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The Future Trends in Media, Technology and Business

The Future Trends in Media, Technology and Business. Joe Igoe VP/CTO WGBH. “ The knowledge of yourself will preserve you from vanity. ” --Miguel de Cervantes, Spanish novelist, poet and playwright.

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The Future Trends in Media, Technology and Business

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  1. The FutureTrends in Media, Technology and Business Joe Igoe VP/CTO WGBH WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  2. “The knowledge of yourself will preserve you from vanity.”--Miguel de Cervantes, Spanish novelist, poet and playwright

  3. “In God we trust; the rest of you bring data.”--Mark Baynes, vice president and global chief marketing officer at Kellogg, as quoted by the New York Times

  4. Philosophy Predictions Implications The Future WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  5. Philosophy Predictions Implications The Future WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  6. Factors to consider: People Power Philosophy WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  7. Factors to consider: People Power Philosophy WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  8. Genetics Genetic clock has stopped We are essentially born the same as humans were hundreds if not thousands of years ago So what does this have to do with media, technology and business? Philosophy: People WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  9. Genetically baked-in needs and wants: Ego / fame Attention / admiration Family Power Safety Community Philosophy: People • Music • Storytelling • Curiosity • Love • Growth and achievement / status WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  10. The fundamentals are timeless Twitter and Facebook are about community, ego, etc. There are many new ways to do the same old things We can look to the past to predict the future In 100 years, people will be essentially the same as they are today Same needs and wants but many new ways to fulfill them Philosophy: People WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  11. Old Habits Die Hard The habits you have at 35 are slow to change 80% of those over 45 watch TV live 56% for those under 45 Philosophy: People WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  12. Factors to consider: People Power Philosophy WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  13. Economics: Monopoly Power If you’ve got what people want, you have power Content is power Philosophy: Producer Power WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  14. Economics: Money is Power Consumers willing to part with money have power Philosophy: Consumer Power WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  15. In the long run, power moves to the ends of the chain: Producers Consumers If you’re in the middle and you’re not adding value, your role will diminish over time Philosophy: Power WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  16. Philosophy Predictions Implications The Future WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  17. Bad situation FCC report forecasts shortage by ~2013 Nearly 500% increase in data usage per line in just over a year Clearwire users consume 7GB/month Predictions: OTA Spectrum WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  18. “Shortage” is a function of price Higher prices for spectrum will raise prices for users (i.e. anyone with a smartphone, data card, etc.) Some users will reduce usage or drop out New equilibrium achieved Predictions: OTA Spectrum WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  19. Many, many hurdles to reclaiming TV spectrum Minimal chance of significant movement for several years Major sticking points around revenue splits Concerns regarding must-carry constitutionality Repacking TV stations is difficult and does very little DoD/ Government slow to release spectrum Predictions: OTA Spectrum WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  20. Spectrum auctions will happen in a few years Very conservative estimate of $100B revenue Some estimate Qualcomm’s national 6 MHz spectrum now worth $2B Predictions: OTA Spectrum WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  21. No “magic” technology fix Predictions: OTA Spectrum WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  22. Predictions: OTA Spectrum WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  23. End of new all-you-can-eat mobile data plans by 2012 End of existing all-you-can-eat plans by 2014 Heavy promotion of home cell sites by all carriers More cell sites in general Better re-use of existing frequencies Possibility of tiered data services Business class, economy class Increased availability of mobile-optimized pages Smaller image files, lower resolution streams Much more use of WiFi to mobiles Predictions: OTA Spectrum WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  24. White Spaces Unlicensed use of “in-between” space in TV spectrum Not trackable No consequences Open spectrum is a moving target Predictions: OTA Spectrum WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  25. White Spaces How about some unlicensed cars on the roads? Predictions: OTA Spectrum WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  26. There is no wired bandwidth crisis US is 22nd globally w/ average 3.8Mb/s There are very, very few services that can provide YOU 3.8Mb/s in reality Many can opt for more bandwidth and don’t Predictions: Wired Bandwidth Crisis WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  27. There are only economic hurdles here* *but we still need universal access including lifeline service Predictions: Wired Bandwidth Crisis WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  28. You will buy one You will not use it “Showroom feature” LASIK: $2k to take glasses off 3DTV: $2k to put glasses back on Predictions: 3D in the Home WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  29. Serious issues 10-15% of population can’t handle / tolerate Kids eye spacing