitative but also qualitative scenarios • By participation of stakeholders & policy advisors in scenario development • After scenarios are developed  By organizing “policy exercises”, and other direct contact with policymakers & stakeholders

22. Some Key Questions • What should be the goals of European water scenarios? • What types of scenarios should be developed? • How should the scenarios be developed andbe brought into the policy process? • How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

23. Some Key Questions • What should be the goals of European water scenarios? • What types of scenarios should be developed? • How should the scenarios be developed and be brought into the policy process? • How does the knowledge base need to be improved in order to develop rich and useful scenarios?

24. Example of weak knowledge base:Net irrigation requirements (1995) mm per year Source: WaterGAP model

25. How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved? Water Demand and Use(current and future) • Household • Manufacturing • Electrical power production • Irrigation & other agriculture

26. How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved? Water Availability (current and future) • Storage • Routing • Climate variability • Climate change • Drought prediction

27. How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved? Global Connections • Impact of global climate change – regional climate modeling. • Impact of global industrial trade on European water resources. • Impact of global food trade on European water resources (virtual water).

28. How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved? Mitigation and Adaptation • Water pricing • Water storage and distribution • Conjunctive use of surface and groundwater • Wastewater control, water quality and ecosystem protection • Restoration of water quality and ecosystems • ...

29. How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved? Governance and Participation in Water Resource Development and Water Protection • Water rights • The role of government institutions • The role of private and business institutions • The role of civil society • The role of scientists and other experts

30. How Does the Knowledge Base Need to be Improved? Other Important Background Trends • Demographic trends • Trends in income and its distribution • Technological development • Institutional changes

31. Summary • Develop water scenarios for Europe that are ... • policy-relevant, advance scientific state-of-the-art • qualitative & quantitative • multi-scale • Use an „open“ and iterative approach to develop the scenarios  involvement/interaction of stakeholders & experts • Build up the knowledge base in many areas. • Incorporate the scenarios in the policy-process.

32. A Framework for International Scenario Analysis of Europe’s Water Futures EC Workshop on European Water Scenarios Brussels 30 June 2003 Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of Kassel, Germany