Department of the Interior Indian Affairs

1. Department of the InteriorIndian Affairs Background on the Questions We Face in Producing the American Indian Population and Labor Force Report Steven Payson, Economist October 20, 2012 Annual Alaska Federation of Natives Conference Anchorage, Alaska

2. Reasons for the Report • Importance of accurate statistics on population and employment for: • Our own knowledge and understanding • Development of policies for economic growth • Assessment of policies that were already implemented • Required every two years by the Indian Employment, Training, and Related Services Demonstration Act of 1992, as amended (Pub. L. 102-477, § 17)

3. Public Law 102-477 Requires [A] report on the population, by gender, eligible for the services which the Secretary provides to Indian people. The report shall include, … information at the national level by State, Bureau of Indian Affairs Service Area, and tribal level for the – (1) total service population; (2) the service population under age 16 and over 64; (3) the population available for work, including those not considered to be actively seeking work; (4) the employed population, including those employed with annual earnings below the poverty line; and (5) the numbers employed in private sector positions and in public sector positions.

4. History (1) • Last report provided to Congress in 2007 for the year 2005 • Survey was conducted in 2010 and earlier. • The 2010 survey data were processed and a draft report was prepared in 2012. • The 2012 report could not be cleared because of inconsistencies and inaccuracies in survey data. • Survey was not clear about how tribes should answer the questions.

5. History (2) • Criticisms of the non-release of the report were raised by tribal leaders, Congressional representatives, the media, and others. • DOI-Indian Affairs is working to produce a new report that: • Corrects inaccuracies and inconsistencies that prevented release of the 2012 report; • Is issued as early as possible.

6. Challenge • Producing accurate report by 2013 • Issue: A new survey cannot be designed, approved, implemented, and analyzed by the end of 2013. • Obtain input on draft survey • OMB approval under Paperwork Reduction Act • Options: • Produce an interim report for 2013 using available data from the Census Bureau. • Rely on new survey data, knowing that this will likely delay the next report until 2014.

7. Census Data • Census data removes ambiguity but relies on specific, established definitions of population. • Our disagreement with the Census population definition by geographic area would require: • Caveats, special labels on estimates, and a separate appendix in the interim report. • Consideration of another future survey with alternative definitions

8. Fundamental Questions • Is there disagreement with the Census Bureau’s methods of measurement? • If so, can different measurement standards be agreed upon, and then feasibly practiced? • If not, is there still good reason for DOI-Indian Affairs to conduct a separate survey? • Is the cost/burden of responding to a survey too great for tribes to be worth having a different measurement of population?

9. Key Principle on Measurement Comparability • Unemployment and other economic measures must be measured the same way by different tribes, and more generally, by different countries. • For example, when international organizations compare economic statistics like unemployment across nations, they ask all the nations to provide their statistics by the same definitions. • When countries do not, the international organizations make adjustments to the submitted numbers to ensure that the statistics are comparable in those organizations’ published reports.

10. Bottom Line on Measurement • All Federal agencies, including DOI-Indian Affairs, are required to meet “Quality of Information” standards before they publish statistical information. • The last two Labor Force Reports did not meet such standards. • This is why the last published report was for the year 2005.

11. Principles and Practices in Federal Statistics (1) • Excerpts from Principles and Practices for a Federal Statistical Agency (National Academies, 2009) – the “Purple Book” for Federal statistical agencies: • “An effective statistical agency actively explores ways to work with other agencies to meet current information needs” {e.g., Indian Affairs working with the Census Bureau}. • “Efforts to standardize concepts and definitions … contribute to effective coordination of statistical agency endeavors.” • “A statistical agency must be able to provide objective information … that is as accurate and comprehensible as possible and is not designed to promote a particular policy position or group interest.”

12. Principles and Practices in Federal Statistics (2) • More Excerpts from the “Purple Book”: • “To have credibility, an agency must be free—and must be perceived to be free—of political interference and policy advocacy.” • “Also important for credibility is … a strong internal and external evaluation program to assess and improve its data systems.” • “A statistical agency should be open about its data and their strengths and limitations, taking as much care to understand and explain how its statistics may fall short of accuracy as it does to produce accurate data in the first place.”

13. Measuring “Unemployment” • The term “unemployment” does not appear in P.L. 102-477, §17, which requires the American Indian Population and Labor Force Report. • But the Act asks for counts of people employed, and counts of people available for work, so there is an implicit measure of people not working who are available for work. • This is not the same thing as “unemployment” but it is confused with “unemployment” in: • Previous Labor Force Reports • Media Attention to the Labor Force Report • Public Interpretation of the Report’s findings • It is the most looked at statistic in the report, even though it is not explicitly required by the Act.

14. Rules on Measuring Unemployment • Public Law 102-477 requires DOI to produce the report “in consultation with the Secretary of Labor.” • DOL states: • “Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.” • In FAQ’s on its website, “Is there only one official definition of unemployment? Yes, there is only one official definition of unemployment …”

15. Rules on Getting a Survey Approved • Nothing in the Act requiresIndian Affairs to conduct its own survey if the information required is from other sources. • In meeting the requirements of the Paperwork Reduction Act, “Agencies must …ensure that the collection does not duplicate other information accessible to the agency.” • Source: “Questions and Answers When Designing Surveys for Information Collections,” OMB, January 2006. • This brings us to the discussion (below) on whether the information is already available from the Census Bureau.

