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Extremist Network Interdiction

Extremist Network Interdiction. LCDR Michael Albrecht LCDR Brian Colburn LT Michael Wiederholt. Current Captured US POWs. Warren Weinstein. Caitlan Coleman. Sgt Bowe Bergdahl. Initial Problem Statement. How do we rescue our American captives? Options: Department of Defense

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Extremist Network Interdiction

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  1. Extremist Network Interdiction LCDR Michael Albrecht LCDR Brian Colburn LT Michael Wiederholt

  2. Current Captured US POWs Warren Weinstein Caitlan Coleman Sgt Bowe Bergdahl

  3. Initial Problem Statement • How do we rescue our American captives? • Options: • Department of Defense • Holding location is believed in the vicinity of Miramshah, Pakistan • Intractable option due to geo-political boundaries and sensitivities • State Department • Negotiations • Prisoner Swap

  4. Roadblock to Negotiations? Drone Strikes • 5 Nov 2013, HakimullahMeshud was killed by a suspected drone strike. • Claimed to be the reason the Taliban left the peace table. • Double-Edged Sword • Significantly degrades the ability, and influence, of our enemies. • Possibility of severing the ties between the Islamic Emirate and the insurgents who are directly in control of the American captives.

  5. New Problem Statement With continued drone strikes, how resilient is the terrorist network communication?

  6. Intel Center - Unclassified Question: How to connect the all the dots? Mullah Omar Dirt Bag  But not necessarily “terrorist” Associate the connection between the Islamic Emirate to the captives

  7. Compress Chart to Excel • Key Elements: • Name • Unique Id • Associated Shura/Network • Connections • Provinces • Difficulty to attack • Whether or not this person is attackable

  8. The Area of Responsibility

  9. Shura& Province Nodes

  10. Insurgent Nodes

  11. The Network

  12. Shortest-Path 10 50 10 5

  13. GAMS Formulation Shortest Path Objective

  14. GAMS Formulation Interdiction Dual

  15. Resilience Curve Order of Attack: 1. Sirajuddin Haqqani 2. Taj Mir Jawad 3. Mullah Omar

  16. Attack Results

  17. Resilience Curve Order of Attack: 1. Ahmed Taha Khalid 2. Badruddin Haqqani 3. Jalaluddin Haqqani 4. Maulawi Sangin Zadran 5. Mohammed Nasir 6. Sirajuddin Haqqani

  18. Omar not attacked

  19. Resilience Curve Order of Attack: 1. Ahmed Taha Khalid 2. Eid Mohammed 3. Hamid Dullah 4. Maulawi Mohammed Ahmed 5. Maulawi Sangin Zadran 6. Sarwar Khan 7. Sirajuddin Haqqani 8. Taj Mir Jawad

  20. Omar and Jalaluddin not attacked

  21. Measure of Effectiveness • Results list • Ahmed Taha Khalid • Eid Mohammed • Hamid Dullah • Maulawi Mohammed Ahmed • MaulawiSanginZadran • Sarwar Khan • SirajuddinHaqqani • Taj Mir Jawad

  22. Uses of Model • Identify critical nodes • Sever communications between insurgent entities • Fracture any two insurgent networks • Modify the start and end nodes • Prevent unwanted results • Conflicting directives between agencies • DPMO / State Department work to negotiate release vs • DoD strikes to degrade insurgent capabilities

  23. Limitations / Follow-On Work • The list is roughly “all or nothing” • Many multiple paths • Does not detail the significance of any one individual • Higher fidelity influence information is required • Run model on CLASSIFIEDNetwork • Unknown networks or individuals? • Other Networks other than Islamic Emirate to negotiate with Haqqani • Unknown Networks that could influence Haqqani • Purchase a license through Intel Center (NPS Investment) • Just need $3K-$100k  no big deal

  24. Resources • Intelcenter.com • Network graph • Gams code by Dr. Ned Dimitrov • Modified spstop.gms • Various news articles • www.longwarjournal.com

  25. Questions?

  26. QUESTIONS?COMMENTS?

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