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Carl L Raish

2013 Four-CP Response for Transmission- and Distribution-Connected ESIIDs in ERCOT Competitive Area. Carl L Raish. 4 CP Response Methodology. Analysis was limited to ESIIDs in competitive ERCOT areas with ‘BUSIDRRQ’ profile types

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Carl L Raish

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  1. 2013 Four-CP Response for Transmission- and Distribution-Connected ESIIDs in ERCOT Competitive Area Carl L Raish DSWG - June 25, 2014

  2. 4 CP Response Methodology • Analysis was limited to ESIIDs in competitive ERCOT areas with ‘BUSIDRRQ’ profile types • Transmission charges are based on ESIID-specific load during CP intervals • ESIIDs classified by connection at transmission or distribution voltage level • Classified days as CP Days, Near-CP Days and Non-CP Days • Near-CP days were iteratively determined • Started with 12 possible days • Removed days from list if no response detected for the date • Ended up with 7 Near-CP days • Non-CP days were all remaining non-holiday weekdays (June 1 – Sep 30) • Classified ESIIDs based on Weather Sensitivity and Load Factor • Weather sensitivity (R2 for week-day use vs average temperature >= 0.6) • Load Factor based on week-day afternoon usage (1:00 PM – 6:00 PM) • High LF > 0.85 • Medium LF > 0.60 • Low LF ≤ 0.60

  3. 4 CP Response Methodology (continued) • ESIIDs were classified into three response categories based on how they modified usage on CP and Near-CP days • Reduced Day Use -- ESIIDs that lowered usage from 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM) on CP/Near-CP days. • Reduced CP Hour Use -- ESIID that lowered usage during 4:00 PM – 5:00 PM on CP/Near-CP days (but did not reduce day use). • Did not respond – All remaining ESIIDS

  4. 4 CP Response Methodology (continued) Number of Transmission ESIIDs by Response Type

  5. 4 CP Response Methodology (continued) Number of Distribution ESIIDs by Response Type * WS response and type needs additional analysis

  6. 4 CP Response Methodology (continued) • Baselines were created at the ESIID-level using Non-CP days (May 1 – Sep 30). • Average of 10 days before and 10 days after the CP/Near-CP day. • Baselines were aggregated in groups by response type and load factor category • WS baseline was ERS Regression baseline • Scalar day-of-adjustment applied at the aggregated group level. • Day-of-adjustment window: 0:15 AM – 1:00 PM • Baseline energy for the adjustment window was scaled to the actual energy for the CP/Near-CP day • No scalar adjustment was applied to the group with ‘day-use’ response • Adjusted and unadjusted baselines are shown on graphs for non-responding ESIIDs • In general these ESIIDs had actual use higher than the baseline on CP/Near-CP days than the unadjusted baseline • If these ESIIDs are included in the overall class performance, their increased usage would offset reductions by the remaining ESIIDs

  7. 4 CP Response Methodology (continued) • September 3, 2013 CP day special handling • Load shapes were different … probably related to being the day following the Labor Day holiday. • Tables and graphs show reductions for baselines with and without day-of-adjustment • Reductions based on scalar adjusted baselines reflect the actual load reduction on that day • Reductions based on unadjusted baselines are probably closer to reductions on more normal CP days.

  8. 15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  9. 15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  10. 15-Minute Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs Largest Combined Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 7

  11. Identify Near-CP Days – June 2013 4CP @ IE 17:00 Near-CP w/ response

  12. Identify Near-CP Days – July 2013 Near-CP no response 4CP @ IE 17:00 Near-CP w/ response

  13. Identify Near-CP Days – August 2013 4CP @ IE 17:00 Near-CP no response Near-CP w/ response

  14. Identify Near-CP Days – September 2013 4CP @ IE 16:45 Near-CP no response Note: Sep 1, 2013 Sunday, Sep 2 Labor Day

  15. 15-Minute Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs Largest Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 1

  16. 15-Minute Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs Largest Summer 2013 reduction occurred on June 28

  17. 15-Minute Reductions on Near CP Days - 2013 Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  18. Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  19. Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  20. Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on 4 CP Days - 2013 Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs Largest Combined Summer 2013 reduction occurred on August 7

  21. Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  22. Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near Peak Days - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  23. Hour-ending 17:00 Reductions on Near CP Days - 2013 Transmission plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  24. Reduction Percent by Load Factor - Transmission

  25. Reduction Percent by Load Factor - Distribution

  26. Percent Reduction by Load Factor - Transmission

  27. Percent Reduction by Load Factor - Distribution

  28. June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  29. June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  30. June CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  31. July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  32. July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  33. July CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  34. August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  35. August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  36. August CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  37. September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  38. September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  39. September CP Day Load – Responding ESIIDs - 2013 Transmission Plus Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  40. June CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  41. June CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  42. July CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  43. July CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  44. August CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  45. August CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Distribution Connected ESIIDs

  46. September CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013 Transmission Connected ESIIDs

  47. September CP Day Load by Reduction Type - 2013

  48. Questions? ON OFF craish@ercot.com 512/248-3876

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