16. Responses from the Dear Tribal Leader Letter of July 2, 2012 • Twelve tribes provided comments on the survey form shown in the Dear Tribal Leader Letter. Of these 12 tribes: • 2 indicated that they could provide the service population data; • 5 asked for an explanation on how to provide the data; and • 5 indicated that they could not provide service population data. • Two of the five that could not provide service population data said that these data should be based on data from the Census Bureau. • The responding tribes indicated that they could not provide reliable employment statistics, and four of those said that such statistics should be based on Census data.

17. The “Census-Bureau Factor” (1) • Historically, and to some extent still today, survey enumerators from the Census Bureau have faced challenges in being unwelcome in their interactions with tribal residents. • Such challenges have, in turn, created limitations on the accuracy of their Census-based statistics on Indian Country. • Census Bureau surveys use “self-identification” to determine American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) population counts. • This has rightfully been criticized as inaccurate in contrast to tribal enrollment. • However, these data can be made more accurate when controlled for geography (e.g., tribal statistical areas).

18. The “Census-Bureau Factor” (2) • In spite of the above-mentioned criticisms of the Census Bureau’s data: • Tribes have often used, and have been advised by Indian Affairs to use, the Census Bureau’s data for the Labor Force Report when other data are not available. • Public assessment of the Labor Force Report will be based on comparisons with Census Bureau Data. • Public outreach by the Census Bureau in Indian Country has been extensive in recent years, through partnerships, consultation, and collaboration with tribes. • The Census Bureau normally collects information for other Federal agencies, e.g., the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

19. The “Census-Bureau Factor” (3) • DOI-Indian Affairs is not a “statistical agency” and is not well equipped to design, manage, and process a labor force survey: • Indian affairs has no statisticians or survey methodologists on its staff, and only a few economists who are fully engaged in other assignments. • Similar limitations exist in terms of the work required in information technology to process the survey results. • Such limitations apply not only in producing the statistical estimates, but in defending those estimates against potential public scrutiny. • These limitations would not be applicable if Census Bureau statistics were used for the Labor Force Report.

20. The “Census-Bureau Factor” (4) • Census Bureau statistics may not adequately meet the requirements that tribes would like to have for statistics in the Labor Force Report. • If that is the case, two solutions are possible: • Indian Affairs conducts its own survey, as before. • Indian Affairs enters into an interagency agreement with the Census Bureau to take measures to improve its statistics on Indian Country. • Given the relative capabilities of the two agencies, the second option may be more productive and efficient. • The second option may also be less burdensome on tribes.

21. Surveys of Tribes Versus Surveys of Tribal Populations • Tribes have been advised to conduct their own internal survey of their service populations to acquire the statistics needed for the Labor Force Report. • Other indicators might have statistical biases. • Example: Indian Health Service records might exclude individuals who have not received such services. • Policy factors may play a role in influencing estimates. • Example: American Indians who may be receiving services from the tribe answering the survey or from a neighboring tribe, may be given the “benefit of the doubt” by being included in tribe answering the survey.

22. The “Census-Bureau Factor” (6) • Tribes conducting their own internal survey face substantial constraints in terms of resources and technical expertise. • In addition to the survey results, the Office of Management and Budget, in order to approve the Labor Force Report, would want there to be documented evidence that: • These surveys were thorough, accurate and reliable, and • Objective, i.e., uninfluenced by policy considerations. • Both of these burdens would be eliminated if Census Bureau data were used for the Labor Force Report. • The Census Bureau has no policy objectives other than the agency’s essential mission -- producing accurate statistics on strictly defined variables.

23. Questions in the Forthcoming Consultations (1) • Do tribes have the information needed for the Labor Force Report readily available? • Would tribes be willing to respond to the Labor Force Survey? • Is there other information, beyond that which is specifically required, that tribes would be willing to provide in a survey, if the information will help Federal or tribal programming?

24. Questions in the Forthcoming Consultations (2) • Should the Department use information from the Census Bureau to answer the questions for the report? • If so, what kind of information should be acquired from the Census Bureau’s published statistics? • If not, is it a matter of the availability of the Census Bureau’s statistics or a matter of their accuracy (or both)? • If the Department can obtain all of the information needed for the report from the Census Bureau, should it still conduct a survey to ask tribes for this or other information?

25. Questions in the Forthcoming Consultations (3) • The Department is considering using information from the Census Bureau, rather than a survey, for the 2013 report because producing a report based on survey information will require additional steps that will not be possible by the 2013 deadline. • What are your views on this approach? • If this approach is followed, should the report include a caveat that Census information is used only because survey information is not yet available, and that future reports may contain different estimates based on a survey issued to tribes?

26. Questions in the Forthcoming Consultations (4) • Are there other options for obtaining this information that the Department should consider? • How should “service population” be defined? For example: • Should it include individuals in the tribe’s general location, or individuals enrolled in the tribe who may not be in the tribe’s location but may still be eligible for services? • If people are in an area where they may receive services from more than one tribe, should they be counted only in the service population of the tribe where they are enrolled? • To what extent should service population be measured in terms of geography as opposed to tribal enrollment?