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Forensic Genetics Workshop: Statistical Evaluation in Familias

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roary-schultz
26 diapositives · 397 Views · Nov 29, 2014

Learn practical statistical methods for forensic cases, including paternity testing, with a focus on principles, LR, non-standard cases, mutations, and complex pedigrees using the software Familias. Access course materials at arken.umb.no.

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  1. Familias and Forensic geneticsThore.Egeland@umb.noNorwegian University of Life SciencesSan Andrés Island, June 4, 2012

  2. "..practical workshop about the statistical evaluation of forensic cases (paternity and other family relationships) by using Familias" Purpose

  3. Principles Statisticalevaluation LR (Paternityindex) Non-standard cases Theta-correction Mutations Complexpedigrees Silent alleles. Familias. Exercises Coursehomepagearken.umb.no/~theg/familias/user: familias password: andres Contents

  4. Part I: 09-10 Review of basic forensic genetics Spanish/Portuguese summary

  5. To evaluate the uncertainty of any given proposition it is necessary to consider at least one alternative proposition. Scientific interpretation is based on questions of the kind: “What is the probability of the evidence given the proposition?” Scientific evidence is conditioned not only by the competing propositions, but also by the framework of circumstances within which they are to be evaluated Principles Books: Evett&Weir, Balding, Buckleton et al.

  6. Exercise S1 Standard paternity case • H1: The alleged father (AF) is the real father • H2: AF and the child are unrelated.

  7. Exercise S1 a) Calculate LR. First marker • Interpretation:“The data is 20 times more likely assuming • AF to be the father compared to the alternative • that some unknown man is the father”.

  8. Exercise S1 c) Calculate LR. Second marker

  9. Exercise S1 c) Calculate LR. Two markers • Interpretation:“The data is 200 times more likely assuming • AF to be the father compared to the alternative • that some unknown man is the father”. • Assumptions?

  10. Non-standard cases • Complications • Theta-correction • Mutations • Complexpedigrees • Silent alleles

  11. Part II: 10-1115:Introduction to Familias. Demo. Exercises S1-S3, S5. Plenum Videos available Spanish/Portuguese summary

  12. Part III: 1145-1230:Hands on Familias exercises Exercises S1-S6

  13. Part IV: 14-16Repetition. Exercises S4, S6. PlenumNon-standard cases

  14. Non-standard cases • Complications • Theta-correction • Mutations • Complexpedigrees • Silent alleles

  15. Theta - correction

  16. Revisit Exercise S1h (plenum)

  17. Modelling mutations • Mutation rate varies with • Sex of parent and locus.Alleles tend to mutate to close alleles: • Several models

  18. Mutations Revisit Exercise S2, S7

  19. Complex pedigrees I. Exercise S6

  20. Complex pedigrees II. Exercise S6

  21. Silent alleles I. Exercise S11

  22. Silent alleles II. Familias Silent allele

  23. Silent alleles III. Exercises S11 (S12 theoretical)

  24. Part V: 16-17Hands on exercises: S9, S10, S11If time: 'Extra' exercises on homepage:arken.umb.no/~theg/familias/

  25. Part VI: 17-18Discussion of exercises. Spanish/Portuguese summary. Questions? Exercises S1h, S4c, S5d, S9d

  26. References • Familias reference:Egeland, Mostad et al., see also http://familias.name/