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Forecasting Or Envisioning: National Transport Sector

Forecasting Or Envisioning: National Transport Sector. Harun al Rasyid Lubis Prodi Teknik Sipil FTSL ITB FGD IPTEKS LP4 - ITB Bandung 22 Maret 2014. Background on Transport Development. Automobile industry  Urbanization Challenges

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Forecasting Or Envisioning: National Transport Sector

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  1. Forecasting Or Envisioning:National Transport Sector Harun al RasyidLubis ProdiTeknikSipil FTSL ITB FGD IPTEKS LP4 - ITB Bandung 22 Maret 2014

  2. Background on Transport Development • Automobile industry  Urbanization Challenges • Environmentalism (green transportation system and sustainable development concept)  Trend on transport technology development • Computer and ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) • Soft issue: Institutional, Legal, Market Vrs. Regulation • Source of fund & Financing scheme ( public, private, hybrid ) • Railway Cases &. Challenges : Regional and National  ITB direction ?

  3. Range Capacity Year Class (TEUs ) Draft Construction TEUs TEUs Meters 1 Feeder (100-499) 322 1960 6,24 2 Feedmax (500-999) 735 1966 8,29 3 Handy (1.000-1.999) 1405 1968 10,60 4 Sub Panamax (2.000-2.999) 2254 1969 13,23 5 Panamax (3.000 +) 3075 1985 16,16 6 Post Panamax (4,000 +) 4625 1988 17,20 7 Post Panamax Plus1 (5,000 +) 5225 1995 17,58 8 Post Panamax Pus 2 (6,000 +) 6375 1996 18,13 9 Post Panamax Pus 3 (7,000 +) 7250 1997 18,92 10 Post Panamax Pus 4 (8,000 +) 8050 2001 19,50 11 P. Pan Plus 5 (Clement Maersk) 9600 2002 20,80 12 P. Pan Plus 5 (Axel Maersk) 9310 2003 20,99 13 Suez Max (Gudrum Maersk) 10150 2005 21,86 14 Post Suez Max (Emma Maersk) 15200 2006 23,70 15 CoreaSTX (under development) 22000 2012 26,79 CHRONOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS INCREASEBIGGEST CONTAINER SHIP

  4. Emma Maersk Crankshaft and Operators

  5. Intelligent Transport System

  6. RULE of THUMBNatural Law of Transport Market • Air passenger transport • Toll road (depend .....) • Seaport (commercial port) • Coal train / Railway • Intercity bus ( travel ?) • Subsidized toll-road / bridge ? • Public transport (BRT) • Passenger train (urban & Intercity) • High speed train Costestable (Market) Highly regulated (subsidized)

  7. Future Organisation Structure of Railways and Interactions between Various Subsystems. Government Regulator ( safety, economic ) Regional Authorities Ministries, Central Authorities • Service Providers: • State-Owned operator • Private Operator • Contractors • Consultant • Industries • Shareholders: • State Owned Enterprise • Public Organization • Private Companies InfrastructureManager • Infrastructure Services Organizations • State Owned Enterprises • Joint Ventures • Private Companies • Other Stakeholders • Customers • Social Alliances • Employees

  8. ISU-ISU UTAMA YANG HARUS DICAKUP Government 2 Rail Regulator MACs 3 Intramodalcompetition Public sphere 2.2 Infrastructure Manager Road system 2.1 Track Access Charges Railway system Road Access Charges Infrastructure 4 Intermodal competition Public Service Road Operator 1, 2, etc. Operator1, 2, etc. 1 Priva te sphere Customers ❶. The service to the customer. ❷.Multi Annual Contracts: essential for providing Public Service (2.1) and for the maintenance and development of the infrastructure (2.2).❸.Intramodal competition. ❹. Intermodal competition. Lochman, CER, 2012

  9. CASES & CHALLENGESArah Restrukturisasi KA Dunia Belum Ada model Bisnis KA dunia yg terunggul utk bisa ditiru, namun konvergensi sdh mulai terlihat menuju integrasi vertical (antara rel  dan roda) dan regionalisasi usaha

  10. Railway & Universities Education , Future Leader R &D APA YANG TERJADI: KAlupamerekabutuhuniversitas Nyaristidakadakerjasama Dana penelitianhampirnihil Gangguankomunikasi ? (berhentibicaradenganuniversitas) MenarikdiridanjagajarakuntukberhubungandgnKampus KAMPUSlupaakanpentingnyaKeretaapi Mata ajar transportasikeretaapinyarisberhenti Berhentimelakukanpenelitianrel Gangguankomunikasi ? (berhentiberbicaradenganKA) Caripeluang lain ? (Jalanraya & angkutanudara)

  11. Strategy Technology Transfer 1. Mengalirsaja, tanpa strategy 2. LewatMekanismepasar 3. Takstisdan strategic transfer teknologi (terencana)

  12. (SOUTH KOREA) HST TRANSFER OF TECHNOLLOGY ( STRATEGI TRANSFER TEKNOLOGI KA CEPAT KOREA)

  13. TRANSFER TEKNOLOGI KA CEPAT KOREA

  14. PAIRING LOCAL DENGAN PEMASOK ASING

  15. BAGAIMANA TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER DI CHINA ?

  16. INISIATIF PEMERINTAH ADALAH KUNCI

  17. APA YANG BISA KITA LAKUKAN • Universitas • Berkomitmenuntukberinteraksisecaraberkelanjutan, keterlibatan, minat ? Dan perhatianterhadap, transportasikeretaapi • Mengidentifikasidanmendukung se efektifmungkin ”champion" di kampus • Mempekerjakandanmendukungdosenygtertarikrel • Mengembangkan program danprinsip-prinsippengajaran, kurikulumtransportasikeretaapidanrekayasa • Mendorongdanmendukungminatsiswadalammenempuhkarirdikeretaapi • Industri • Mengembangkankemitraanantarakeretaapi, pemasokdanpemerintah • Fokuspadasejumlahuniversitas • Menjangkaudenganajakan yang bermaknaspesifik • Berkomitmenpada program berkelanjutandanmencaridukungansecaraselektif ? Agar dapatmempertahankanfokusdariuniversitas' • Konsisten, dalamupayarekrutmenberkelanjutandanprogram magang

  18. ITB DIRECTION ?

  19. Traditionally segregated Segregated By Tradition Segregated By Tradition TPP SSST HST Basic Sciences and Engineering/Technology Humanities and Social Sciences complex real societal needs/problems STS Solving SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ECONOMY, AND THE SOCIETY Reform Higher Education ( M.A. Pedju, 2012)

  20. CENTERS • Carry out research and studies to solve complex problems; • Educate and incubate start-up technology based companies; • Discover, develop, and create new theories; • Publish and disseminate knowledge • May become home for graduate degree programs. • Act as point of entry for the knowledge, experience, and wisdom from the real world to university; • Facilitate interdisciplinary approach to problem solving that is essential to solve complex problems found in development projects; • Provide an interaction place for government, industry, and academics;

  21. Terima Kasih

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