incompatible Production methodology different Dual production expensive Active glasses are expensive Passive glasses require new TV technology not ready yet Predictions: 3D in the Home WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  30. Serious issues ATSC not ready yet HDMI 1.4 late to the game Predictions: 3D in the Home WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  31. CTAM/Nielsen survey showed those “very likely to buy” were actually LESS likely to buy after a demo Predictions: 3D in the Home WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  32. Consider this: Xbox/PS/Wii 3D package deal $1,000 Console, 42” 3D TV, 4 controllers, 4 glasses, 4 3D games Gaming usage model is more focused activity than TV viewing Still allows for interactions between players in-room or online Predictions: 3D Gaming WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  33. PC Gaming User position is relatively known and fixed Predictable distance, along center axis, one user Can eliminate glasses today Predictions: 3D Gaming WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  34. Broadcast Networks Few-to-many delivery Wide variety, wide audience due to few choices No control over schedule (pre-DVR) “Appointment TV” Cable channels More-to-many Narrower variety, narrower audiences Still limited control over schedule Predictions: Distribution • Internet • Many to many • No packaging / linearization required – item by item selection • Complete control over time • Far lower barriers to entry • Old monetization models breaking and evolving WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  35. FM will be around for 20+ years Essentially 100% of cars include FM tuner Cheap, reliable All FM band is roughly equal to 3 TV frequencies but would require moving countless licensees HD Radio is DOA and still rides above an FM analog carrier anyway Mobile DTV could offer replacement, but momentum behind FM is tremendous Predictions: Distribution - FM WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  36. Big in Japan! You’ll consider it when your data plan gets capped Carriers will be increasingly likely to order in handsets from manufacturers Preserve bandwidth for lucrative data customers Qualcomm MediaFLO failed/failing due to lack of free / premium model to build user habits Predictions: Distribution – Mobile DTV WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  37. Over-the-top Google TV, Apple TV, Netflix, etc. Success varies by service Content is power Success of platform based on relationships with content providers Google – weaker relationships (but armed with cash) Networks pulled plug on feeding Google TV almost immediately Apple – strong relationships w/ content Netflix – all about content relationships Predictions: Distribution – OTT WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  38. Over-the-top This isn’t going to make content free Good content is expensive Costs (and profits for some) need to be collected Producers will restrict content to channels that either provide direct payments or maintain advertising with program Predictions: Distribution – OTT WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  39. Over-the-top Technology is essentially trivial Barriers to entry are getting lower Netflix and others have already opened content owners to the idea Initial rates have been negotiated Much easier for competitors to follow along RedBox just announced they’re entering the market Predictions: Distribution – OTT WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  40. Over-the-top Streaming services (legit and otherwise) are numerous ~25% of streaming is YouTube ~25% is from other sites in the top 25 ~50% is from sites in the #26-50 bracket Predictions: Distribution – OTT WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  41. Predictions: Distribution – OTT Network Station/ Affiliate Consumer Producer WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  42. Syndicator / Distributor Predictions: Distribution – OTT Network Station/ Affiliate Consumer Producer Cable Network Cable/Sat/Telco OTT Aggregator Wireless Carrier WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  43. Syndicator / Distributor Predictions: Distribution – OTT Network Station/ Affiliate Consumer Producer Cable Network Cable/Sat/Telco OTT Aggregator Wireless Carrier WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  44. Syndicator / Distributor Predictions: Distribution – OTT Network Station/ Affiliate Consumer Producer Cable Network Cable/Sat/Telco OTT Aggregator Wireless Carrier WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  45. Syndicator / Distributor Predictions: Distribution – OTT Network Station/ Affiliate Consumer Producer Cable Network Cable/Sat/Telco OTT Aggregator Wireless Carrier WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  46. Predictions: Distribution – OTT WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  47. Over-the-top Will achieve mainstream success when it doesn’t look and feel like OTT, but like TV But cable/telco companies have some monopoly power as well Even with OTT, you need them to deliver data Expect a major shift in your bill toward a high data cost and lower programming cost as programming alternatives emerge Predictions: Distribution – OTT WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  48. Lots of hype about how Gen Y consumes media Despite some piercings, Gen Y are people like the rest of us They will get married They will have kids They will be tired They will sit in front of the TV with their kids …and yes, they will have secondary devices as well Predictions: Generation Y WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  49. Gen Y parents will still be focused on their kids just like every other generation in recent history Family time will still matter Behavior in young adulthood is not a great predictor of later habits Predictions: Generation Y WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

  50. Predictions: The Living Room WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop

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